Realignment Carousel Spins Up again (USC and UCLA to Big 10)

[Stickboy46]

PAC is not getting a $200 million deal. No way no how. Not as they are currently constructed. Weak leadership brings weak results.

I mean .. it was pretty well confirmed that was the offer on the table. So believe what you want. The PAC 12 just didnt' want to settle for less than the B12 and didn't want it all streaming.

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

I will believe what I want but thanks for instructing me I can do so. How long have they been trying to get a deal done? If there were legit offers it would have happened already to save their membership.

[TrackSuitAndTie]

So say the current PAC-9 gets offered $20-22 million per school with minimal linear exposure. This appears to be the maximum value that has been offered. What incentive would any of the Pac-12 schools want to stay in the conference if they have the opportunity to move to the Big 12?

With a gap of 10+ million between the reported Pac-12 offer and the B12 media deal, the issue of streaming vs. linear, and the fact that there is no exit fee to leave the Pac-12 at the moment it becomes very hard for a university president to make a case for staying in the conference without costing the school millions annually.

People keep saying AAC and MWC will still want to join the Pac-12, even if it loses more members, but what will a media deal look like if the conference loses 1-3 more members with the almost guarantee that remaining members will also be looking to leave the conference at first opportunity? I'm sure the powers that be will find a way to screw over the MWC and AAC, but given the current intel the Pac-12 sounds more like the Big East in 2013 than the Big 12 in 2021.

[Stickboy46]

I will believe what I want but thanks for instructing me I can do so. How long have they been trying to get a deal done? If there were legit offers it would have happened already to save their membership.

There is an official meeting tomorrow with the Pac12 commission and all the presidents to present basically exactly what I typed above. The reason its not done already? The Pac 12 Presidents think they are on the same level as the Big 10. They don't want to settle for less than B12 dollars. Now they are all scrambling to save themselves.

[Stickboy46]

So say the current PAC-9 gets offered $20-22 million per school with minimal linear exposure. This appears to be the maximum value that has been offered. What incentive would any of the Pac-12 schools want to stay in the conference if they have the opportunity to move to the Big 12?

With a gap of 10+ million between the reported Pac-12 offer and the B12 media deal, the issue of streaming vs. linear, and the fact that there is no exit fee to leave the Pac-12 at the moment it becomes very hard for a university president to make a case for staying in the conference without costing the school millions annually.

People keep saying AAC and MWC will still want to join the Pac-12, even if it loses more members, but what will a media deal look like if the conference loses 1-3 more members with the almost guarantee that remaining members will also be looking to leave the conference at first opportunity? I'm sure the powers that be will find a way to screw over the MWC and AAC, but given the current intel the Pac-12 sounds more like the Big East in 2013 than the Big 12 in 2021.

You are exactly right that any Pac 12 school will jump if offered. That's why Arizona is basically a done deal to the B12 (Board of Regents meeting set for tomorrow) and the other 4 corner schools are trying. Oregon and Washington are really hoping for B10 but they might jump for a bird in the hand. The bump up to the B10 would probably pay for any exit fee in like 1 year.

As far as the next media deal looks like .. if a school can go from 7 to 20, they will .. but the word being tossed around is that the commissioner is going to move to propose a move to 12 and adding the MWC/AAC at a half share (so 10-11 million). I don't see how that can be worth it with the extra travel. MWC is basically off the board with their 34 million exit fee.

[TrackSuitAndTie]

As far as the next media deal looks like .. if a school can go from 7 to 20, they will .. but the word being tossed around is that the commissioner is going to move to propose a move to 12 and adding the MWC/AAC at a half share (so 10-11 million). I don't see how that can be worth it with the extra travel. MWC is basically off the board with their 34 million exit fee.

The half share really could be a killer, especially when there is a high likelihood of further Pac-12 defections in the coming years. I believe SMU made around $8.3 million from the AAC last year. Tulane, by virtue of their NY6 bowl appearance, received around $11 million in media revenue.

SMU might still want to leave just because they have an ungodly amount of money and want to be P5, but it might not make sense to some of the other schools rumored to be interested.

As an aside, how funny is it that Tulsa applied to the Pac-12? Of all the AAC schools, Tulsa is probably the one I would peg as least likely to move on from the conference lmao.

[BAShocker]

Breaking: The PAC 12 will be announcing the following additions to the conference:
Alaska Tech
Honolulu County College
Northeast Guam Territory
Juarez U.

[Kung Wu]

Breaking: The PAC 12 will be announcing the following additions to the conference:
Alaska Tech
Honolulu County College
Northeast Guam Territory
Juarez U.

So they are trying to establish a soccer presence?

[TrackSuitAndTie]

The half share really could be a killer, especially when there is a high likelihood of further Pac-12 defections in the coming years.

It sounds like the half share would vest into a full share over the duration of the deal (5 years).

[BAShocker]

So they are trying to establish a soccer presence?

I understand they are wanting to change the conference name to the PacRim 12. Weird, I know.

[SubGod22]

I'm not trying to have a doom boner, but I think Shocker fans (of which I am) really need to come to grips to what has happened to this conference, and how it looks reasonable that it will further degrade. Still better than the MVC? Ehh... yes, but living on the same street again. The shiny new AAC house kinda got foreclosed on.

The PAC right now is worth about 3x that of the AAC in payout.

The AAC is worth about 7x that of the MVC. Are you sure it's on the same street?

If the PAC takes a few more hits, which I think they will, their value will go down more. Will it go down enough to not be worth leaving? I don't know. Apple could possibly maintain their most recent offer simply because they want to be a player. The money would be better obviously but the exposure would take a big hit.

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

Big ten about to raid PAC:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38123037/big-ten-explores-possible-expansion-amid-pac-12-instability

[Aargh]

Big ten about to raid PAC:

https://www.espn.com/college-footbal...12-instability

Looks like the PAC is going to lose UCLA, USC, Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, and Washington.

There's not much they can add to what's left that's going to have much value. What's left might not have anything more from a TV deal than the AAC.

[Shock Top]

If that happens, should the AAC go after Cal and Stanford?

Would pair well with Rice and Tulane in terms of academics.

[pogo]

If that happens, should the AAC go after Cal and Stanford?

Would pair well with Rice and Tulane in terms of academics.

I think the acc stands pat and will try to work on a revised share program for its members. I think FSU and CLemson leave anyway unless the revenue shares are more beneficial to the football heavy weights.. Cal and Stanford as well as Rice and Tulane just don't move the needle much if at all for any additional revenue from it's football programs. I think the pac is pretty much on life support with numerous defections happening soon, The acc will try to shore up it's own conference in hopes of keeping 2 or 3 from bolting. An interesting article I read talked about UCLA and USC being opposed to the big adding Washington and or Oregon and perhaps a prior agreement by the big to not pursue the other two schools will probably end up like the agreement ATM had with the sec to never have Texas as a member.