2016-17 Bracketology

[Shocktoberfest]

Jerry has K-State (even after the 30 point loss to OU) still closer to the bubble than WSU.

K-State
lost 7 of last 9 games
6-10 in Big 12 play and projected to finish 7-11.
RPI - 69 (29 spots behind WSU)
KenPom - 37 (27 spots behind WSU)

His horse**** opinions must really drive a ton of clicks to that freaking website. That's the only thing that makes sense at all.

[ShockerFever]

Jerry has K-State (even after the 30 point loss to OU) still closer to the bubble than WSU.

K-State
lost 7 of last 9 games
6-10 in Big 12 play and projected to finish 7-11.
RPI - 69 (29 spots behind WSU)
KenPom - 37 (27 spots behind WSU)

Even outside of his personal bias against WSU, I'd just like to see his justification for some of the teams he has ahead of them. I feel like he's just trolling at this point. #lossesdontmatter

[Cdizzle]

If a 30-point loss to a Woodard-less OU team isn't an auto-eliminator at this point in the game, something is wrong.

For comparison, this would be like WSU losing @ Evansville by 30. And Jaylon Brown didn't play. Or Loyola without Milton Doyle. That's what we're talking about here if one wants to use the RPI, as Palm clearly does.

Using a rating system as your only determinant (as many do with RPI, including records vs. portions of the RPI), but then completely ignoring that rating system for all the other implications it has, is really an interesting phenomenon to watch.

[Stickboy46]

Even outside of his personal bias against WSU, I'd just like to see his justification for some of the teams he has ahead of them. I feel like he's just trolling at this point. #lossesdontmatter

Top 100 wins ... that's the ONLY thing he looks at. We are 2-4 against the Top 100. If a team is 3-12 against the Top 100, he will put them ahead of us because they have 1 more Top 100 win. He's on twitter arguing that only 1 team has made it in with under 3 Top 100 wins(MTSU in 2013) and that's his reasoning. He literally ignoring everything else.

[top20shock]

K-State is toast. OU killed them.

[ShockerPrez]

K-State is toast. OU killed them.

You wait, the TCU/KState game will be tossed around as an NCAA qualifier game in some regard, I guarantee you.

[WSUwatcher]

WSU is in 96 of 98 Brackets as of Yesterday Morning on BracketMatrix. https://sportsentiment.com/ and Jerry Palm were the only 2 that had them out. As of yesterday afternoon, sportsentiment moved WSU into their field. That means Jerry Palm is literally the only Bracketoligist in the world that doesn't think WSU will make it ....

Facepalm has staked out his position, and he's going to stick with it. It gets him clicks and attention ("all publicity is good publicity"), and in the unlikely event something happens to leave WSU out or that the Shocks underperform once in, he'll be shouting Told-You-Sos from the rooftops. If he's confirmed to be an idiot, as we all anticipate, it'll mostly get lost in all the excitement of March Madness. He'll have to put up with crap from Gary Parrish and Shockernet, but that's a small price to pay. So it's just business at this point for him.

[Shocktoberfest]

Facepalm has staked out his position, and he's going to stick with it. It gets him clicks and attention, and in the unlikely event something happens to leave WSU out or that they underperform once in, he'll be shouting Told-You-Sos from the rooftops. If he's proven to be an idiot, as we all anticipate, it'll mostly get lost in all the excitement of March Madness. He'll have to put up with crap from Gary Parrish and Shockernet, but that's a small price to pay. So it's just business at this point.

If you've ever heard Scott Wetzel on Mad Dog XM 82 do his opposite picks that is what Face Palm is doing. Just contrarian. It is a schtick.

[ShockTalk]

The problem is each year the bar rises for mid-majors. We say the conferences are terrible, but look at the P5 teams that are supposed to get in. Marquette, RPI 72. It is literally impossible for a mid-major to get a bid with that low of an RPI, Illinois State will struggle in the 30s. Wake Forest, 0-7 in top 25 games. If that were Wichita State, we'd have a label "Unable to perform." TCU, 6-10 in the Big 12.

So where are the teams supposed to come from? The following teams outside the P5 + BE have top 60 RPIs:

13 Cincinnati, 16 Saint Mary's, 21 Dayton, 30 Illinois State, 34 UNC Wilmington, 37 UT Arlington, 38 Middle Tennessee, 39 Wichita State, 40 Nevada, 41 Monmouth, 44 Rhode Island, 46 Vermont, 52 Houston, 53 Princeton, 55 Akron, 58 Valparaiso, 59 Boise State

All of those should get in (should they lose their conference tournament) over a team like TCU, Marquette, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Georgia, Kansas State, Illinois, Clemson, Tennessee, Texas Tech, or Providence.

The narrative that all the "other" conferences got weaker is a constructed one. Yeah, we aren't seeing 4 tournament quality teams from the MWC or MVC, but there has been a deliberate effort to discredit the mid-major teams at or near the top of their conferences. There is a distinct difference between the way a 34 RPI mid-major and a 34 RPI P5 team are viewed, and that is no accident. In the past team's like Monmouth or Vermont would have been viewed more positively and teams like TCU or Clemson wouldn't have been bubble contenders.

Remember, I was not disagreeing with your first post. I was merely adding another factor that mid-major conferences are creating that also hurts them. Your points are very well taken that there is a harmful change afoot that harms not only mid-majors schools, but the tournament as a whole IMO. Mid-major conferences and teams need to be proactive in countering this change by doing everything they can to make it extremely difficult to get away with these shenanigans. Right now, they're not.

12 out of 32 conferences do not have a single team that would qualify on there own merits...they're not even close. Another 6 conferences have a potential at-large qualifier, but do not have another single team that has an RPI in the top 100. IMO, some of these conferences are taking a risk that their best team will not represent their conference. Having a sub 100 team beat that team in a conference tournament only hurts that conferences image and greatly lessens the chance for a first round win.

I think it's a total travesty that a team like Syracuse will most likely get in. They win a lot of big games, 6 so far in the top 50, but they lose a lot of questionable to bad games as well, 3-4 against 51-100, 4-2 against 101-200, and 5-1 against 200+, that are basically ignored. Nevertheless, some of those mid-major schools you listed will not get in if they lose in their tourney. However, they will have lost to a sub 100 team in doing so. Something some have done before, in some cases more often than Syracuse and they are without the high quality wins. It difficult to say either of those teams should get in, those high number of quality wins will negate those bad losses in the minds of the committee when it comes to who gets in. Some of these mid-major teams you listed did not even play a 51-100 game. That is something that could have given them a quality win, but now, nobody knows if they could have won that game because they didn't even play one.

When it comes to the strength of a mid-major conference, it is not necessarily having 4 tournament quality teams. It is reducing the number of bad teams and having a few teams in the 50-100 and 101-125 ranges along with 1 or 2 tournament quality teams. That will assure those teams get in.

I'm a strong supporter of eliminating teams from tournament consideration if they have a losing conference record and cannot win their second chance to qualify in their conference tournament. They are simply riding the coattails on their conference affiliation IMO.

[Ricardo del Rio]

Jerry has K-State (even after the 30 point loss to OU) still closer to the bubble than WSU.

K-State
lost 7 of last 9 games
6-10 in Big 12 play and projected to finish 7-11.
RPI - 69 (29 spots behind WSU)
KenPom - 37 (27 spots behind WSU)

I don't follow bracketology except to the extent of what I read here.

I sorta follow K-State and it seems incredulous that it is considered a candidate for the Dance.

If the final nail was not in the coffin before, the 30 point beat down by OU should have cinched it.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

For those wondering...

On Selection Sunday last year the bracketmatrix had WSU in 137 of 144 brackets, with an average seed of 9.86. They were projected as the 5th-to-last team in. The 11 seed and a play-in game was a surprise, but not completely out of nowhere.

Today, the matrix just updated, and WSU is in 111 of 113 brackets, with an average seed of 9.42. They are projected as the 10th-to-last team in. WSU is not actually on the bubble, no matter what Jerry Palm says. Only a loss on Friday can change that.

[Jhook89]

For those wondering...

On Selection Sunday last year the bracketmatrix had WSU in 137 of 144 brackets, with an average seed of 9.86. They were projected as the 5th-to-last team in. The 11 seed and a play-in game was a surprise, but not completely out of nowhere.

Today, the matrix just updated, and WSU is in 111 of 113 brackets, with an average seed of 9.42. They are projected as the 10th-to-last team in. WSU is not actually on the bubble, no matter what Jerry Palm says. Only a loss on Friday can change that.

That was after our loss to ISUr in Arch Madness last year though. This whole scenario hinges on us losing in St. Louis. If we do lose that will completely change our numbers this year for the worse. At that point would be a fair time to compare the numbers.

For the record, I think we will win Arch Madness and not even have to worry about this.

[Stickboy46]

We also weren't ranked .. though if we drop the final in Arch Madness we wont be ranked either probably.

[John Higgins]

I think it's a total travesty that a team like Syracuse will most likely get in. They win a lot of big games, 6 so far in the top 50, but they lose a lot of questionable to bad games as well, 3-4 against 51-100, 4-2 against 101-200, and 5-1 against 200+, that are basically ignored.

Even worse is that they are 2-8 in away games and 0-2 in neutral court games. So Syracuse has won 2 games away from the Carrier Dome all season and they are likely in! That's crazy.

[ShockerFever]

In Jerry's world, a WSU WIN over OU is holding them back from getting in. Meanwhile a KSU LOSS by 30 points to OU is keeping them in.

I know that's a snapshot thing but I find it hilarious.