Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[Awesome Sauce Malone]

No. It is saying statistically: Social distancing is necessary and sufficient to substantially slow growth rates. Lockdowns, however, are unnecessary and provide no benefit over social distancing.

I guess I understood wrong. Thanks for clarifying.

[jdmee]

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6038762/

I was curious so I looked up flu testing in the US. According to the link above we did about 900,000 tests in the US in 2016. That is the entire year. The 2017 pandemic plan though this was sufficient. We are currently doing that many in a week now. That is an incredible jump in such a short amount of time.

Maybe there was something to the fact the previous system was inadequate for the current pandemic.

[1972Shocker]

The Way the U.S. Is Counting Wuhan Coronavirus Deaths Seems Problematic

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiep...matic-n2566543

"The intent is right now if someone dies with COVID-19, we're counting that as a COVID-19 death," Birx said. "There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition and let's say the virus caused you to go to the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem. Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death."

There is a difference between dying from something and dying with something.

According to Mark Levin he found a March 24th directive given to doctors that emphatically provides that doctors are to enter the COVID-19 code when recording the cause of death even if it may not be the main cause of death or is the suspected cause of death. It is the default code to be used.

How much this has inflated numbers in the U.S, if much at all, is impossible to know. I suppose it is an error on the side of caution approach but life changing decisions are being made based on this date.

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

The Way the U.S. Is Counting Wuhan Coronavirus Deaths Seems Problematic

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiep...matic-n2566543

"The intent is right now if someone dies with COVID-19, we're counting that as a COVID-19 death," Birx said. "There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition and let's say the virus caused you to go to the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem. Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death."

There is a difference between dying from something and dying with something.

According to Mark Levin he found a March 24th directive given to doctors that emphatically provides that doctors are to enter the COVID-19 code when recording the cause of death even if it may not be the main cause of death or is the suspected cause of death. It is the default code to be used.

How much this has inflated numbers in the U.S, if much at all, is impossible to know. I suppose it is an error on the side of caution approach but life changing decisions are being made based on this date.

Are we inflating? Are other countries downplaying theirs ?

I think there are obvious reasons to want to code these deaths as something besides COVID-19.

[wsushox1]

The Way the U.S. Is Counting Wuhan Coronavirus Deaths Seems Problematic

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiep...matic-n2566543

"The intent is right now if someone dies with COVID-19, we're counting that as a COVID-19 death," Birx said. "There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition and let's say the virus caused you to go to the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem. Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death."

There is a difference between dying from something and dying with something.

According to Mark Levin he found a March 24th directive given to doctors that emphatically provides that doctors are to enter the COVID-19 code when recording the cause of death even if it may not be the main cause of death or is the suspected cause of death. It is the default code to be used.

How much this has inflated numbers in the U.S, if much at all, is impossible to know. I suppose it is an error on the side of caution approach but life changing decisions are being made based on this date.

was only a matter of time lol. This take is pretty reprehensible.

We are likely undercounting deaths because only those with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnoses are coded as that. Please se the article in the previous page about the hundreds of unexpected cardiac arrests happening in homes in NYC and get back to me.

If someone dies of kidney failure because their kidneys failed while fighting the virus that’s a death attributable to COVID that otherwise would not have happened at that point in time.

im not rooting for a higher death count, but history shows we almost always under account the true effects of a catastrophe - whether that’s number of unemployed in an economic recession or the number of people in a humanitarian crisis.

[RoyalShock]

Are we inflating? Are other countries downplaying theirs ?

I think there are obvious reasons to want to code these deaths as something besides COVID-19.

There will be asterisks galore on cause-of-death statistics in 2020.

I don't know how true this is, but I have seen references to hospitals having a financial incentive from the federal gov't to label cases of people without insurance as Covid-19.

[1972Shocker]

was only a matter of time lol. This take is pretty reprehensible.

We are likely undercounting deaths because only those with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnoses are coded as that. Please se the article in the previous page about the hundreds of unexpected cardiac arrests happening in homes in NYC and get back to me.

If someone dies of kidney failure because their kidneys failed while fighting the virus that’s a death attributable to COVID that otherwise would not have happened at that point in time.

im not rooting for a higher death count, but history shows we almost always under account the true effects of a catastrophe - whether that’s number of unemployed in an economic recession or the number of people in a humanitarian crisis.

That would not surprise me that their are deaths they are not counting.

Clearly their are many, many more deaths to come either directly attributable to this pandemic or indirectly related to it or relating to the response to it. Of course, who knows how high the death count would be if the response was adjusted one way or the other..

I would think miscounting deaths is a problem whether they are over-counting or under-counting.

[ShockingButTrue]

But if we don't have actual numbers of infected how can a mortality rate/model be trusted? Serious replies only...

total-deaths-60-k.jpg

Here is a projection from the university of Washington's Metrics board.

[Kung Wu]

Isn't it the ONLY sane thing to do in a crisis?

Morgues and crematories in New York metro area and New Orleans are literally overflowing with dead bodies. My gosh, they are storing bodies in refrigerator trucks in New Orleans. These aren't the only two locations in the US having this problem.

So far, in the first 3 months of the virus being in the US, we have lost about 21% of the total number of Americans killed in action in Viet Nam. And that war spanned many, many years.

I just don't think we have the luxury of full blown autopsies in the vast majority of these situations.

[wsushox1]

But if we don't have actual numbers of infected how can a mortality rate/model be trusted? Serious replies only...

total-deaths-60-k.jpg

Here is a projection from the university of Washington's Metrics board.

Because if you are consistent in inputting confirmed cases and deaths of people who were confirmed to have the virus then you can have, at least on its face, a reasonably consistent death rate and model from there.

All models are built on assumptions and have a range of error (some larger than others). Short range weather models, on the whole, have a relatively small range of error and poor verification. A viral spread model does not rely on laws of thermodynamics, fluid dynamics, and easy hydrostatic assumptions like Numerical Weather Prediction does - so its range of error is going to be considerably larger.

If you're interested in learning more about the UW model, their documentation is being updated and enhanced each day here: https://ihmeuw-msca.github.io/CurveFit/

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

746 new cases with 70 deaths yesterday in Louisiana.

[RoyalShock]

China's coronavirus misconduct makes it liable for $4 trillion in damages to G7 nations, report says

https://disrn.com/news/chinas-coronavirus-failures-make-it-liable-for-4-trillion-in-damages-to-g7-nations-report-says

[WuDrWu]

$4 Trillion? That'll leave a mark.

[Kung Wu]

$4 Trillion? That'll leave a mark.

Any effort to initiate that kind of settlement would almost certainly lead to WWIII.

[1972Shocker]

$4 Trillion? That'll leave a mark.

What's your over/under on the amount that will actually be paid by China?