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  • Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post

    Well just know that 1 person does not infect 9, by any stretch of the imagination. It's a lot closer to 1 person infects 2 to 3.28. And that's without social distancing, testing, vaccines, etc.
    My number doesn't really matter because I influence no one. The numbers you mention have changed too but I'll take your word for the numbers. As for the CDC and their numbers that say we could have as many as 250,000 deaths (they said that last week) those numbers may be as deceiving as any because they were taken from Italy and a worse case scenario. Even China's numbers have been deceiving because radio free Asia has reported that cremations have been happening each night and they have said that China's reported numbers are much lower than what really happened.

    Meantime, I'm going to continue to socially distance, and take precautions like washing hands, etc.

    Comment


    • Boris Johnson admitted into intensive care.

      https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52192604

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Shockm View Post
        Meantime, I'm going to continue to socially distance, and take precautions like washing hands, etc.
        Hopefully, we're all practicing that; if not...

        "You Just Want to Slap The #### Outta Some People"

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post

          Yeah, it's just odd that they are the only state where I have seen it this wonky.
          We are also seeing a much higher per capita rate. All the testing centers are backlogged. Convention Center turned into hospital. Morgues over capacity. Governor predicting these type of numbers to continue. Most alarming is the rate at which people are passing. 68 on Saturday which represents the highest daily total yet.

          Hoping to see this plateau type curve continue, but even with stay at home recommendations, many families have no choice but to go to schools or other places to get meals each day for their families. I fear that will extend any plateau we see extending the time it takes to see things get back to normal.

          Comment


          • Checking back in...

            So, what model "projection" is being hyped now?

            I came across the latest CDC model and thought I'd post it here. Reliable? No?

            IMG_0319.jpg

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Downtown Shocker Brown View Post

              We are also seeing a much higher per capita rate. All the testing centers are backlogged. Convention Center turned into hospital. Morgues over capacity. Governor predicting these type of numbers to continue. Most alarming is the rate at which people are passing. 68 on Saturday which represents the highest daily total yet.

              Hoping to see this plateau type curve continue, but even with stay at home recommendations, many families have no choice but to go to schools or other places to get meals each day for their families. I fear that will extend any plateau we see extending the time it takes to see things get back to normal.
              Is the testing still backlogged, or backlogged again? I was under the impression that the work in progress was significantly down.
              Livin the dream

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              • Originally posted by wufan View Post

                Is the testing still backlogged, or backlogged again? I was under the impression that the work in progress was significantly down.
                Still backlogged according to the Gov. they hope to be caught up by the end of the week, but said the same last week. Issue is the continued peak of testing going on.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by ShockingButTrue View Post
                  Checking back in...

                  So, what model "projection" is being hyped now?

                  I came across the latest CDC model and thought I'd post it here. Reliable? No?

                  IMG_0319.jpg
                  No model has changed and that cartoon is just a recap of what was posted here weeks and weeks ago.

                  I'm not sure what you are asking?

                  Or are you trying to make a statement?
                  Auf geht's Shockers, Shieß on tooor!
                  Sheiß on tOOOOr ...
                  Sheiß on toooOOOOoooor!

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post

                    No model has changed and that cartoon is just a recap of what was posted here weeks and weeks ago.

                    ?
                    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...-s-deaths.html

                    Fewer deaths are now predicted and fewer ventilators will be necessary. I saw last week that The Washington University models/predictions (wrote about in this story) on how the caronavirus will happen have been questioned during the past week by other experts that I’ve heard. What has been reported is that the Washington Model is was the CDC has used for their predictions. At one time (I don’t remember exactly when ), I think at the first of last week, the WU Model predicted between 100k-250k deaths which was criticized by some experts. Trump at that time said “we would be seeing a lot of death”. Yesterday evening, at the govt. briefing, they were more optimistic, and walking back last weeks dire predictions.
                    Last edited by Shockm; April 6th, 2020, 11:19 PM.

                    Comment


                    • Yesterday evening, at the govt. briefing, they were more optimistic, and walking back last weeks dire predictions.
                      Yeah, no reasonable number nerd has given credibility to the 200k deaths the White House put out.
                      Auf geht's Shockers, Shieß on tooor!
                      Sheiß on tOOOOr ...
                      Sheiß on toooOOOOoooor!

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post

                        Yeah, no reasonable number nerd has given credibility to the 200k deaths the White House put out.
                        I honestly think the most extreme, worst-case scenario, no precaution action numbers were released to get Americans to take it seriously. If more reasonable (and flu comparable) numbers were put out, I bet a lot of people would ease their guard against this. Again, I'm not saying it isn't serious, it absolutely is, but for a lot of Americans, you have to really make things look dire to get them to take things seriously. I'm sure if we weren't doing what we're doing, there would be higher death totals. How high? Who knows? But in order for the American public to take it seriously, you have to put out scary numbers and scenarios. Otherwise, they just ignore it.

                        So in that sense, I guess I'm ok with the scare tactics. I'm not saying 200,000 deaths weren't unreasonable if NOTHING was done to slow it or mitigate it. But those numbers scare the **** out of people so, it actually helps the cause.

                        At the rate we're going, I think the virus would have to peak in June for it to reach 200,000 deaths. As it stand nows, we could be peaking within the next week or two.
                        Deuces Valley.
                        ... No really, deuces.
                        ________________
                        "Enjoy the ride."

                        - a smart man

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post

                          Yeah, no reasonable number nerd has given credibility to the 200k deaths the White House put out.
                          A reporter also said tonight that 86k number that Washington University that was stated in the article is too high for the first wave. I think we are at around 10k as of today.

                          Comment


                          • The 200k number was pretty easy to come up with. 20 million infected with a 1% mortality rate.

                            I don’t think it was scare tactics to make that prediction at the time, rather the complicated models were being input new data all the time. Large assumptions were being made.

                            Still lots to be learned from this pandemic. I’m hopeful that new strategies will emerge on how to fight the next one.
                            Livin the dream

                            Comment


                            • The first wave is not over yet and an immediate release back into public life will spike numbers up considerably. We will likely see clusters and hot spots, though not at the severity we are now, throughout the summer before the fall begins.
                              The mountains are calling, and I must go.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by wufan View Post
                                The 200k number was pretty easy to come up with. 20 million infected with a 1% mortality rate.

                                I don’t think it was scare tactics to make that prediction at the time, rather the complicated models were being input new data all the time. Large assumptions were being made.

                                Still lots to be learned from this pandemic. I’m hopeful that new strategies will emerge on how to fight the next one.
                                I think one of the more interesting things to learn is to be able to more effectively model social distancing and how it effects the spread. Humans aren't particles in Brownian Motion that then become particles at 0K so it's tough to effectively model social distancing. The Washington Post Article did the best job of visually describing the scenario in the previous sentence and will likely win numerous awards.
                                The mountains are calling, and I must go.

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