Realignment Carousel Spins Up again (USC and UCLA to Big 10)

[Stickboy46]

Oliver Luck reportedly determining expansion candidates for the Pac-12 (msn.com)

The guy they are quoting has been back and forth between saying its going to be a raid vs a merger. Exit fees are a real roadblock for a raid considering there is not solid media deal and the PAC4 will likely be gone in 2 years.

[TrackSuitAndTie]

This account throws a lot of stuff out into the ether, but this could be bad for WSU. I think I read somewhere the AAC would need at least 75% of members (11/14 or 12/15 if WSU and Navy both get votes) in favor of dissolution, so you'd hope we'd be included in a new Pac-12 if that were to happen...

You'd have to think that no AAC school in their right mind would vote to dissolve the conference if they weren't going to be included in the new league. If this really goes ahead, I could see the AAC bringing 12 members to the new Pac-12, with Charlotte and FAU being left out. That gets the new league to 16 and allows room four at least for teams from the MWC (think SDSU, CSU, AFA, and BSU) to join. Of course, this is all speculation.

[Maizerunner08]

All these rando twitter/X users with “sources”

[TrackSuitAndTie]

All these rando twitter/X users with “sources”

While not always being right, this account has been spot on before in this realignment cycle (broke details on Pac-12 Apple TV+ deal before anyone else, for instance) so it's worth some consideration.

[SubGod22]

This account throws a lot of stuff out into the ether, but this could be bad for WSU. I think I read somewhere the AAC would need at least 75% of members (11/14 or 12/15 if WSU and Navy both get votes) in favor of dissolution, so you'd hope we'd be included in a new Pac-12 if that were to happen...

You'd have to think that no AAC school in their right mind would vote to dissolve the conference if they weren't going to be included in the new league. If this really goes ahead, I could see the AAC bringing 12 members to the new Pac-12, with Charlotte and FAU being left out. That gets the new league to 16 and allows room four at least for teams from the MWC (think SDSU, CSU, AFA, and BSU) to join. Of course, this is all speculation.

It would be near impossible to dissolve the league unless nearly everyone was guaranteed a spot.

Also, I doubt BSU would be one of the four. The PAC schools would already be plugging their nose enough to take on some of the AAC schools in order to save their conference. I would bet Nevada would be more likely to be the 4th member of the MWC. They wouldn't want any more CA schools and the rest of the available schools would be in lightly populated states. Nevada wouldn't bring much to football but has had some solid basketball and are I believe the best academic institution that would be left.

I'm also not sure Aresco would be willing to push for any sort of merger that didn't include everyone. I'm also not sure how the PAC allegedly holds the cards outside of the conference name. Unless ESPN is going to jump in and make something happen. Do the AAC schools want to give up ESPN for Apple streaming? Exposure still matters. I know Apple may be willing to overpay because they want to get into more sports, but I don't see being relegated to Apple as being a positive. I thought it was dumb when MLS did it and I think it would be equally dumb for a college conference to do it.

[1972Shocker]

I don't follow this nearly as closely as most of you do but my sense is that, at this point, the PAC4's preference seems to be to try to rebuild the PAC12 conference.

I'm thinking that the PAC12 trying to cherry pick both from the AAC and MWC will be their strategy. Perhaps pick off 4 AAC teams to get to 8 teams for 2024 and then add another 4 teams from the MWC a year later to get to 12 teams. The remaining AAC and MWC would then merge resulting in a 18 team conference. It would not surprise me to see the PAC, AAC and MWC get together to try to work our a mutually agreeable realignment deal to take effect in 2024. I think that would be a total of 30 teams. Perhaps find 2 more members resulting in two 16 team conferences.

IIRC, when the Big 12 looked to be on the verge of imploding the AAC was making noise about how they were going to absorb much of the remaining Big 12. We saw how that worked out. Admittedly, this situation is different as the PAC12 has totally been ravaged and, with what teams remain available to them is far less attractive that what was available to the Big 12.

I am a little surprised that the B1G didn't also take Stanford and Cal to get to 20 teams. Was that a B1G decision, or did Stanford and Cal decline an opportunity which doesn't seem likely.

In any case, it is pretty clear that a rebuilt PAC12, if that does happen, will be a significantly diminished conference.

From my perspective I see the AAC and the MWC as being the tail on this dog, and Wichita State, without football, is probably at the very tip of the tail. Hopefully, this get resolved sooner than later just to eliminate the uncertainty.

[SubGod22]

The XII/AAC talk revolved around more XII teams being taken by other conferences and then the AAC being in a position to absorb them. It didn't work out that way, but the PAC did fall apart and it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

No matter what, the PAC schools will be making much less than the other four top conferences. I can't imagine anyone leaving the AAC unless the PAC has a media deal lined up with real numbers. Otherwise, it would be pretty risky for the AAC schools to pay 20Mish to leave to go to a conference that has no guarantees right now.

If the PAC does manage to get four AAC schools, it would be interesting to see which ones. One would think at the top of their list would be SMU, Rice and Tulane. Great academic schools in some really good markets. How far east would they be willing to go? Would they be able to hold their nose and take Memphis? It's hard to say, but academically I think USF would probably be the next best the AAC has to offer.

If they pull four from the MWC eventually, I would still stick with expecting them to take SDSU, Nevada, AFA, and Colorado State.

I'd still think that ESPN would pay up to get the PAC4 with the AAC schools with the plan to add 2 MWC schools. Even if that included a conference name change it would seem to be beneficial to all.

[Stickboy46]

This account throws a lot of stuff out into the ether, but this could be bad for WSU. I think I read somewhere the AAC would need at least 75% of members (11/14 or 12/15 if WSU and Navy both get votes) in favor of dissolution, so you'd hope we'd be included in a new Pac-12 if that were to happen...

You'd have to think that no AAC school in their right mind would vote to dissolve the conference if they weren't going to be included in the new league. If this really goes ahead, I could see the AAC bringing 12 members to the new Pac-12, with Charlotte and FAU being left out. That gets the new league to 16 and allows room four at least for teams from the MWC (think SDSU, CSU, AFA, and BSU) to join. Of course, this is all speculation.

If i remember right, we do have a vote. So I would think we would logically be included as a pair with Navy who is in no way getting left out. I'd think the ones that might be at risk of not being included are probably Charlotte, FAU and maybe Temple or ECU. The farther east ones. USF likely gets the nod due to being AAU.

[Shoxing Me Softly]

Just seems to me schools like Stanford and Cal are not going to be associated some of the AAC (including Wichita State).

I would assume they are going to push very hard to rebuild the PAC and a full in merger will only happen if it has to and rebuild just isn’t possible financially.

Say PAC does rebuild then obviously SMU, Tulane are both gone for sure and then I’d guess Rice and Memphis.

AAC still has 10 teams at that point counting Navy/Wichita as one. I would be perfectly content with that configuration. They will probably backfill though because you have to have plenty of teams for future raiding.

Not an emergency but WSU reads needs to A) say f it and start football so it can actually be a full athletic department like the league it’s in. Or B) figure out how to start a league with SLU, Dayton, VCU and 6 other non football schools between here and east coast.

One of these days not being like the rest of the league is going to bite Wichita State in the butt.

[Stickboy46]

Just seems to me schools like Stanford and Cal are not going to be associated some of the AAC (including Wichita State).

I would assume they are going to push very hard to rebuild the PAC and a full in merger will only happen if it has to and rebuild just isn’t possible financially.

Say PAC does rebuild then obviously SMU, Tulane are both gone for sure and then I’d guess Rice and Memphis.

AAC still has 10 teams at that point counting Navy/Wichita as one. I would be perfectly content with that configuration. They will probably backfill though because you have to have plenty of teams for future raiding.

Not an emergency but WSU reads needs to A) say f it and start football so it can actually be a full athletic department like the league it’s in. Or B) figure out how to start a league with SLU, Dayton, VCU and 6 other non football schools between here and east coast.

One of these days not being like the rest of the league is going to bite Wichita State in the butt.

From a basketball standpoint, if we lose SMU, Memphis, Tulane ... the league is pretty bad. I'd still have to understand why any school would pay an exit fee to jump into that mess with so many unknowns. Obviously SMU will whore themselves out to anyone that is remotely P5 as we have seen, but the others i'm not sure.

Also if Stanford/Cal is not willing to associate with some schools and that's part of the decision .. then if we aren't getting in Memphis isn't either.

As far as joining a league with SLU, Dayton, VCU and others .. that's the A10 .. not an ideal situation based on their results and their media contract. I'm pretty sure we would be welcomed with open arms there if the AAC blows up. I'm just not sure its better than where we are at right now at least.

[TrackSuitAndTie]

The exit fee for departing the AAC with ~10 months notice is going to be a lot more than the recent fee departing schools paid ($17m) with ~24 months notice.

[Shoxing Me Softly]

From a basketball standpoint, if we lose SMU, Memphis, Tulane ... the league is pretty bad. I'd still have to understand why any school would pay an exit fee to jump into that mess with so many unknowns. Obviously SMU will whore themselves out to anyone that is remotely P5 as we have seen, but the others i'm not sure.

Also if Stanford/Cal is not willing to associate with some schools and that's part of the decision .. then if we aren't getting in Memphis isn't either.

As far as joining a league with SLU, Dayton, VCU and others .. that's the A10 .. not an ideal situation based on their results and their media contract. I'm pretty sure we would be welcomed with open arms there if the AAC blows up. I'm just not sure it’s better than where we are at right now at least.

Memphis is an R1 institution and has great Basketball with you guessed it, a football team. Wichita State is R2 with no football.

Regarding AAC with no SMU, Tulane, Memphis. I personally would still be ok with it, especially if UNT, UAB, FAU can keep up their current levels (obviously FAU won’t but if it can just be solid). Regardless still prefer over Valley.

A-10 sucks, it’s a bloated mess. I talking forming a league with those 3 (SLU, VCU, UD) and finding another 6 for a total of 10. Why Non football leagues who don’t make money decided going over 10 teams was a good idea I’ll never know.

This is just me spitballing, WSU will never get football and starting a conference is impossible.

[SubGod22]

As far as joining a league with SLU, Dayton, VCU and others .. that's the A10 .. not an ideal situation based on their results and their media contract. I'm pretty sure we would be welcomed with open arms there if the AAC blows up. I'm just not sure its better than where we are at right now at least.

The A10 would not be good for Wichita. The media payout is bad and the travel expenses would be much greater than the AAC as the bulk of the conference is in the northeast. It would also remove WSU from most of their student recruitment areas. Wichita needs to be associated with Texas.

Also, had we added football 20 or so years ago, we'd be in a better place to have a chance somewhere should things go to total ****.

[Shock Top]

Memphis is an R1 institution and has great Basketball with you guessed it, a football team. Wichita State is R2 with no football.

With the growth the university and campus is undergoing, does WSU ever get to the R1 or AAU level?

(or will they be continued to be hamstrung by KBOR in favor of KU?)

[SubGod22]

With the growth the university and campus is undergoing, does WSU ever get to the R1 or AAU level?

(or will they be continued to be hamstrung by KBOR in favor of KU?)

We would need a number of new PHD programs for R1 status. There's a minimum requirement there for R1. I don't remember off the top of my head how many we would need, but it's a fair amount.