Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[Kung Wu]

It's all about hospitalizations. Last week in Sedgwick County there were 12 hospitalizations. The prior week has been revised up from 1 to 6 to 8 to 10 ... which is really odd. But the take away is that Sedgwick County is definitely seeing an increase in hospitalizations over the past 5-6 weeks, and people should be aware and taking that into consideration when going out and about for sure.

Also, Kansas' R_t is elevated at 1.17, which means the potential to spread has increased -- though it's still well below influenza's R₀ of 1.3.

My personal take away: Social distance, wear masks if you are around crowds, wash your hands after touching public surfaces; but we are nowhere near quarantine your family territory at this point.

[C0|dB|00ded]

I think a part of it is his nosophobia.

You guys just need to watch and UNDERSTAND the video I've posted numerous times. The wisdom is both obvious... and nuanced.

I'm the one that's afraid... right.

Actually, fear and ignorance go hand and hand. It's usually those that do cartwheels with statistics in hopes of creating alternate realities that are truly the most afraid. It comes across as confidence but inside they are truly shaking. I on the other hand am as calm and collected as possible because I know I've - more than done my part - to help society curb the spread. Whether or not it amounts to a hill of beans will be up to the gods. In this particular forum? I'm dubious. But with family, friends, and colleagues... fo sho.

Now let's back to attempting to win carnival prizes by using selective statistics to support a biased narrative. Never mind the professionals that actually do this for a living. WE'RE PLOTTING THE END GAME RIGHT HERE ON SHOCKERNET! Hopefully the CDC has this thread flagged.


T


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[ShockingButTrue]

I can't keep up with the misinformation in this thread...

Here's a prediction for ya: I suspect the mathematical gymnastics in this thread will accelerate at nearly the same rate as hospitalizations across the U.S.

Lemme see if I can address some points really quickly:

1) Don't throw your masks away after use. Keep one in your car for shopping trips. The heat and time will sterilize it enough. If you work in a Covid unit at a hospital, throw your mask away. I have never thrown one of my masks away yet.

2) Gloves are helpful in that they act as a second layer of skin - they also protect areas where virus like to hide like under your fingernails. If you have skin problems you are more susceptible to infection than folks with healthy skin. Wear the gloves and disinfect
occasionally while shopping for an extra layer of protection (on your goods). Toss the gloves when leaving the store, load the grocery sacks into your trunk and disinfect your hands again. Storing non-perishables in your trunk for a day in this heat will effectively sterilize them. No need to put them in your cabinets for a day or two.

3) There is no indication that "hot spot" testing versus "normal testing" is contributing to an increase in infection rates (lol). Every medical professional worth their salt agrees that the acceleration in infections we are experiencing is real and not a statistical error/manipulation. And nobody is adding positive antibody tests and viral infection tests together... that would be absurd lol. They are completely different tests which are administered, analyzed, and recorded separately. It isn't easy to get a hold of a serology test either.

4) The graphical data that I recently posted is from John Hopkins.

5) Limiting singing in a church (or even church gatherings) is a very good idea because....... we literally have a case study where a choir created a super-spreader event (52 of the 60 singers (or 86.7%) became infected and they were not shaking hands or hugging). It's not because infectious disease experts hate God. Outdoor rallies are magnitudes safer than going inside a building (i.e. church) and sitting next to people in limited air circulation for an hour. Why don't the churches rent tents and have revivals like the old days. Why keep wanting to go indoors and testing "God's will"? Sounds a lot like the rattlesnake churches where the membership pass around snakes to prove God's protection over them. "Do not test the lord thy God" aka do not assemble inside buildings in the middle of a pandemic.

6) Trump is now going to have a rally outside, which is what he should have done all along. They really don't have a single person in his administration with the foresight and intelligence of a CB? Sad.

7) The virus appears to have mutated so it is anywhere between 3x and 9x more infectious. It's said it isn't more deadly per se, but the act of being more infectious implies more infections, thus more deaths so... do the math and Do. Not. Congregate.


T


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I can't take your discourse seriously in the slightest. Maybe if you wouldn't have claimed it's nuanced (but I know you ain't serious, so it's all good). You neglect morbidity %, but admittedly I haven't the stomach to delve back to deeply into your earlier posts. Too much fog. Maybe you did.

Nor have I seen you mention (recently) diabetes, hypertension, obesity and of course last but not least age as primary comorbidites. You must put those charts up next, for the group, because I don't need 'em. I've seen 'em. You'd come off as a little more knowledgeable if you did. You would even be addressed as a critical thinker too. Chris cuomo is a tool ok? Don't believe him cold. You know better.

If you see someone without a mask, for heaven's sake, stay 6' away, but don't call the popo on 'em man... Fixed it.

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

Deaths have been going down since April.

Overall hospitalizations have been going down since April.

Only 2.6% of the deaths have been people under 44 years of age.

Only 19% of the deaths have been people under 64 years of age.

These statistics cover 274,736,241 people, or ~84% of the US population.

[SHOCKvalue]

Deaths have been going down since April.

Overall hospitalizations have been going down since April.

Only 2.6% of the deaths have been people under 44 years of age.

Only 19% of the deaths have been people under 64 years of age.

These statistics cover 274,736,241 people, or ~84% of the US population.

Stop with the maths. There's no room for the maths here.

[Shock Top]

[C0|dB|00ded]

My personal take away: Social distance, wear masks if you are around crowds, wash your hands after touching public surfaces; but we are nowhere near quarantine your family territory at this point.

Seems like we are both on the same page with respect to responsible personal behavior. So why the sheep in wolf's clothing act? The entire premise of your "early-warning" analysis is clearly flawed and doing a disservice to anyone using it to calibrate their response. I've offered you the lily pad video in hopes that you would understand that you can't graph your way out of a pandemic, you can only act early and hope you are wrong. The moment you see hospitalizations rising is the moment you are late to the party IF the pandemic plays out exponentially. Your ability to contribute to staving off the growth rate explosion having already passed.

So let me try another angle in hopes of clarifying things further.

Let's imagine you finally got that shot at the babe of the ball. It's a full moon on Friday night and you are absolutely balls deep and howling. A week goes by and you get a call from this dime. She proceeds to tell you that she has one of the worst cases of Herp Dawg known to mankind and was unable to tell you while she was under your spell. She apologizes profusely while crying. Your response is thus: "No worries babe, I'll just head to the fun drawer and double-don my little soldier with a latex outfit right now. Thanks for the heads up babe!


Now do you understand better the "spirit" of prophylaxis behavior with respect to Covid-19? You have to overreact to be acting in time. You don't know who on the streets has Covid-Herp-Dawg. Yes, theoretically you can track the results of hospitalizations, deaths, etc., but you cannot have a tangible effect on their outcome by REACTING to their tally. You must PROACTIVELY take yourself OUT of the infection pool by being a "liberal" and wearing a mask. You must OVERREACT, to be acting in proper time.

Fauci: 'If it looks like you're overreacting, you're probably doing the right thing'

I do hope we shall passively-aggressively bump heads no longer sir!


T


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[C0|dB|00ded]

Deaths have been going down since April.

Overall hospitalizations have been going down since April.

Only 2.6% of the deaths have been people under 44 years of age.

Only 19% of the deaths have been people under 64 years of age.

These statistics cover 274,736,241 people, or ~84% of the US population.

Bro your "maths" are misleading. But if I may, I'd like to glean a little tidbit from your data that could be the linchpin to ending our kerfluffle.

"Only 19% of the deaths have been people under 64 years of age."

Let's look under the sheets on this comment a bit shall we? It appears you are attempting to convince me of my overreaction due to the fact that we both are under 64 years of age... well, my Shocker friend, I have not ONCE taken into consideration my own personal risk at any point during my posts on here or my conversations in the real world. It's appears you may have inadvertently relegated the lives of those on this fine forum (and the planet) who are over 64 years of age as "those other people". My personal genetics are more similar to Khan of Star Trek (sans the pectoral prosthesis) than mere Shockernet mortals. I would literally be the last person on earth to die from Covid-19. I look 10 years younger than my age (which is considerably less than 64), maintain the body of a Greek god, eat healthy, supplement, manage stress, meditate, sex, blah, blah, blahhhhh. So my intentions of educating (scaring if necessary) the fine people within my 6 degrees, is purely altruistic... save for my parents who are definitely in the age risk category. But they share my genetics also so...

Let's turn off FOX news for a bit shall we (nothing wrong with Fox news btw) and temporarily unplug from the Matrix and really listen to what ol' CB has to say. I promise you it's good for you (and society)... kinda like eating your vegetables.


T


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[JVShocker]

Let's turn off FOX news for a bit shall we (nothing wrong with Fox news btw) and temporarily unplug from the Matrix and really listen to what ol' CB has to say. I promise you it's good for you (and society)... kinda like eating your vegetables.

T

[Aargh]

We're being told to keep politics out of this thread, but politics have been injected into this discussion at the national level. This discussion is virtually impossible without political overtones. Supporting one position is automatically seen as opposing a different position. That's not the way to discuss a public health issue.

I believe we all want to see schools open in fall. We want to see college and NFL football in the fall. We all want to see businesses go back to full capacity and bring back all their employees.

Maybe I'm naive, uninformed, or biased by mainstream media, but I believe the best way to achieve those common goals is to reduce the spread of the virus.

The CDC and the top epidemiologists say that the best way to slow the spread of the virus is:
1) Wear a mask|
2) Avoid large gatherings of indoor groups
3) Regular hand washing
4) Social distancing

The best way to achieve the common goals of everybody is to slow the spread of the virus.

There seems to be a viewpoint based on the Constitutional right to not have to follow those guidelines. I'm not going to get into that argument, but the scientific and medical communities all say that if you don't follow those guidelines, we will not get rid of this virus.

The counter to the CDC guidelines seems to be "Ignore it - it will go away". That does not seem to be a successful strategy.

I don't care how much you want to stand up for your Constitutional rights, wear the ******* masks. Even if it's just to show that you support the best way to get the economy, the schools, and sports back to as close to normal as they can get this year. Even if you know that wearing a mask doesn't matter. Show others that you support maintaining and controlling the virus, and that you believe in the science of how to control the virus.

I don't believe that your Constitutional right to not be concerned about the spread of a potentially fatal virus is greater than my Constitutional right (that life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness thing that's actually in there) Constitutional right to leave my house without the threat of a potentially fatal infection when the country is experiencing an epidemic.

You want the schools open? Tiy want a football season? You want a basketball season? Then do everything you can to slow the spread of this virus.

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

Bro your "maths" are misleading. But if I may, I'd like to glean a little tidbit from your data that could be the linchpin to ending our kerfluffle.

"Only 19% of the deaths have been people under 64 years of age."

Let's look under the sheets on this comment a bit shall we? It appears you are attempting to convince me of my overreaction due to the fact that we both are under 64 years of age... well, my Shocker friend, I have not ONCE taken into consideration my own personal risk at any point during my posts on here or my conversations in the real world. It's appears you may have inadvertently relegated the lives of those on this fine forum (and the planet) who are over 64 years of age as "those other people". My personal genetics are more similar to Khan of Star Trek (sans the pectoral prosthesis) than mere Shockernet mortals. I would literally be the last person on earth to die from Covid-19. I look 10 years younger than my age (which is considerably less than 64), maintain the body of a Greek god, eat healthy, supplement, manage stress, meditate, sex, blah, blah, blahhhhh. So my intentions of educating (scaring if necessary) the fine people within my 6 degrees, is purely altruistic... save for my parents who are definitely in the age risk category. But they share my genetics also so...

Let's turn off FOX news for a bit shall we (nothing wrong with Fox news btw) and temporarily unplug from the Matrix and really listen to what ol' CB has to say. I promise you it's good for you (and society)... kinda like eating your vegetables.


T


...

Well, my "maths" as you put it are straight from the CDC so I guess you have an issue with their numbers.

As for the second part of your comment, I don't even know where to start with that garbage. First of all, you know what they say about those who have to brag about their physique and prowess right? I'll leave it at that.

The point of my post is that we are never going to save everyone or prevent everyone from getting the virus. That is not selfish thinking that is logical and reasonable thinking. Heck, the majority of people over 64 will be fine also. It results in death in a very minimal percentage of the population. I don't know why that is so hard for some to comprehend. The goal is to slow the spread (wearing masks, social distancing, etc) and to protect the majority of people. These things are being done. Let go of the CNN, MSNBC, and NPR bias and think about it critically and logically.

[wufan]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/miami-police-suggest-non-essential-businesses-close-before-friday-protest/2248046/%3famp

[wufan]

1. No one can say what is required for reopening with confidence. The CDC tried, but their recommendations were ignored. All we can do now is look at results of reopening and try to learn from them. Florida and Texas ignored the CDC's recommendations. That didn't work out well for them. Perhaps we could learn something.

2. Agreed. Rules and guidelines have been violated without regard to political affiliation. Florida didn't have massive leftist protests. Miami-Dade County now has CV positives in excess of 25%. Minnesota isn't among the states with high rates of increased incidence. Kansas is among the states with high rates of increased infection. Kansas had minimal leftist protests.

I think something other than leftist protests is feeding the current exponential increase of infections in the USA. The rate of increase in infections in OK actually declined after Trump's rally there. The Secret Service agents that got infected while setting up for Trump's visit probably wish that had happened before they went to Tulsa.

The CDC said that after 14 days of reduced positive tests, states should move forward with reopening. Texas and Florida were the first states to ignore that and reopen everything while they still had increasing rates of positive tests. Those are now the hot spots. When people travel from the hot spots to places that have followed guidelines and have the virus pretty much under control (New York), they will bring the virus back to those areas.

As a nation, we are no better at defeating the spread of the virus than whatever state is the worst at defeating the spread of the virus. This is one time when Kansas being in the heart of "flyover country" is an absolute blessing.

I take issue with the fact that “no one can say” what numbers are important. An art of less than 1 with three weeks of open ICU beds seems reasonable. Remember, this was two weeks to slow the spread.

[Kung Wu]

It is NOT about "stopping the spread". It's about slowing it down to something the hospitals can handle.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/social-distancing.html

Social Distancing

Keep a Safe Distance to Slow the Spread.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/diy-cloth-face-coverings.html

Use of Cloth Face Coverings to Help Slow the Spread of COVID-19

The CDC has been, is, and always will be about "flattening the curve". The graphs they show have the same amount of "spread" no matter what -- it's just a matter of whether it all comes in a single spike that hospitals can't handle, or whether it comes in a looooong drawn out wave. Either way, the area under either curve is the same -- which means the same amount of people get infected:




Your statistical chance of _getting the virus_ is the same either way. Your statistical chance of _survival and having better treatment_ goes way up if hospitals aren't overwhelmed when it's your turn.

When hospitals aren't in a threat of being overwhelmed in your county, you should go back to normal.

When there is a threat of hospitals being overwhelmed in your county, you should be flattening the curve.

To get through this as quickly as possible, you should oscillate between those two states as makes sense based on what the hospitalizations and spread potential level (R_t) are.

[Aargh]

With no increase in the number of tests given, both the case count and the positive percentage in Sedgwick County go up.

https://www.kansas.com/news/coronavi...244026982.html