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  • Originally posted by wsushox1 View Post
    For those saying Sweden would be an interesting country to watch........their case fatality rate is over 8% and over 1/3rd of all senior homes have confirmed cases. Death rate per million people triple that of Norway. Government now beginning to shut things down.
    Sweden does present a interesting case study. It will be interesting to see how they trend with the rest of Europe with their “be responsible” instead of implementing full “stay at home” plan.

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    • The trouble with a be responsible plan is that you have to rely on people being responsible. I like the "don't trust the other guy to do what's right" plan

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      • Originally posted by pogo View Post
        The trouble with a be responsible plan is that you have to rely on people being responsible. I like the "don't trust the other guy to do what's right" plan
        Do you travel in cars or planes? Ever go to a busy gun range?

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        • So what do we do now? Now that the curve is beginning to flatten in NYC, and likely will across the remainder of the country over the next three weeks....what the hell do we do next?

          The virus isn't going away. It will come back. The President said yesterday that we DON'T need widespread testing or contact tracing. The federal government is pulling funds for coronavirus testing centers.

          I have not heard a single coherent plan from the federal government besides "Open the economy" back up. That's just not good enough.

          We have one shot to get the "reopening" right, otherwise you're looking at an economic recovery that will go from 18 months to 60+ months. On the monetary side of things, the federal reserve has already used up all of the legal authority they have within their mandate to backstop the economy and protect asset prices (for better or worse). On the fiscal side of things, the stimulus that has passed is woefully too small.

          If we can't get this right, you are looking at UBI, medicare for all, among many other extreme policies within the next 12-18 months. That's the reality.
          Last edited by wsushox1; April 10, 2020, 03:54 PM.
          The mountains are calling, and I must go.

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          • Australian Scientists Find Ivermectin Kills COVID-19

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            • How long would it take to generate 400 million + antibody tests?
              Deuces Valley.
              ... No really, deuces.
              ________________
              "Enjoy the ride."

              - a smart man

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              • This aged well

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                • 980 new cases, 53 deaths in Louisiana yesterday.

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                  • Originally posted by MelvinLoudermilk View Post
                    This aged well

                    Please tell me....

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                    • Originally posted by SHOCKvalue View Post

                      Do you travel in cars or planes? Ever go to a busy gun range?
                      I suppose that is your idea of ascertaining how much I trust other people while driving, flying or visiting a busy gun range right? Well if indulging in any of these activities were as deadly on a daily basis as the virus is now, then no I wouldn't. My turn. Would you take a gun from a complete stranger who told you it was empty, put it to your head and pull the trigger?

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                      • Originally posted by pogo View Post

                        I suppose that is your idea of ascertaining how much I trust other people while driving, flying or visiting a busy gun range right? Well if indulging in any of these activities were as deadly on a daily basis as the virus is now, then no I wouldn't. My turn. Would you take a gun from a complete stranger who told you it was empty, put it to your head and pull the trigger?
                        Someone would have to force me to pull the trigger. Is there someone forcing you to go out and about if the economy and society were opened back up?

                        Mitigate the risk. We do it every day with our choices. You'll never die in a car wreck if you never get in a car. When the virus is hanging around and knocking off people of your demographic you'll likely not ever come down with it if you simply stay home. Guess you could get it from grocery deliveries, but if those are delivered far enough out that they sit in your garage (or wherever) while the virus dies off you should be good.

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                        • Originally posted by pogo View Post

                          I suppose that is your idea of ascertaining how much I trust other people while driving, flying or visiting a busy gun range right? Well if indulging in any of these activities were as deadly on a daily basis as the virus is now, then no I wouldn't. My turn. Would you take a gun from a complete stranger who told you it was empty, put it to your head and pull the trigger?
                          I don’t believe the possibility of attaining the virus is deadlier than entering your vehicle.
                          Deuces Valley.
                          ... No really, deuces.
                          ________________
                          "Enjoy the ride."

                          - a smart man

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by pogo View Post

                            I suppose that is your idea of ascertaining how much I trust other people while driving, flying or visiting a busy gun range right? Well if indulging in any of these activities were as deadly on a daily basis as the virus is now, then no I wouldn't. My turn. Would you take a gun from a complete stranger who told you it was empty, put it to your head and pull the trigger?
                            The more I think about it, the more I believe my honest answer to your question is yes. Easily so. It is simple math. 50 people have died in Kansas from the virus; we have a population of 2.9 million. If someone hands me a revolver with a 58,000 round capacity and tells me one of those chambers has round in it and I can either give it a try at 1:58000 odds and go on with my life, or take the "safe" bet and see my career and life savings disappear guess which one I'm choosing.

                            That rate and odds could increase by ten times and I still wouldn't bat an eye with the same response. It could increase by another ten fold and I still think my answer is the same - that's still 1:580. At 1000 times more lethality than current.

                            The proportional math of this entire thing is completely ignored in the media - both sides. Because calming people with math doesn't sell ads or generate page counts. Rational thought doesn't circulate in the hyperbolic, emotional, and irrational types who populate the media class either. It's likewise ignored by the government, because a calmed and rational public is not so easily lead around like cattle. In no country is this virus statistically relevant. The numbers are TINY when observed on a per capita basis. Absolutely tiny.

                            In Sedgwick County, we have had 172 cases. Out of over 500K people. Only 30 of those cases required hospitalization. Just two people in SG CO have died from this. TWO. If you told someone a year ago those numbers, and then told them we were in the midst of economic seppeku because of it they would assume you were describing some sort of a dark humor SNL skit.
                            Last edited by SHOCKvalue; April 10, 2020, 06:18 PM.

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                            • Originally posted by pogo View Post

                              Would you take a gun from a complete stranger who told you it was empty, put it to your head and pull the trigger?
                              Unfortunately there are actually people who would.

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                              • The likelihood of dying from any number of everyday choices and common diseases:

                                https://blog.timesunion.com/healthca...of-dying/2515/

                                The likelihood of dying from the common flu is 1:9410.

                                It has been said that the coronavirus is something like ten times more lethal than the common flu. That's 1:941. Here are the things more likely to kill you than the coronavirus, per the article above:

                                Heart disease 631,636 1 in 6
                                Cancer 562,875 1 in 7
                                Smoking-related deaths 433,000 1 in 9
                                Stroke 135,952 1 in 28
                                Obesity-related 112,000 1 in 35
                                Heavy drinking 79,000 1 in 49
                                Breast cancer 40,598 1 in 95
                                Prostate cancer 29,093 1 in 133
                                Fall 22,631 1 in 171
                                Assault 18,361 1 in 211
                                Brain tumor 13,000 1 in 298
                                Car accident 12,772 1 in 303
                                Skin cancer 8,461 1 in 457
                                Pedestrian accident 5,958 1 in 649
                                Motorcycle accident 5,024 1 in 770

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