Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[wsushox1]

And New York is nearly half of it. They have got to rein it in.

How do they rein it in?

[Kung Wu]

How do they rein it in?

I wish I knew.

[Kung Wu]

Man, this would be the optimal time for bridge engineers and repair crews to go crazy on large bridges.

[SB Shock]

Here is story on how they selected one beach in florida and tracked their devices as they went back home.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-florida-spring-break-location-data-spread-social-distancing-2020-3

[1979Shocker]

I dig this quote from Michael Buble:

“Your grandparents were asked to go to war, and all you’re being asked to do is to sit on the couch.”

[ShockingButTrue]

The "Preachy" Atheist is just as bad as the "Preachy" Evangelical. #BeBest

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[Awesome Sauce Malone]

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Oh dear... how ever will I sleep at night..

[Kung Wu]

I'm seeing a possible inflection point for New York! Unless my data is old -- can anybody confirm they see the same thing?

[wufan]

I'm seeing a possible inflection point for New York! Unless my data is old -- can anybody confirm they see the same thing?

Haven’t seen the analysis online and not tracking individually, but the US curve is bending. When NY state is 40% of confirmed cases and NY metro is 30%, I would have to think it is true.

[Kung Wu]

Haven’t seen the analysis online and not tracking individually, but the US curve is bending. When NY state is 40% of confirmed cases and NY metro is 30%, I would have to think it is true.

Yeah if you are seeing US bending, then New York hit an inflection point. Good news!

[SB Shock]

I'm seeing a possible inflection point for New York! Unless my data is old -- can anybody confirm they see the same thing?

NY Data.JPG

Here is the NY State data. Plotted before the stay at home order and after. You can see the effect of "Stay at Home Order"

[Kung Wu]

NY Data.JPG

Here is the NY State data. Plotted before the stay at home order and after. You can see the effect of "Stay at Home Order"

Hmm, I would have thought yesterday dropped a little, but my data may not be updated yet. Regardless, yes the stay at home seems to be helping quite a bit.

[ShockerFever]

Fauci expecting 100,000 - 200,000 US deaths?

[SB Shock]

Hmm, I would have thought yesterday dropped a little, but my data may not be updated yet. Regardless, yes the stay at home seems to be helping quite a bit.

NYC growth factor was 1.13, NY State was 1.04 for yesterday data.

You can go to any state and look at historical data here:

https://covidtracking.com/data/

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

Fauci expecting 100,000 - 200,000 US deaths?

100,000. Death rate seems to be increasing, I'd say we might hit 2%. Last I looked, Italy was up around 7%.

Dr. Fauci is predicting 1M infectuons.

Death rate will depend on how our hospitals hold up. The death rate is a lagging indicator, I would suspect it has something to do with the impact of morbidity and availability of good healthcare, but would probably be more dependent on good healthcare (ERs not getting overcrowded, availability of health equipment - especially ventillators).

If ERs get overwhelmed, we may see areas where the death rate is significantly over 2%. Also note in rural areas, the hospitals will get taxed much quicker due to small size.

I would think that people living in cities might have a chance to fare better, primarily because it will be easier for them to get resources. Rural areas willing have a tougher time getting those resources, especially if we have to employ a strategy of putting those resources where they will save the most lives. However, that is only my opinion, and I would bet that others may have effective arguments against my logic.