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  • Originally posted by revenge_of_shocka_khan View Post

    100,000. Death rate seems to be increasing, I'd say we might hit 2%. Last I looked, Italy was up around 7%.

    Dr. Fauci is predicting 1M infectuons.

    Death rate will depend on how our hospitals hold up. The death rate is a lagging indicator, I would suspect it has something to do with the impact of morbidity and availability of good healthcare, but would probably be more dependent on good healthcare (ERs not getting overcrowded, availability of health equipment - especially ventillators).

    If ERs get overwhelmed, we may see areas where the death rate is significantly over 2%. Also note in rural areas, the hospitals will get taxed much quicker due to small size.

    I would think that people living in cities might have a chance to fare better, primarily because it will be easier for them to get resources. Rural areas willing have a tougher time getting those resources, especially if we have to employ a strategy of putting those resources where they will save the most lives. However, that is only my opinion, and I would bet that others may have effective arguments against my logic.
    If he's only predicting a million infections, he's saying the death rate will be around 10%? That seems extremely high. Is he basing that high of a death rate on a strained health system? If he's expecting 100,000 deaths, I would have to think there will be way more than a million infections.
    Deuces Valley.
    ... No really, deuces.
    ________________
    "Enjoy the ride."

    - a smart man

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    • Originally posted by ShockerFever View Post
      Fauci expecting 100,000 - 200,000 US deaths?
      I suspect that will end up being pretty close to the final tally when you include both the spring and the fall and next spring cycle of this disease.

      Unless things change significantly I don't see how football happens in the fall. But that might be my pessimism again.
      The mountains are calling, and I must go.

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      • Originally posted by ShockerFever View Post

        If he's only predicting a million infections, he's saying the death rate will be around 10%? That seems extremely high. Is he basing that high of a death rate on a strained health system? If he's expecting 100,000 deaths, I would have to think there will be way more than a million infections.
        There's a million people with the disease in the US right now. I'm confident in saying that. I went back and listened to the tape and he said "millions of infenctions".
        The mountains are calling, and I must go.

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        • Originally posted by wsushox1 View Post

          There's a million people with the disease in the US right now. I'm confident in saying that. I went back and listened to the tape and he said "millions of infenctions".
          Gotcha. That makes more sense. Thanks.
          Deuces Valley.
          ... No really, deuces.
          ________________
          "Enjoy the ride."

          - a smart man

          Comment


          • Originally posted by SB Shock View Post

            NYC growth factor was 1.13, NY State was 1.04 for yesterday data.

            You can go to any state and look at historical data here:

            https://covidtracking.com/data/
            Yeah, I reference that site quite a bit, but it doesn't have the percentages conveniently broken down. I should have went there to double check the other chart I look at, though.
            Kung Wu say, man who go through airport turnstile sideways is going to Bangkok

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            • Originally posted by wsushox1 View Post

              There's a million people with the disease in the US right now. I'm confident in saying that. I went back and listened to the tape and he said "millions of infenctions".
              I'd like to see the math that makes you confident in that. And I'm not being argumentative, I just want to see the math that got you there.
              Kung Wu say, man who go through airport turnstile sideways is going to Bangkok

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              • Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post

                I'd like to see the math that makes you confident in that. And I'm not being argumentative, I just want to see the math that got you there.
                Sure, it's going to have a lot of assumptions - but every forecasting model from weather (assuming pressure is hydrostatic and simplifying PDE's), to sports (assuming a player doesn't get hurt), to the Black-Scholes model have assumptions baked in.

                Let's say that, of the 125,000 people that have currently tested positive that 80% of those have mild-to-severe symptoms. That's roughly 100,000 people with mild to severe symptoms and 25,000 with light or asymptomatic. Let's next assume that 50% of people have mild to severe symptoms and 50% have light to no symptoms. Let's also assume, for the sake of the model that everyone with mild to severe symptoms has been tested. So that 100,000 number is every single person in the US with COVID that has mild-severe symptoms. So, in this highly simplified and assumptious model that would mean there would really be 200,000 people with COVID-19 in the US.

                Next, lets assume a 5 day lag time in symptoms showing and a 4 day lag time in getting results (meaning the 200,000 number is from 9 days ago) and we assume a 15% growth factor. That yields roughly 700,000 cases. Which I still think is conservative - especially with the symptoms and testing delay.

                It's a rough, back of the envelope calculation that is far from scientific. But that's how I'm getting up to my number
                The mountains are calling, and I must go.

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                • Originally posted by wsushox1 View Post

                  Sure, it's going to have a lot of assumptions - but every forecasting model from weather (assuming pressure is hydrostatic and simplifying PDE's), to sports (assuming a player doesn't get hurt), to the Black-Scholes model have assumptions baked in.

                  Let's say that, of the 125,000 people that have currently tested positive that 80% of those have mild-to-severe symptoms. That's roughly 100,000 people with mild to severe symptoms and 25,000 with light or asymptomatic. Let's next assume that 50% of people have mild to severe symptoms and 50% have light to no symptoms. Let's also assume, for the sake of the model that everyone with mild to severe symptoms has been tested. So that 100,000 number is every single person in the US with COVID that has mild-severe symptoms. So, in this highly simplified and assumptious model that would mean there would really be 200,000 people with COVID-19 in the US.

                  Next, lets assume a 5 day lag time in symptoms showing and a 4 day lag time in getting results (meaning the 200,000 number is from 9 days ago) and we assume a 15% growth factor. That yields roughly 700,000 cases. Which I still think is conservative - especially with the symptoms and testing delay.

                  It's a rough, back of the envelope calculation that is far from scientific. But that's how I'm getting up to my number
                  Well you got 70% the way to a million. :)

                  I'll have to digest what you did a bit.
                  Kung Wu say, man who go through airport turnstile sideways is going to Bangkok

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                  • France Officially Sanctions Chloroquine After 78 Of 80 Patients Recover From COVID-19 Within Five Days

                    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_c...ature=emb_logo

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                    • Originally posted by MelvinLoudermilk View Post
                      France Officially Sanctions Chloroquine After 78 Of 80 Patients Recover From COVID-19 Within Five Days

                      https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_c...ature=emb_logo
                      That is fantastic news! Five days seems like a remarkably quick recovery time compared to some of the reports out there. Still not really statistically significant vs population, but still!
                      Livin the dream

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                      • Originally posted by ShockerFever View Post
                        Fauci expecting 100,000 - 200,000 US deaths?
                        Here is a media report on Dr. Fauci's comments and expectations.

                        Dr. Fauci Predicts Up To 200,000 Deaths From Coronavirus
                        https://www.redstate.com/jeffc/2020/...om-coronavirus

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                        • Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post

                          Well you got 70% the way to a million. :)

                          I'll have to digest what you did a bit.
                          My fiance says getting her 70% of the way is enough
                          The mountains are calling, and I must go.

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                          • Originally posted by 1972Shocker View Post

                            Here is a media report on Dr. Fauci's comments and expectations.

                            Dr. Fauci Predicts Up To 200,000 Deaths From Coronavirus
                            https://www.redstate.com/jeffc/2020/...om-coronavirus
                            “Based on what the experts are saying, it seems clear that the coronavirus isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. While many on the right are still downplaying the spread of the disease and the progressive left is still trying to convince us that the virus will bring about the apocalypse, it’s important to remember that the truth is likely somewhere in the middle.”
                            "You Just Want to Slap The #### Outta Some People"

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                            • China's efforts to blame coronavirus on a US army delegation to Wuhan infuriate No. 10 as Boris Johnson's advisers say Beijing's statistics on its cases could be downplayed by a factor of 40
                              • Ministers demand review of Britain's relationship with Communist super-state
                              • It comes amid fury over China's misinformation blitz around Covid-19 outbreak
                              • PM urged to block deal with technology giant
                              https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ate-No-10.html

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                              • The mountains are calling, and I must go.

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