Other Valley Conference Games Thread 2016-2017

[WSUwatcher]

When you look at the valley this year, it matters almost ZERO which side of the bracket you end up on.

I'm not so sure, DS. The theory all along has been that you want to avoid a potential Saturday date with UNI (and thus finish #1 instead of #2, because the UNIs are all but locked in at #3) -- and I'll admit that for a while I was tempted by that thinking, too. After Saturday's game, though, I'm thinking that WSU matches up very well with UNI and should be able to handle them anytime. As a result, finishing as the #2 seed should be nothing to fear, whereas the most annoying and dangerous team out there is probably Loyola, which is likely to be #4 or #5 and thus a potential Saturday foe for #1.

So all that actually argues in favor of being the #2 seed, although I don't expect that to happen; I think the beaches of Cedar Falls are looking more treacherous every day for IllSt in their finale. Pick your metaphor: the mantle of leadership is getting a bit heavy for them, the collar is getting a little tight, the ankle bracelets a bit too restrictive. But the bottom line is that the Jailbirds are wavering just as WSU is kicking it up a notch. One nice thing about being #1, though: I personally think there's also a decent chance that if WSU can start from that point and make it to Sunday, the team waiting for them might be a lesser foe than the Jailbirds, because if IllSt does indeed end up #2 it would not surprise me at all to see their stay in St. Louis end Saturday.

[Dan]

I think Loyola is the only other team that can win St. Louis. UNI can't score enough points to win it all and MSU is way too inconsistent to win 3 games straight.

[ShockRef]

STL variables

None of the bottom 8 has a chance in STL, including UNI.
Agree with Dan on MSU (inconsistent) and UNI (lack of offense). However, Loyola has zero depth and 3 days in a row of tough games will wear down their legs and stamina.
The 7-10 teams are toast and the ones that do win that night need to savor because they will get smoked the next day.

The 3-6 & 4-5 games could be entertaining, but mere formalities to the Sunday showdown.
In fact, The Valley could save a whole lot of expense by just cancelling the other games and have ISU & WSU play a best 2 out of 3 series. It would make for some good TV too.

That is all.

[ShockerPhi]

They split the season series 1 game each. Margin of Victory is not relevant.

Just for fun, let's look at the scoring margin for both teams in the MVC.

Illinois State: +137
Wichita State: +311

This margin includes both losses to each other. Take out the two games played against each other and just look at other Valley opponents, and it's still pretty wide...

Illinois State: +164, average MOV: 10.9 points
Wichita State: +284, average MOV: 18.9 points

It's a damn shame we use RPI as the tie breaker...

[RoyalShock]

IIRC, when the change was made to use RPI as a tie-breaker, the decision was supported here since we wanted the other teams to schedule up to help our RPI for NCAA inclusion and seeding.

[WheatShock]

IIRC, when the change was made to use RPI as a tie-breaker, the decision was supported here since we wanted the other teams to schedule up to help our RPI for NCAA inclusion and seeding.

I don't have a problem with the MVC using RPI as the tiebreaker. Its time to look at switching to a better metric but the basic principal of using it to encourage better scheduling is sound.

[Cdizzle]

IIRC, when the change was made to use RPI as a tie-breaker, the decision was supported here since we wanted the other teams to schedule up to help our RPI for NCAA inclusion and seeding.

They originally changed it to NCSOS which did this directly. Now they've watered it down.

[Dave Stalwart]

IIRC, when the change was made to use RPI as a tie-breaker, the decision was supported here since we wanted the other teams to schedule up to help our RPI for NCAA inclusion and seeding.

I actually don't have a problem with the rule. What is happening this year is obviously a severe outlier. I mean if OU wins just a couple more games, and if we'd have just scheduled Newman instead of Maryland Eastern Shore, we probably have a better RPI than Illinois State. We are only 6 spots behind them, which is effectively a wash, and everyone around the whole league is going to be talking about how obvious it is that WSU is the heavier heavyweight in the conference, even though we are the #2 seed.

I'm just choosing to have fun with it because its really not a big deal.

[RoyalShock]

They originally changed it to NCSOS which did this directly. Now they've watered it down.

I kept thinking it was NCSOS but just assumed I wasn't remembering it correctly and it must have been RPI. Thanks for pointing that out.

[1972Shocker]

They originally changed it to NCSOS which did this directly. Now they've watered it down.

That did not last too long did it?

[ShockerInKC]

None of the bottom 8 has a chance in STL, including UNI.
Agree with Dan on MSU (inconsistent) and UNI (lack of offense). However, Loyola has zero depth and 3 days in a row of tough games will wear down their legs and stamina.
The 7-10 teams are toast and the ones that do win that night need to savor because they will get smoked the next day.

The 3-6 & 4-5 games could be entertaining, but mere formalities to the Sunday showdown.
In fact, The Valley could save a whole lot of expense by just cancelling the other games and have ISU & WSU play a best 2 out of 3 series. It would make for some good TV too.

That is all.

Would Elgin also require we lose the 2nd game to build tension before our eventual dismantlement of ISU in the final?

PS. For the rest of the season I suggest that ISU = Illinois State as the other one is no longer in contention.

[The Mad Hatter]

Given the danger of McIntosh missing more games due to tweaking his knee, I think he really needs to go out and get himself arrested since doing so as an Illinois State player is the surest way to guarantee you don't miss any playing time.

[Dave Stalwart]

Given the danger of McIntosh missing more games due to tweaking his knee, I think he really needs to go out and get himself arrested since doing so as an Illinois State player is the surest way to guarantee you don't miss any playing time.

This is the best post for probably all of February.

[JayPak]

But it SHOULD be.

That is my only point.

No way ISUr is the better team, and everyone knows that.

The hole in that argument is the season split, though WSU's dismantling in game 2 proved a point, and no way do the jailbirds win in The Lou.

[SHOCKvalue]

IIRC, when the change was made to use RPI as a tie-breaker, the decision was supported here since we wanted the other teams to schedule up to help our RPI for NCAA inclusion and seeding.

Would there actually be an effectual difference between NCSOS and RPI, when you share a conference? I can't see how those statistical measures could produce two different outcomes, in this context. It should all come out in the laundry, I guess I'm saying.