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As I see it, one of four things will happen to Wichita State as the dominos fall.
1. The Big 12 breaks up and the AAC takes some of fleeing programs
2. The Big 12 is absorbed wholly by the PAC12*
3. The Big 12 poaches MWC and AAC members, and Wichita State stays
4. The Big 12 poaches MWC and AAC members, and Wichita State leaves
The first is the best option for us, and seems to be the one that most are predicted. Adding programs like Baylor and Kansas State will only better the conference. In football, it won't change the equation for the AAC to make them a power conference, but in basketball it may fully push it ahead of the SEC and Pac-12 on a consistent basis. I've even seen a prediction that Kansas would be spurned by the B1G and head to the AAC, though in that case I think the Big 12 stays put and tries to rebuild rather than imploding; I don't think it is very feasible to have Kansas leave the conference except to head to the B1G or Pac-12. At a guess, KU and Iowa State would go to the B1G, WVU to the ACC, and the rest would look to join the AAC.
The second really doesn't effect us whatsoever. It may make the AAC less stable, but for the next decade or so it would likely mean that the current conference would exist as-is. It may change the calculus for the football schools though; a P4 would have a much higher incentive to push for an 8-team playoff where the winners and runners-up of the mega conferences would take the playoff spots. That would make it hard for a UCF type team to get a playoff spot unless it expands to 12 or 16 teams. Long term, this might kill NCAA D1 football beyond the power conference level.
The third option is the worst for us by far. Imagine the Big 12 loses OU, Texas, KU, and WVU for instance. They rebuild by adding Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis, SMU, Boise State, and BYU. Wichita State is left in a conference not two dissimilar from the MVC, with a rivalry against Tulsa as the main selling point. For example, last year Wichita State would be the best remaining AAC basketball program at KenPom #68, with the next best being Tulsa at #121. The AAC would need to poach CUSA and the A-10 just to have enough members to really function as a conference. Most likely this would mean adding teams like St. Bonaventure and VCU or North Texas and LA Tech.
The fourth really depends on where we land up. From a basketball perspective, jumping ship to the Big East makes a decent amount of sense. We rebuild our northern rivalry, and establish ourselves in a basketball-focused conference is one of the best in the country. But there are major challenges to joining the Big East, because we do not match their current institutional makeup of private Catholic schools. The other options include jumping back to the MVC (horrible), joining the MWC (sidegrade with bad geography), or joining a new conference formed out of the ashes of the Big 12, A10, MWC, and AAC. This could be the most tumultuous for us; ultimately we could end up better off than now or worse than we were before leaving the MVC and anywhere in-between.
1. The Big 12 breaks up and the AAC takes some of fleeing programs
2. The Big 12 is absorbed wholly by the PAC12*
3. The Big 12 poaches MWC and AAC members, and Wichita State stays
4. The Big 12 poaches MWC and AAC members, and Wichita State leaves
The first is the best option for us, and seems to be the one that most are predicted. Adding programs like Baylor and Kansas State will only better the conference. In football, it won't change the equation for the AAC to make them a power conference, but in basketball it may fully push it ahead of the SEC and Pac-12 on a consistent basis. I've even seen a prediction that Kansas would be spurned by the B1G and head to the AAC, though in that case I think the Big 12 stays put and tries to rebuild rather than imploding; I don't think it is very feasible to have Kansas leave the conference except to head to the B1G or Pac-12. At a guess, KU and Iowa State would go to the B1G, WVU to the ACC, and the rest would look to join the AAC.
The second really doesn't effect us whatsoever. It may make the AAC less stable, but for the next decade or so it would likely mean that the current conference would exist as-is. It may change the calculus for the football schools though; a P4 would have a much higher incentive to push for an 8-team playoff where the winners and runners-up of the mega conferences would take the playoff spots. That would make it hard for a UCF type team to get a playoff spot unless it expands to 12 or 16 teams. Long term, this might kill NCAA D1 football beyond the power conference level.
The third option is the worst for us by far. Imagine the Big 12 loses OU, Texas, KU, and WVU for instance. They rebuild by adding Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis, SMU, Boise State, and BYU. Wichita State is left in a conference not two dissimilar from the MVC, with a rivalry against Tulsa as the main selling point. For example, last year Wichita State would be the best remaining AAC basketball program at KenPom #68, with the next best being Tulsa at #121. The AAC would need to poach CUSA and the A-10 just to have enough members to really function as a conference. Most likely this would mean adding teams like St. Bonaventure and VCU or North Texas and LA Tech.
The fourth really depends on where we land up. From a basketball perspective, jumping ship to the Big East makes a decent amount of sense. We rebuild our northern rivalry, and establish ourselves in a basketball-focused conference is one of the best in the country. But there are major challenges to joining the Big East, because we do not match their current institutional makeup of private Catholic schools. The other options include jumping back to the MVC (horrible), joining the MWC (sidegrade with bad geography), or joining a new conference formed out of the ashes of the Big 12, A10, MWC, and AAC. This could be the most tumultuous for us; ultimately we could end up better off than now or worse than we were before leaving the MVC and anywhere in-between.
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