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Originally posted by ShockerFever
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That was pretty remarkable. I can't stand OU in all sports, and even I can't help but like Hield. Such a fun player to watch. -
Makes no sense... It was clearly still on the tips of his fingers... If any thing West Virginia got bailed out, they should have missed the free throw on purpose... Which can be easier said then done lolOriginally posted by ShockerFever View PostComment
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Looks good to me.Originally posted by choida View Post"You Don't Have to Play a Perfect Game. Your Best is Good Enough."Comment
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Agree with you... Let's just get a ticket to the dance and hope you get lucky at the end of the nightOriginally posted by ShockdaWorld View PostComment
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Snooping on other teams' boards and found this thread/spreadsheet interesting.
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Interesting to see what other fans are saying, almost everyone in there has us as one of their top teams. Nice findOriginally posted by ShockerGirl View PostComment
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Thought you guys might like this.....
How it Works
The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and pace-adjusted team and player stats (weighted slightly more toward recent games), to play, one possession at a time, every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NCAA Tournament. Each tournament is played individually, with the team that wins the game in that instance advancing. See the Bracket Odds and Predictalated Bracket.
Tournament Summary
Happy Championship Week!
In a few days the field of 68 will be set and you can begin filling out your bracket. Before that happens, we take one final look at what the men's college basketball tournament could look like through 50,000 simulations of Joe Lunardi's Bracketology.
The cream is rising to the top. In a season that has seen consistent turnover in the standings, the best teams in college basketball are beginning to separate themselves from the pack.
Over the last month, the three most likely champions in our bracket simulations have seen their combined share of tournament win percentages increase steadily.
Top 3 Win% 35.6 37.8 41.9 47.9
Kansas, Michigan State and Virginia, No. 1-3 in our Power Rankings, win nearly 50 percent of all the simulated tournaments. The Jayhawks are the most likely champions with almost a one-in-five chance of cutting down the nets.
Below are a few teams that might surprise and others that might exit the tournament early.
Cinderella's – the most likely double-digit seeds in Sweet 16: No. 10 VCU (26.8%), No. 13 Stephen F. Austin (19.4%), No. 12 Arkansas Little Rock (19.2%), No. 10 Pittsburgh (12.7%), No. 10 USC (12.3%) and No. 11 San Diego State (11.7%).
Sleepers – the most likely 5+ seeds to make Final Four: No. 6 Baylor (13.0%), No. 5 Maryland (7.9%), No. 8 Wichita State (7.4%), No. 5 Iowa State (6.7%) and No. 5 Cal (4.0%)
Busts – the least likely 1-4 seeds to make Elite Eight: No. 4 Texas A&M (19.6%), No. 3 Utah (22.8%), No. 4 Purdue (26.5%), No. 2 Oregon (26.9%) and No. 4 Kentucky (28.9%).
South Region
Most Likely Final Four team: Virginia (42.3%)
Final Four Sleeper: Baylor (13.0%)
Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): VCU (26.8% to make Sweet 16)
Chance NCAA Champion is from Region: 22.8%
First Round Upset: #9 Cincinnati over #8 South Carolina (72.6%)
Closest First Round Game: In addition to the game above, #10 VCU over #7 Notre Dame (73.8%)
West Region
Most Likely Final Four team: West Virginia (31.3%)
Final Four Sleeper: Maryland (7.9%)
Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): Pittsburgh (12.7% to make to Sweet 16)
Chance NCAA Champion is from Region: 20.0%
First Round Upset: #9 Colorado over #8 Providence (59.6%)
Closest First Round Game: In addition to the game above, #7 Seton Hall over #10 Pittsburgh (60.9%)
East Region
Most Likely Final Four team: Michigan State (37.9%)
Final Four Sleeper: California (4.0%)
Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): St. Joe's (8.6% to make Sweet 16)
Chance NCAA Champion is from Region: 30.8%
First Round Upset:#9 Vanderbilt over #8 Saint Mary's (53.1%)
Closest First Round Game: #10 St. Joe's over #7 Texas Tech (53.9%)
Midwest Region
Most Likely Final Four team: Kansas (48.1%)
Final Four Sleeper: Wichita State (7.4%)
Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): Stephen F. Austin (19.4% likely to make Sweet 16)
Chance NCAA Champion is from Region: 26.7%
First Round Upset: None
Closest First Round Game: #7 Dayton over #10 USC (56.0%)Comment
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Friday was a good day for WSU's chances Sunday. according to TR. After yesterday's games they went from a 11 seed with 42% chance to a 10 seed with 56% chance. There are still some ways this could go bad, I'm not convinced S Carolina is out and if LSU and Ga make the SEC finals that could cause a problem. A few interesting games today that could impact WSU
Team Rankings Bubble Teams..........See More »Last edited by WillieJeffJeffries; March 12, 2016, 06:58 AM.Comment
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The Predictalator? LOLOriginally posted by WillieJeffJeffries View Post
That sounds like some 50's or 60's mad cartoon scientist contraption to take over the world."When life hands you lemons, make lemonade." Better have some sugar and water too, or else your lemonade will suck!Comment
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This may be old news but Jerry Palm now has us as 11 seed last four in playing in Dayton. Although Jerry is a flopping a$$ clown, I would love to see this bracket come to fruition. I like my chances with Michigan/Dayton/Miami to start the dance.Comment
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Yeah not the name I would have chosen either but Paul and "prediction machine" is actually quite good and has been around awhile. When WSU made their F4 run they had WSU as the fav vs OSU and only a 2 point dog to L'ville. So I'm happy they give us an outside shot at the F4 this year.Originally posted by ShockerPrez View PostComment
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I hope all you twitterers are ready to flood Jerry on Sunday at about 5:30. Should be a fun show to watch. I'm sure he'll spin it well. You don't have to be douchy or anything, but I think some well-derserved crow will be in order after WSU was definitively NIT bound a short 7 days ago.
There's your 2016 Flip-flopper of the Year Award, Jerry. Congrats.Deuces Valley.
... No really, deuces.
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"Enjoy the ride."
- a smart manComment
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Once again, I didn't agonize over choosing the order of teams like St. Bonaventure vs St. Mary's. The following list could probably be tweaked further, but the point is that WSU is in no danger at this point. 100% sure they are in, 80% sure they avoid Tuesday in Dayton, and probably a 50/50 shot of getting into the 8/9 game. Bid thieves are no longer WSU's concern. Teams like St. Bonaventure and Tulsa losing late last night was exactly what the Shox needed to now feel completely safe. Those teams may or may not get in now, and they provide extra cushion for WSU against any possible bid thieves in the next 24 hours. The only tiny danger going into yesterday was for teams like Tulsa to play well, rise above WSU, and then for the Georgia's of the world to steal WSU's bid. Now, I just don't see a scenario, regardless of how poorly the committee might evaluate WSU, where they aren't included.
As of Saturday morning...
Potential Bid Thieves Without At-Large HopesTeam Still Playing? RPI KenPom Comments St. Joe's Yes 27 45 Probably out of WSU's reach. Root for Dayton to blow them out. USC No 51 48 Lock Oregon St No 34 60 Lock WICHITA ST NO 46 11 LOCK Cincy No 47 31 Lock VCU Yes 41 34 Probably in, but need to beat Davidson today to be a lock UConn Yes 45 29 Probably in, but need to beat Temple today to be a lock Butler No 58 39 Just short of lock status Pitt No 52 44 Just short of lock status South Carolina No 62 51 Probably in San Diego St Yes 32 37 Lose today and may still get a bid, but won't be the Shox they steal from. Wife is Fresno St. grad. Go Dogs! Michigan Yes 54 50 Lose to Purdue today and they are squarely on the bubble St. Bonaventure No 30 79 Squarely on the bubble St. Mary's No 37 33 Squarely on the bubble Vandy No 63 26 Squarely on the bubble ------------- ------------- --Cut Line-- --Cut Line-- ------------- ------------- Temple Yes 59 83 Must beat UConn today or likely headed to NIT Monmouth No 53 67 Slim NCAA chances Syracuse No 70 41 Slim NCAA chances Valpo No 49 36 Very slim NCAA chances Florida No 55 43 Very slim NCAA chances Tulsa No 61 58 Headed to NIT George Washington No 67 78 Headed to NIT Georgia Yes 60 65 Must beat Kentucky today or headed to NIT. May need to win tomorrow too. LSU Yes 91 76 I almost put LSU in the bid thief group. Must beat Texas A&M today and play a close game tomorrow.
AAC – Memphis, Tulane (These 2 teams play each other today, winner will have to beat UConn/Temple tomorrow)
A10 – Davidson (Would have to beat VCU today, then winner of St. Joes/Dayton tomorrow)
Mountain West – Fresno St (Plays SDSU in the championship game today)
Only 3 conferences left where bid thieves could show up. Doubtful more than 1 actually pulls it off.Last edited by Jamar Howard 4 President; March 12, 2016, 10:01 AM.Comment
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No. I will be extremely disappointed if WSU has to beat a fellow 11 seed just to earn the right to play a 6 seed. I'm expecting WSU to be a 9 or 10 and to be watching Tuesday's games on TV.Originally posted by bleednblackngold View PostComment
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