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Originally posted by C0|dB|00ded
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Yes, over the weekend. To mitigate any potential gap risk on Monday. There was a mixture of technical and fundamental reasons behind my call. And as evidenced by the need for the market to retest that exact area TWICE over the ensuing 100 days (with two rather jarring 10% corrections) before continuing its climb, establishes the importance of that 3225'ish level.
Again, my call was for the weekend only, this is why I made mention of tax-deferred or qualified retirement accounts as they incur no tax penalty for selling and rebuying portfolios. Had someone asked me what to do in a taxable account, I would have given them hedging ideas on Friday that could be taken off on Monday. Perhaps shorting a couple E-mini futures contracts (each contract has a notational value of 50x the current SPX price - 3250*50=$162,500), or buying a couple SPX puts, net selling/buying some broken wing butterflies (for individual stocks with sufficient open interest), etc. etc. etc.
That's correct. You're conflating my two statements. The first indicated pulling out for TWO DAYS and seeing what Monday offered. It was a very important day at the time. The second comment was a general one and pertained to the OVERALL outlook for the next few months. It was a supporting statement of the first, but not a recommendation to leave the market for the foreseeable future. Regardless, "my" forecast was spot on as the market merely traded in a 350 pt. range over those next 100 days. It was the summer, we were at all-time highs, the pandemic had confirmed it was going to continue for much longer, and we had just nearly completely retraced a 35% market correction, which ended up being the shortest bear market in history (33 days). The risk reward for future gains in the near-term was not good.
What seemed like a mild recommendation at the time (to me), was perhaps far more complicated to the average investor and required much unpacking. I would say it is thoroughly unpacked now. Feel free to reach out for clarification sooner in the future!
P.S. As you know, I do enjoy the oft spirited debate. And if you thought it was difficult scoring points during Covid, fasten your seatbelt for finance my friend. You are unknowingly moving deep into my wheelhouse. We're going from Freshmen semester Gen. Ed., to post-grad dissertation territory very quickly.
Oooooh, I see.
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