Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[pie n eye]

U.S. Growth Rate (7 day average): 3.2%
Kansas Growth Rate (7 day average): 9.2%
Sedgwick County Growth Rate (7 day average): 1.5%

U.S. as a whole has got a decent trend line (hopefully will get even better in the next couple weeks)

Kansas is not doing so hot. Kansas was riding along with the downward trend of the national average until they let western Kansas get out of control. The risk is that new clusters will be imported back into Wichita and other areas.

The Wichita area is under control (it would be better if it was <1%, and probably will be after next week - unless a new cluster emerges).

So, it seems like the main goal now is to get the spread rate under control to the point that contact tracing becomes feasible again. That should allow us to begin phasing back into life with confidence that we have a much better handle on the situation this time.

Which leads me to wonder how robust our surveillance program or strategy is at this point in Sedgwick. What is the number we need to stay under in order to be able to effectively trace and contain outbreaks so that we don’t need to revert back to widespread stay at home orders?

[wufan]

So, it seems like the main goal now is to get the spread rate under control to the point that contact tracing becomes feasible again. That should allow us to begin phasing back into life with confidence that we have a much better handle on the situation this time.

Which leads me to wonder how robust our surveillance program or strategy is at this point in Sedgwick. What is the number we need to stay under in order to be able to effectively trace and contain outbreaks so that we don’t need to revert back to widespread stay at home orders?

Great question.

[Kung Wu]

U.S. Growth Rate (7 day average): 3.2%
Kansas Growth Rate (7 day average): 9.2%
Sedgwick County Growth Rate (7 day average): 1.5%

U.S. as a whole has got a decent trend line (hopefully will get even better in the next couple weeks)

Kansas is not doing so hot. Kansas was riding along with the downward trend of the national average until they let western Kansas get out of control. The risk is that new clusters will be imported back into Wichita and other areas.

The Wichita area is under control (it would be better if it was <1%, and probably will be after next week - unless a new cluster emerges).

Fake news! (kidding) Kansas is doing very well.

According to the Kungculator the growth rate is entirely due to increased testing -- NOT because people are getting sick.

The past week in Kansas vs the prior weeks in Kansas:

Growth rate of testing in Kansas has increased two fold (over week prior), so
Growth rate of positive cases has increased substantially, but
Growth rate of hospitalizations is DECREASING.

Date	Increased cases	Test increase	Hospital increase
This week	1466	8989	85
Last week	599	4954	92
Week 3	526	4633	104
Week 4	472	4090	144

I will keep repeating: Other than for academic purposes, testing at this point in time is a complete waste of time and resources, unless you are sick or work with at-risk folks.

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

Fake news! (kidding) Kansas is doing very well.

According to the Kungculator the growth rate is entirely due to increased testing -- NOT because people are getting sick.

The past week in Kansas vs the prior weeks in Kansas:

Growth rate of testing in Kansas has increased two fold (over week prior), so
Growth rate of positive cases has increased substantially, but
Growth rate of hospitalizations is DECREASING.

Date	Increased cases	Test increase	Hospital increase
This week	1466	8989	85
Last week	599	4954	92
Week 3	526	4633	104
Week 4	472	4090	144

I will keep repeating: Other than for academic purposes, testing at this point in time is a complete waste of time and resources, unless you are sick or work with at-risk folks.

So this was a supply chain issue. We had the same testing bottleneck (and a bubble of cases associated with it) as companies (for example, Quest Diagnostics) started reporting their cases. This can't happen when we end the lockdown. We will need quick access to data for the purposes of analysis.

[Kung Wu]

So this was a supply chain issue. We had the same testing bottleneck (and a bubble of cases associated with it) as companies (for example, Quest Diagnostics) started reporting their cases. This can't happen when we end the lockdown. We will need quick access to data for the purposes of analysis.

All mass testing is doing is confusing local governments into continuing to wreck their economy.

Look at the numbers for this week: 9000 tests ... for 85 people that actually were hospitalized. That means 105 tests for every 1 person that needed hospitalization.

And guess what? Those 85 people that needed hospitalization would have gone to the hospital WITHOUT mass testing.

The cost of a test? I read a MarketWatch article where one guy in Kansas was billed $900 for a freaking test?!

Did we really cause Kansas taxpayers and/or their insurance pools $900 x 9000 = $8,000,000 this week alone because 85 people were hospitalized??

[wsushox1]

All mass testing is doing is confusing local governments into continuing to wreck their economy.

Look at the numbers for this week: 9000 tests ... for 85 people that actually were hospitalized. That means 105 tests for every 1 person that needed hospitalization.

And guess what? Those 85 people that needed hospitalization would have gone to the hospital WITHOUT mass testing.

The cost of a test? I read a MarketWatch article where one guy in Kansas was billed $900 for a freaking test?!

Did we really cause Kansas taxpayers and/or their insurance pools $900 x 9000 = $8,000,000 this week alone because 85 people were hospitalized??

I think...I think I agree with you?

Private sector has to have an incentive to build out testing - expensive testing will do that. LabCorp is furloughing people because there isn't enough regular lab demand even with the high amount of COVID-19 tests they are running. This is not me "blaming private sector", just the reality of their economics.

They tested an entire prison here in NC and found that 50% of population was infected and 90% were, allegedly, asymptomatic. That's crazy.

[Kung Wu]

I think...I think I agree with you?

I was a fan of testing in the early stages when slowing the spread was critical for hospitals to prepare, and for the doctors to understand who the at-risk people really were. But that day has come and went for most states in the US. There are still some lingering hot spots that should probably be out ahead of it in terms of testing, but for the most part, the country has moved well past the need for mass testing a couple weeks ago.

For academic purposes we still need antibody testing, and that's happening.

[WichitaStateGuy]

Fake news! (kidding) Kansas is doing very well.

According to the Kungculator the growth rate is entirely due to increased testing -- NOT because people are getting sick.

The past week in Kansas vs the prior weeks in Kansas:

Growth rate of testing in Kansas has increased two fold (over week prior), so
Growth rate of positive cases has increased substantially, but
Growth rate of hospitalizations is DECREASING.

Date	Increased cases	Test increase	Hospital increase
This week	1466	8989	85
Last week	599	4954	92
Week 3	526	4633	104
Week 4	472	4090	144

I will keep repeating: Other than for academic purposes, testing at this point in time is a complete waste of time and resources, unless you are sick or work with at-risk folks.

What amount of the variability of increased cases is explained by increased testing, if you don't mind me asking? (Asking for R-Squared)

[RoyalShock]

In Reno County it appears some dumbass who was supposed to be self-quarantining didn't and is responsible for spreading it to four other people, possibly more, with additional test results pending.

https://hutchpost.com/posts/5ea99670eb7f17053603bab3

[SB Shock]

Fake news! (kidding) Kansas is doing very well.

According to the Kungculator the growth rate is entirely due to increased testing -- NOT because people are getting sick.

The past week in Kansas vs the prior weeks in Kansas:

Growth rate of testing in Kansas has increased two fold (over week prior), so
Growth rate of positive cases has increased substantially, but
Growth rate of hospitalizations is DECREASING.

Date	Increased cases	Test increase	Hospital increase
This week	1466	8989	85
Last week	599	4954	92
Week 3	526	4633	104
Week 4	472	4090	144

I will keep repeating: Other than for academic purposes, testing at this point in time is a complete waste of time and resources, unless you are sick or work with at-risk folks.

Kansas as a whole is not doing well.

Kansas has not been testing at a high enough volume and fast enough and there was community spread. Now community spread has occurred in Liberal and Dodge City which threatens the meat packing industry. That in turns can mean further community spread back into the areas of the state that has gotten their community spread under control.

I know 3 people in Wichita who have been told by a doctor that they may have the symptoms of mild case of covid-19. They have asked to be given the test. They were told initially that tests are in short supply and they would see what they can do. They were contacted today and 1 of the 3 will be tested. If one is positive, then the other 2 will be scheduled for testing. They also said it would take 4-7 days to get the results back. This is not robust and quick testing.

[wufan]

Kansas should have been testing. I think it is less valuable at this point.

[SB Shock]

Kansas should have been testing. I think it is less valuable at this point.

If you don’t have robust testing and surveillance with contact tracing - then your community will be at risk for community spread and either things will not be opening up or more lockdowns will happen, because ultimately you will see the hospitals being flooded again.

One Trumps own requirements is robust treating, and their must be a downward trend of positive tests with increased testing before opening things up again.

[wsushox1]

Good news out of NIAID (Fauci) on Remdesivir today. Don't underestimate a therapeutic that gives people confidence to try to go somewhat back to normal.

[SB Shock]

Good news out of NIAID on Remdesivir today. Don't underestimate a therapeutic that gives people confidence to try to go somewhat back to normal.

To me, that is more important than a vaccine. If you have a way of treating it, then you have a way forward and things can move forward quicker.

[Kung Wu]

What amount of the variability of increased cases is explained by increased testing, if you don't mind me asking? (Asking for R-Squared)

R² = 0.68419