Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[SB Shock]

K-State has suspended their football voluntary workouts as they have had 14 players test positive for COVID. I don't see how any college sports will be played this year.


MLB is now reconsidering their plan to restarting their season after being forced to suspend all their activities in Arizona and Florida due to COVID positive tests.

https://sports.yahoo.com/report-mlb-...214047227.html

This person familiar with baseball’s thinking said that MLB could look at Southern California as a potential site. The region has three MLB stadiums—Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, Angel Stadium in Anaheim, and Petco Park in San Diego—as well as several colleges with quality ballparks. It’s still unclear whether the “bubble” plan will become serious enough for the league to broach with the union.

[WuDrWu]

I think Clemson had 13 after maybe 9 the week before? I could be off there.

I'm with SB. I don't think there's going to be any sports this fall. I'm thinking about 75% of no college sports. MAYBE there are spring sports, but no better than 50-50.

[Kung Wu]

Imagine scaling a coronavirus particle to the size of a copper BB, then scaling your CLOTH mask by the same factor.

How big would a 7.5"h x 4.5"w mask be relative to the copper BB?

4.4 miles x 2.7 miles

But what about the size of the pores in the cloth mask? Depending on the fabric chosen, each pore will be between:

9.8 feet in diameter to 56.7 feet in diameter

And how many pores would be in the massive wall at those sizes?

Somewhere between 58,000 and 228,000 holes

With a CLOTH mask you are trying to stop a BB from being vacuumed through 58,000 to 228,000 holes, which are each the diameter of a 1 to 5 story building, in a wall that stretches from Hillside to Webb road, and is high enough that you are required to have supplemental oxygen in an aircraft.

--

Hopefully that gives you a visual sense of just how small a coronavirus particle is relative to a cloth mask.

If you are at risk, please strongly consider using surgical masks (or N95 if you can get your hand on one) instead of cloth masks.

Most of the calculations above were done using data from this peer reviewed journal article: https://peerj.com/articles/7142/#supp-3

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

Imagine scaling a coronavirus particle to the size of a copper BB, then scaling your CLOTH mask by the same factor.

How big would a 7.5"h x 4.5"w mask be relative to the copper BB?

4.4 miles x 2.7 miles

But what about the size of the pores in the cloth mask? Depending on the fabric chosen, each pore will be between:

9.8 feet in diameter to 56.7 feet in diameter

And how many pores would be in the massive wall at those sizes?

Somewhere between 58,000 and 228,000 holes

With a CLOTH mask you are trying to stop a BB from being vacuumed through 58,000 to 228,000 holes, which are each the diameter of a 1 to 5 story building, in a wall that stretches from Hillside to Webb road, and is high enough that you are required to have supplemental oxygen in an aircraft.

--

Hopefully that gives you a visual sense of just how small a coronavirus particle is relative to a cloth mask.

If you are at risk, please strongly consider using surgical masks (or N95 if you can get your hand on one) instead of cloth masks.

Most of the calculations above were done using data from this peer reviewed journal article: https://peerj.com/articles/7142/#supp-3

I ordered N95 masks (admittedly on Ebay). They must have came from China, it took forever to get them. I just ordered 10 more Bonmed masks (again on Ebay). I'm not going to pretend that perhaps they may not be authentic, but I used one because I had to take a short plane trip and it worked really well. Better than the junk I see in some of the stores (and tried) If you start to talk or otherwise move your jaws, the mask fits so tight it makes in uncomfortable.

Note they have the 3m's but they are very expensive at $4-5 per mask.

[Kung Wu]

I ordered N95 masks (admittedly on Ebay). They must have came from China, it took forever to get them. I just ordered 10 more Bonmed masks (again on Ebay). I'm not going to pretend that perhaps they may not be authentic, but I used one because I had to take a short plane trip and it worked really well. Better than the junk I see in some of the stores (and tried) If you start to talk or otherwise move your jaws, the mask fits so tight it makes in uncomfortable.

Note they have the 3m's but they are very expensive at $4-5 per mask.

Smart. N95s (and surely the knock-offs) and surgical masks have microfibers that put them in a league all their own. It's really like comparing the pores of a slice of Kraft American cheese (practically plastic with no pores visible to the human eye) with swiss cheese (where you can stick your finger through a pore without damaging the cheese).

I think where the N95's really kick butt when dealing with particles the size we are talking about is the electrostatic charge they undergo.

[Kung Wu]

There were 7 people admitted to the hospital in Sedgwick County last week. That brings the average number of hospitalizations per week over a 5 week period from 3.8 admissions/week up to 4.2 admissions/week.

[ShockerFever]

I don’t watch the “news” anymore. I’m sure they’re reporting how the death rate is trending in this country. What is it trending anyway?

[WstateU]

No problem 'social distancing' when I wear my old pair of Fruit of the Looms... people run Ray, people run!

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

I don’t watch the “news” anymore. I’m sure they’re reporting how the death rate is trending in this country. What is it trending anyway?

It's declining but you likely won't hear anything about that on the "news". Cases are going up slightly, but death rates are going down. Meaning, better treatments as we know what to expect and how to handle it.

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https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-ca...1b63ee022.html

[ShockingButTrue]

Haven't been watching much of cnn these days.

I guess there's been more testing over the last 3 weeks. Does that explain the number of cases going up? But yet the mortality rate is at it's lowest since April?

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

Haven't been watching much of cnn these days.

I guess there's been more testing over the last 3 weeks. Does that explain the number of cases going up? But yet the mortality rate is at it's lowest since April?

Bingo. That is exactly the case. More widespread testing has led to the "spike" in several places.

[revenge_of_shocka_khan]

OK, so here's what is going on in Texas.....
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...or-coronavirus

"Texas Gov. Greg Abbott recently called out young adults for a spike in new cases, citing reports of packed bars and people failing to do social distancing.

In Brownsville, Texas, Dr. Joseph McCormick, an epidemiologist with the UT Health School of Public Health, said new infections in people under 35 have shot up dramatically, accounting for more than half of the recent cases in his region.

"We are seeing a resurgence of transmission, and it's being driven by younger people," he said. He said that older people still make up the bulk of hospitalizations.

Crowded beaches and bars at the nearby resort town is "pretty clear evidence" of why younger adults are the ones getting sick in his community, McCormick said. "This is relatively new, and I think it's because that segment of the population decided, 'OK, I'm free,' whereas the older group is thinking, 'Woah, wait a minute, I'm still in jeopardy.' "

There is lower morbidity among the young than there is among the old. However, it does not preclude those people getting sick enough to be hospitalized. And once they get there, they start clogging up the hospital capacity.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06...-young-adults/

One of the areas of concern Abbott mentioned was Hays County, where 476 of the 938 confirmed cases are people ages 20 to 29. People in their 20s accounted for 50.7% of all the cases in Hays County as of Monday, an increase from Friday, when the age group made up 42% of total cases.

Last week, epidemiologist Eric Schneider warned that those numbers are "staggering" for Hays County.

San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg also expressed concern Monday about more young people getting sick.

“What’s most concerning is that we’ve seen the largest increase in infection among 20-year-olds,” Nirenberg said in a televised interview with ABC, adding that city officials are seeing younger patients in the hospitals as well. “While they may survive an illness, younger people are going to be stuck with a pretty hefty medical bill at the end of it.”

In Travis County and the city of Austin, the median age of all positive cases has ticked downward to 38 years old this week, from 39 years old last week. Twenty- to 29-year-olds make up 24% of all cases in the area and 8.3% of the hospitalizations.

As for Dallas County, the trend is reflected in hospitalizations rather than new cases. Almost a month ago, on May 19, 18% of all people hospitalized were between the ages of 18 and 40, the age range used by local officials to designate young adults. On Tuesday, that age group made up 21% of hospitalizations.

Dr. David Persse, public health authority for the Houston Health Department, said the same trend is materializing in Harris County. Overall, 17.5% of all people impacted in that area are people in their 20s.

So in my area, we are starting to run out of ICU beds. Our rate of positivity is somewhere around 13.2 days, meaning we are doubling the number of cases every 13 days or so.

I was told by a colleague, who's sister is an executive with a large hospital here told me last week that contingency plans are being drawn up because they are getting very concerned that the rate of new infections will overwhelm ICU beds here. If that happens in all large metro areas, there is a very real possibility that people will die because there is no room at the hospitals for them.

Also note that mortality is a lagging indicator, meaning that people really don't get really sick and/or die right off.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...-patients.html
Clinical Progression


Among patients who developed severe disease, the medium time to dyspnea ranged from 5 to 8 days, the median time to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) ranged from 8 to 12 days, and the median time to ICU admission ranged from 10 to 12 days.^5,6,10,11 Clinicians should be aware of the potential for some patients to rapidly deteriorate one week after illness onset. Among all hospitalized patients, a range of 26% to 32% of patients were admitted to the ICU.^6,8,11 Among all patients, a range of 3% to 17% developed ARDS compared to a range of 20% to 42% for hospitalized patients and 67% to 85% for patients admitted to the ICU.^1,4-6,8,11 Mortality among patients admitted to the ICU ranges from 39% to 72% depending on the study.^5,8,10,11 The median length of hospitalization among survivors was 10 to 13 days.^1,6,8

So we are breaking hospital admission records every day in all large metro areas in Texas. That means there will be a corresponding increase in deaths in the next couple of weeks or so. About the only good thing about this is that, again, the morbidity based on age will keep the number of deaths low (unless they go home and infect grandma and grampa).

But that does not mean that hospitalizations might overwhelm the system and cause people to die needlessly. It remains to be seen whether that will happen, but our Governor is now expressing alarm (and he was expressing mere concern last week).

Top 3 places to contract Covid in my area? 1) Bars 2) Gyms and 3) Car dealerships.

[wufan]

Young folks aren’t ending up in the hospital. CV is less lethal than flu in people under 50. Get that herd immunity!!!

[ShockTalk]

Young folks aren’t ending up in the hospital. CV is less lethal than flu in people under 50. Get that herd immunity!!!

Do we know it is working that way yet?

[wufan]

Herd immunity always works. It’s just dangerous for those out in front. I can’t remember the percentage required, but I think the spread slows when around 15% of a population is infected.