Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[jdshock]

Maybe just take people at their word? They know themselves better than you.

Aside from anything else, that's just objectively nonsense when you're talking about medical diagnoses.

[wsushox1]

Again, with the amount of people that need critical care, supplemental oxygen, and intubation it would surprise me if the first case (by a large order of magnitude) was prior to January 15 in the US.

[WuDrWu]

Aside from anything else, that's just objectively nonsense when you're talking about medical diagnoses.

Could not agree more with this. When we're mostly, if not exclusively, test those that are highest at risk AND showing symptoms, and that group is showing positive at most 20% of the time, then you most likely did NOT have COVID-19.

I saw a doctor this morning answer a viewer question that said almost the same thing as one of the posters above. Convinced he and his wife had it and had recovered. The doctor said the same damned thing …. "You probably DID have it".....no idea where they lived, who they were around, what their risks were...anything. Somebody should pull her license to practice medicine immediately.

We're SO overwhelmed with half truths and misinformation and a desire to blame literally anyone for anything before we try to fix the damned problem it's disgusting.

We're ALL guilty to some extent because it all starts with personal responsibility.

[Shockm]

I agree with Wufan though. The one thing that makes the Caronavirus so dangerous is that it is so contagious, so many more people are infected and it spreads so quickly (1 person will infect 9 people where with the flu 1-2 people are infected. If people in Wichita had the Caronavirus before mid-Feb., we wouldn't have seen the first documented case just happen in Sedgwick County just a few weeks ago in the hospital. There would have been more in the hospital with severe symptoms prior to that first case.

I had the flu last spring (so I know it wasn't the Caronavirus), and I didn't have the temperatures I"ve been reading about in the news (104 degrees), but I did have a temperature of 100-102 for 72 hours or so and I was bedridden for a week. It was the sickest I've been for years, I felt like I was going to die, and when I tried to go back to work after a week, I was constantly tired and not myself for 2-3 more weeks. It wasn't in my lungs as badly as the sickest caronavirus I've heard about, but otherwise but otherwise, the symptoms were very similar. High temperature for several days, started with a respiratory difficulties in my head and moved down to my lungs. IF I had that flu now, i'd probably swear I had the caronavirus.

There are some mysteries to any diesease. One thing that doesn't make sense to me is that an elderly couple were on a cruise ship off of Japan and weren't being allowed to leave because so many had the Caronavirus in February. He had a temperature of 104 and was diagnosed for the caronavirus. His wife who was quaranteed with him in a small room with just a balcony never had it. She was allowed to leave on a plane to a military installation, while he had to go to a hospital for a while. Why he got it and she didn't, is a mystery to me because it is so contagious. If someone can answer that for me, I'd appreciate it.

[wsushox1]

There are some mysteries to any diesease. One thing that doesn't make sense to me is that an elderly couple were on a cruise ship off of Japan and weren't being allowed to leave because so many had the Caronavirus in February. He had a temperature of 104 and was diagnosed for the caronavirus. His wife who was quaranteed with him in a small room with just a balcony never had it. She was allowed to leave on a plane to a military installation, while he had to go to a hospital for a while. Why he got it and she didn't, is a mystery to me because it is so contagious. If someone can answer that for me, I'd appreciate it.

That is a billion, perhaps trillion given the economic loss, dollar question.

Why are some people with identical health histories responding differently? Why are some asymptomatic, why do some escalate to hospitalization in less than a few days? Don't know if we will ever really know, but antibody testing should provide some clues - hopefully.

This is a good article that addresses the antibody portion: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/w...ntibodies.html

[WichitaStateGuy]

Aside from anything else, that's just objectively nonsense when you're talking about medical diagnoses.

You're not a (medical) doctor. My doctor said I likely had it. Many doctors have said a plethora of people unknowingly have the disease. When this virus is more infectious than the flu, I'll take people at their word when they say they think that they had it. That's logical.

[WichitaStateGuy]

Could not agree more with this. When we're mostly, if not exclusively, test those that are highest at risk AND showing symptoms, and that group is showing positive at most 20% of the time, then you most likely did NOT have COVID-19.

I saw a doctor this morning answer a viewer question that said almost the same thing as one of the posters above. Convinced he and his wife had it and had recovered. The doctor said the same damned thing …. "You probably DID have it".....no idea where they lived, who they were around, what their risks were...anything. Somebody should pull her license to practice medicine immediately.

We're SO overwhelmed with half truths and misinformation and a desire to blame literally anyone for anything before we try to fix the damned problem it's disgusting.

We're ALL guilty to some extent because it all starts with personal responsibility.

Respectfully, you in turn having this reaction to a medical doctor is- in a roundabout way- saying you know better than a doctor. Also, he's not the only doctor that's said this. Again- respectfully- I don't think you know better than the lawyer above, or medical doctors specializing in viruses.

[wsushox1]

You're not a (medical) doctor. My doctor said I likely had it. Many doctors have said a plethora of people unknowingly have the disease. When this virus is more infectious than the flu, I'll take people at their word when they say they think that they had it. That's logical.

I'm a natural skeptic, so that's where this is coming from, but it is not logical to take people at their self-diagnosed word.

Now, if you had COVID like symptoms in the last 3-4 weeks, I would tend to believe that you had a higher liklihood of having it. But before mid-January is probably not likely. The people doing genomic tracing of the virus would have found out by now.

The earliest genomic trace of a COVID-19 case that I've seen in america was genetically similar to virus sample in Wuhan in the early-mid part of January. Meaning it was more likely than not that there was not COVID-19 circulating in the US prior to that timeframe.

[WichitaStateGuy]

I'm a natural skeptic, so that's where this is coming from, but it is not logical to take people at their self-diagnosed word.

If A, then B
Not B
Therefore not A

If I have the virus, I will have the symptoms
I did not have the symptoms
Therefore, I did not have the virus.

This works both ways --

If I do not have the virus, I will not have the symptoms
I do have the symptons
Therefore, I do have the virus.

This is a modus tollens, and it is- in fact- a logical argument. It may not be sound, but it is valid.

[jdmee]

I agree with Wufan though. The one thing that makes the Caronavirus so dangerous is that it is so contagious, so many more people are infected and it spreads so quickly (1 person will infect 9 people where with the flu 1-2 people are infected. If people in Wichita had the Caronavirus before mid-Feb., we wouldn't have seen the first documented case just happen in Sedgwick County just a few weeks ago in the hospital. There would have been more in the hospital with severe symptoms prior to that first case.
.

Where do you get your 1 in 9 number?

Per https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#repro

How contagious is the Wuhan Coronavirus? (Ro)

The attack rate or transmissibility (how rapidly the disease spreads) of a virus is indicated by its reproductive number (Ro, pronounced R-nought or r-zero), which represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus.

WHO's estimated (on Jan. 23) Ro to be between 1.4 and 2.5. ^[13]

Other studies have estimated a Ro between 3.6 and 4.0, and between 2.24 to 3.58. ^[23].

Preliminary studies had estimated Ro to be between 1.5 and 3.5. ^[5][6][7]

An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1 will gradually disappear.

For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.

[JVShocker]

Not going to argue over semantics. I don't know if I had it. I don't care if I had it. I'm just trying to relate my experience. You can take it for what its worth. I don't care about patient zero, patient 1, 2, 20 or 100,000. I'm trying to stay as healthy as I can now. And I'm not concerned with your diagnosis of my situation or anyone else. There were 6 of us that got something so bad that we will never forget it. I don't want to relive it. I slept with an ice pack on my back and a fan blowing against it to do whatever I could to keep my body temperature down. I have NEVER had to do that. Not for a day, and certainly not for a week. My daughter's temp was 103.5 and they got it down to 102. I will never forget the coughing. Trying to catch my breath. Taking breaths of air that were slow and shallow so I wouldn't start coughing. We sleept upright on the couch so we didn't cough. I found a story of a man who recovered from it in a hospital, and after reading it, it sounds like enough of the things that I went through, that I can only picture myself and my wife going through the same thing. (the 6 of us that got this thing ALL work or live together and we tried our damn-dest to stay away from people and the public at the time. Mostly because we were just always coughing.

Here are some quotes:


More than a few times, Jimmy Cannizzaro thought his next coughing fit would be his last. (<--- CHECK)

For several terrifying days, he got worse and worse, as his wife, Jenna Esposito-Cannizzaro paced, alone, in their Park Slope apartment, under quarantine. (<--- CHECK)


“I was at a low point where I thought one more coughing fit and I was done. I wasn’t gonna make it," he told the Daily News. (<--- CHECK)

A few days later, when he had a lingering fever of 99.4 degrees

Two days after that, on Sunday, March 15, he he returned worse for wear with a 102 degree fever. (<--- CHECK)

“And then the coughing happened," he said. "You coughed so much that you couldn’t catch your breath. I was already weak. I already couldn’t even keep my eyes open, and now I’m coughing and I can’t breathe. (<---CHECK)



These (CHECKS) summarize exactly what we experienced. Was it the virus? I don't know. I DON'T CARE. . Whenever one of us coughs now we stop and stare for a moment as if to say "what are you coughing for?"

All of this was just to relate a very unusual experience we had between Jan. 25 and March 7 (when wife was still coughing a little, she knows because she was scheduled to donate blood that Saturday and she canceled because she still have fits of cough at times (she keeps good notes on her daily calendar). Again, nothing personal, I just don't CARE about your diagnosis or feelings on the matter. We kind of feel like we had it. We just want to AVOID IT at all costs. Anyone's feelings/opinions on our experience are irrelevant and uninformed. Again, not being snippy, I'm just saying, ya know. :-)

If the actual virus/disease is far worse, AVOID IT AT ALL COSTS.

My advice to everyone is JUST STAY HEALTHY.

[wufan]

If A, then B
Not B
Therefore not A

If I have the virus, I will have the symptoms
I did not have the symptoms
Therefore, I did not have the virus.

This works both ways --

If I do not have the virus, I will not have the symptoms
I do have the symptons
Therefore, I do have the virus.

This is a modus tollens, and it is- in fact- a logical argument. It may not be sound, but it is valid.

So it’s not a valid argument because the first premise, of if A then B is not valid. Not everyone that has Covid-19 gets all or any of the symptoms. Additionally, your B (symptoms) can be caused by C, D, or E.

The valid argument would be if your test came back positive (A), then you had Covid-19 (B). If you didn’t have Covid-19 (B) then you wouldn’t test positive.

[WichitaStateGuy]

So it’s not a valid argument because the first premise, of if A then B is not valid. Not everyone that has Covid-19 gets all or any of the symptoms. Additionally, your B (symptoms) can be caused by C, D, or E.

The valid argument would be if your test came back positive (A), then you had Covid-19 (B). If you didn’t have Covid-19 (B) then you wouldn’t test positive.

Premises being true is a test of soundness, not validity. The argument is still valid.

"If a deductive argument is valid, that means the reasoning process behind the inferences is correct and there are no fallacies. If the premises of such an argument are true, then it is impossible for the conclusion not to be true. Conversely, if an argument is invalid, then the reasoning process behind the inferences is not correct.

If a deductive argument is sound, that means that not only are all the inferences true, but the premises are also true."

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

How many people on US soil do you think were infected prior to Jan 15? 1 million? 10 million?

I have no idea what I had. My doctor had no idea what I had.

Was it a less impactful version of coronavirus? Possibly. Was it something else that maybe should have been tested for? Who knows.

What I do know is that whatever it was it sucked ass.

[SB Shock]

If A, then B
Not B
Therefore not A

If I have the virus, I will have the symptoms

Problem is the symptoms are very similar to the flu. It would be more believable if you had some of these in common:

a. Had a flu shot
b. Had traveled overseas
c. Had traveled to the NE USA (NY or Mass)
d. Had traveled to NW (Wash St)
e. Had a flu test come back negative
f. Worked in position where they come in contact with people who travel a lot

I have heard stories of other people who think they have had covid-19, and they usually had several of a-f

You're not a (medical) doctor. My doctor said I likely had it.

I would get a new doctor. I have seen more misdiagnoses because doctors would rather guess than do their jobs. If he really thought you had it, he should have fought to have gotten you tested. How do you know right now you are not a carrier and are just not symptomatic any longer?