2016 Bracketology

[newshock1234]

I hope all you twitterers are ready to flood Jerry on Sunday at about 5:30. Should be a fun show to watch. I'm sure he'll spin it well. You don't have to be douchy or anything, but I think some well-derserved crow will be in order after WSU was definitively NIT bound a short 7 days ago.

There's your 2016 Flip-flopper of the Year Award, Jerry. Congrats.

Already warned that i would. Although hes gonna say i had them in my last bracket

[ShockdaWorld]

This may be old news but Jerry Palm now has us as 11 seed last four in playing in Dayton. Although Jerry is a flopping a$$ clown, I would love to see this bracket come to fruition. I like my chances with Michigan/Dayton/Miami to start the dance.

At this point, I'd be happy with an 11 seed, although I think we will be slightly better off than that. That being said, how sick would it be to have to play Dayton IN Dayton.

[pinstripers]

Seth Davis @SethDavisHoops · 7m7 minutes ago

Down to my last crunch! 7 teams for 2 spots: Syracuse, Tulsa, Valpo, Monmouth, Wich St, Vandy, St. Mary's. SDSU is wild card.

[ShockerPrez]

I dont get imoressed with 'bracketologists' that update their bracket up to the last minute.

Show me the guy that had it pegged before the season, or even a month or 2 ago.

These guys are just pollsters for sports.

[Play Angry]

Seth Davis @SethDavisHoops · 7m7 minutes ago

Down to my last crunch! 7 teams for 2 spots: Syracuse, Tulsa, Valpo, Monmouth, Wich St, Vandy, St. Mary's. SDSU is wild card.

Shocks are in 89 of 103 brackets on BracketMatrix.

Looking way better than 50/50 ;)

[pinstripers]

Shocks are in 89 of 103 brackets on BracketMatrix.

Looking way better than 50/50 ;)

way better than monday

[Shock Top]

Look who is changing his tune:

@SethDavisHoops: Have to say Monmouth's good wins don't look so good. Notre Dame and USC on a neutral court, Gtown and UCLA on the road. 3 200+ losses hurts.

@SethDavisHoops: I'd say Valpo's road win at Oregon St is better than any of Monmouth's wins.

@SethDavisHoops: I put Syracuse in. So my last spot came down to Valpo and Wichita State.....

@SethDavisHoops: My last spot goes to Wichita State. Have better noncon strength of schedule ranking than Valpo, plus 1 loss 100+ compared to 4. Close call.

Thanks Kellen! ;)

[Play Angry]

The last 4 in predictions are basically the coward's way out for last week's biggest naysayers.

We are in and we won't be in Dayton.

[Remember'70]

"My last spot goes to Wichita State. Have better noncon strength of schedule ranking than Valpo, plus 1 loss 100+ compared to 4. Close call."

https://twitter.com/sethdavishoops/status/708676525747539968

Whoops...slow on the trigger

[Heinro]

Seth Davis is an idiot. Our resume is drastically better than Valpo's. Anyway, we aren't anywhere close to his 2 spots for 7 teams territory.

[Dave Stalwart]

I get a kick out of the idea that we may be "last four in" and then an 8 seed. Shouldn't you be an 11-13 seed if you are barely squeaking into the dance with the last open spot?

This year will be fun because we have all been forced to deal with the holes in our team but we do still have the talent to make a great run. In other words, if we have a terrible shooting night and lose 50-51 (because the other team can't score either but it doesn't take much to beat us when we shoot 2-24 from 3) in the first round, I will be able to have seen it coming and it will hurt less now. But I still absolutely believe we have a shot at winning several games. My expectations are definitely lowered but not because I don't think we CAN pull it together...and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see WSU really show up. This will be fun.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I dont get imoressed with 'bracketologists' that update their bracket up to the last minute.

Show me the guy that had it pegged before the season, or even a month or 2 ago.

These guys are just pollsters for sports.

So now you think some smart guy on February 5th should've been able to predict WSU would lose 3 games to UNI/ISU in the following month?

Not going to happen. Once bracketologists start trying to predidict those things, the value of projections would go out the window. No thanks.

As it is, Jerry Palm's outlook on WSU from early February appears to have been right, but of course he wasn't really right. He was too low on WSU and got lucky that WSU lost some games down the stretch to fall into his ranking. Of course, if he really expected those loses, he would have kept WSU in the same spot all the way up to today. What actually happened is is continued to drop WSU and is still too low on them today. He wasn't right then, and he isn't right now.

[Shockers5150]

I'm convinced those clowns were ripping wsu simply to get clicks. Now that is almost go time, what they should have known last week is finally coming out.

[Kung Wu]

From bubble discussion to National Champion contender. It can happen.

[ShockTalk]

Once again, I didn't agonize over choosing the order of teams like St. Bonaventure vs St. Mary's. The following list could probably be tweaked further, but the point is that WSU is in no danger at this point. 100% sure they are in, 80% sure they avoid Tuesday in Dayton, and probably a 50/50 shot of getting into the 8/9 game. Bid thieves are no longer WSU's concern. Teams like St. Bonaventure and Tulsa losing late last night was exactly what the Shox needed to now feel completely safe. Those teams may or may not get in now, and they provide extra cushion for WSU against any possible bid thieves in the next 24 hours. The only tiny danger going into yesterday was for teams like Tulsa to play well, rise above WSU, and then for the Georgia's of the world to steal WSU's bid. Now, I just don't see a scenario, regardless of how poorly the committee might evaluate WSU, where they aren't included.

As of Saturday morning...

Team	Still Playing?	RPI	KenPom	Comments
St. Joe's	Yes	27	45	Probably out of WSU's reach. Root for Dayton to blow them out.
USC	No	51	48	Lock
Oregon St	No	34	60	Lock
WICHITA ST	NO	46	11	LOCK
Cincy	No	47	31	Lock
VCU	Yes	41	34	Probably in, but need to beat Davidson today to be a lock
UConn	Yes	45	29	Probably in, but need to beat Temple today to be a lock
Butler	No	58	39	Just short of lock status
Pitt	No	52	44	Just short of lock status
South Carolina	No	62	51	Probably in
San Diego St	Yes	32	37	Lose today and may still get a bid, but won't be the Shox they steal from. Wife is Fresno St. grad. Go Dogs!
Michigan	Yes	54	50	Lose to Purdue today and they are squarely on the bubble
St. Bonaventure	No	30	79	Squarely on the bubble
St. Mary's	No	37	33	Squarely on the bubble
Vandy	No	63	26	Squarely on the bubble
-------------				-------------
--Cut Line--				--Cut Line--
-------------				-------------
Temple	Yes	59	83	Must beat UConn today or likely headed to NIT
Monmouth	No	53	67	Slim NCAA chances
Syracuse	No	70	41	Slim NCAA chances
Valpo	No	49	36	Very slim NCAA chances
Florida	No	55	43	Very slim NCAA chances
Tulsa	No	61	58	Headed to NIT
George Washington	No	67	78	Headed to NIT
Georgia	Yes	60	65	Must beat Kentucky today or headed to NIT. May need to win tomorrow too.
LSU	Yes	91	76	I almost put LSU in the bid thief group. Must beat Texas A&M today and play a close game tomorrow.

Potential Bid Thieves Without At-Large Hopes
AAC – Memphis, Tulane (These 2 teams play each other today, winner will have to beat UConn/Temple tomorrow)
A10 – Davidson (Would have to beat VCU today, then winner of St. Joes/Dayton tomorrow)
Mountain West – Fresno St (Plays SDSU in the championship game today)

Only 3 conferences left where bid thieves could show up. Doubtful more than 1 actually pulls it off.

So why is South Carolina so much better off than Vandy or Syracuse? Frankly, I'm not sure why any of them would be in over some of the other teams below/around them.