Originally posted by JVShocker
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On the one hand: with the percentage of infected people that require critical care and supplemental oxygen it is unlikely that it was widespread in the US before the mid-february time frame.
On the other hand: the amount of nursing homes that early on (and still are) centers of the outbreak make me think the virus was bubbling for 4-6 weeks before those surfaced. The odds of the first presentations of the virus, sans pre-existing conditions, in nursing homes have to be low. That is not to say that nursing homes aren't ripe for rapid spread -- but would they be the first place the virus would show if it wasn't circulating for quite a while?
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