Tweet
Day 3 (or is it 4?) of quarantine. I'm bored. On the other hand, mrs p is getting along pretty well with her new knee this morning.
-
-
-
Day 3 (or is it 4?) of quarantine. I'm bored. On the other hand, mrs p is getting along pretty well with her new knee this morning.
Get well soon!
'Im going through the Suparz treatments now. . Im going to
replace both of them at the same time. Put my second round off until August/September so I dont have to go back until next summer.
Exercise definitely helps.Comment
-
Can she climb a ladder and paint now?Originally posted by pinstripers View PostKung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
-
No, but I went to Amazon.com and ordered a walker with a vacuum cleaner attachment.Originally posted by Kung Wu View PostComment
-
Atta boy!Originally posted by pinstripers View PostKung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
-
She must getting along really well if she could kick you that hard to force u to have to use a walker!Originally posted by pinstripers View PostComment
-
What monkeys devised that 7 day graph? The experts/epidemiologists at cnn, or politico? Talk about a false equivalent, if not outright cherry pickin'.Originally posted by C0|dB|00ded View Post
You'll never find a better example of uncorrelated as long as you live.
Trump is so far off the mark on this that if he continues he may end up becoming right. Either that or the hole he's digging will reach China and that will definitely change the news cycle.
T
...
April 21: Daily deaths- 2,749 / Total Cases- 692, 671
July 4: Daily deaths- 254 / Total cases- 1,543,047
I'm guessing the person/people who conjured up that graph are the same people who blamed this whole unfortunate virus episode on your President because "6000 people at a rally" that was 10 days ago vs. what we've all witnessed from the Fearless Idiot Parades of the last 5 weeks. Measure that correlation. It's substantive to the debate.
Anchors Aweigh Flakes.jpgComment
-
Day 4 of quarantine. No China virus symptoms yet. Hospital has made arrangements so that she can sneak in a back door and do her knee rehab in a isolated room. She doesn't seem to grasp why I can't take her to the drive-thru for a big gulp. Complicating things, our county finally has it's first reported case.Comment
-
The future's so bright - I gotta wear shades.
We like to cut down nets and get sized for championship rings.Comment
-
Why do you keep posting stats about total coronavirus cases? They are totally meaningless.Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
-
When both total cases AND percentage of those testing positive are going up, total cases are incredibly meaningful Total cases gives a count of how many people are spreading the virus. That's meaningful. With an R(0) that appears to be above 1, total cases gives a look at where we will be in 2 - 4 weeks.Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post
That chart is not total cases. That chart is new cases in the most recent week per 1,000,000 people. When total new cases are going up at that rate, the chances of contacting the virus are also going up.
With more testing we are finding case counts increasing dramatically. We are also seeing percent of positives increasing by significant amounts. If you are looking at possibility of contracting CV, the number of asymptomatic positives is meaningful.
New cases are a data point in shutting things down again.
The future's so bright - I gotta wear shades.
We like to cut down nets and get sized for championship rings.Comment
-
No, total cases is not incredibly meaningful. It tells you the size of a SUBSET of the population that has coronavirus and/or antibodies. It does NOT tell you what PERCENT of the total cases you have accounted for, or what percent of the total cases are asymptotic, mild, sick, or has antibodies. <--- All of that makes it useless for any reasonable analysis.Originally posted by Aargh View Post
No, total cases really doesn't tell us where we will be in 2-4 weeks. R0 is the baseline reproductive number and is now meaningless for predictive modeling _at this point in time_. The only meaningful way to start making short and medium term predictions is with Rt (which you can see here: https://rt.live/) and current hospitalizations.Originally posted by Aargh View Post
Yes, I misstated "total" cases, when I should have said "new" cases. Does not change the argument at all. New and total cases are meaningless, unfortunately. The methodologies to collect those numbers has changed so many times, you simply cannot compare current numbers with past numbers, let alone with other countries who have vastly different methodologies.Originally posted by Aargh View Post
*sigh* We are counting more ASYMPTOTIC and MILD cases now. And to make it worse we are also now including antibody positives in those numbers. And with contact tracing we are highly targeting our testing, which means -- of COURSE percentages are going to increase: MILD cases that would not have been counted before are leading to MORE MILD cases which ALSO wouldn't have been counted before. And now ANTIBODY results are being lumped into those same counts! All you are doing is inflating numbers with no statistical reward or way to do ANYTHING useful with that number. The ONLY way those numbers would be helpful is if you knew the percent of population that are asymptotic, mild, sick, or antibody. You CANNOT derive that with new/total case numbers.Originally posted by Aargh View Post
Yes, states decided to use case counts early on when they were reliable predictors -- before the methodologies changed. Now they are stuck using a worthless number to make decisions, because they are not informed and nimble enough to do anything different.Originally posted by Aargh View PostKung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
-
All of this is to say ... while new and total cases are meaningless, that does NOT mean that we don't have hot spots. We certainly can and do, and they can be determined with hospitalization increases and Rt.Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
-
I'm guessing total number of cases will go up through the early part of next year.
And...
Comment
Comment