2016 Bracketology

[SB Shock]

With the way the committee seeds I honestly would not be shocked to see us seeded 9+... Last year we had the #15 (UNI) and #66 (ISUr) RPI teams in the valley to add to our resume and still got a 7 seed. Right now Evansville is #77 and I don't think any of us would be shocked to see them slip down a little more before the season is up.

I listened to the CBS podcast, and I can understand how WSU could be under-seeded. With their 1-3 Top 50 and 2-2 Top 100 record,

But then I see projection showing:

No. 3 Maryland: 1-3 Top 50
No. 4 Providence: 2-3 Top 50
No. 5 Baylor: 2-5 Top 50

Is WSU resume that much worse? I guess it would help if Evansville, UNLV and Nevada could break into the top 100.

[Blackmag]

I think the pundits are really over-looking all the details to our early season problems. They try to make it seem like we were just without Fred and that was the only reason we lost some close games to some really good teams. With Fred being healthy we beat USC and Alabama, no question. But we also didn't have Landry Shamet and Conner Frankamp, that's a lot of talent not to have. Three of your best ball handlers and scoring off the bench. Iowa would be a lot different game with the team we have now. Hopefully the committee will not just look at just Fred being out, but the other key pieces we were missing. If we win out in league play and get to the championship game in St.Louis I think we can get anywhere from a 5 to 7. I think with what we've done in the past 3 years will or should have a bearing, since we have one of the top back-courts in the nation and have quality depth.

[WSUwatcher]

The pundits can say whatever they want, but I'm not worried. This is one time I think Lunardi is closer than most, and I expect WSU to move higher in his bracket before the end of the season.

Personally, though, I'd be quite happy to see the Shocks end up at #6 and have a chance to postpone facing the top seed until the regional championship game, assuming they last that long (the #1, that is, not the Shocks). You don't want to be standing between LeFred + Ron and a trip to Houston.

[choida]

Just read this from another site. "Wichita State will effectively clinch the Missouri Valley if they beat Southern Illinois at home on Wednesday, a game in which they'll be a double-digit favorite in Vegas. But despite how well they've been playing, and how strong their computer numbers are, they still have just a single RPI Top 50 victory (Utah). As long as they go 16-2 or better in conference play, they should be in good shape on Selection Sunday, but they're still far from a sure thing. Assuming they get into the NCAA Tournament, however, they're going to be one of the scariest 7/8/9 seeds the Tournament has ever seen."

Ironic because Kentucky in 2014 was one of the scariest 8 seeds ever with all that talent they had but never lived up to it until the end of the year.

You guys had injuries preventing you from living up to your expectations to start the year.

How can you be ranked and not a sure thing come selection Sunday...

[AndShock]

How can you be ranked and not a sure thing come selection Sunday...

Utah State '04

[Jhook89]

Haha, stop. Haha.

Lol I'm just saying man. Would not be shocked at all to see us seeded that high. I think we will wind up in the 6-8 range though. Murray State last year went 16-0 in their conference and didn't even make the big dance because they lost in the Chanpionship of their conference tournament. It's not a direct comparison, but obviously the committee doesn't put too much stock in beating up on lesser opponents.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Lol I'm just saying man. Would not be shocked at all to see us seeded that high. I think we will wind up in the 6-8 range though. Murray State last year went 16-0 in their conference and didn't even make the big dance because they lost in the Chanpionship of their conference tournament. It's not a direct comparison, but obviously the committee doesn't put too much stock in beating up on lesser opponents.

Murray St went 16-0 in 16 games against teams that didn't even sniff the NIT. Murray St was 51 in KenPom and had 3 bad losses. A home win over NIT bound Illinois State in the non-conf was their best win of the season. They had chances against Xavier and Valpo and not only lost, but got smoked.

There is a huge difference between the level of opponents WSU is beating up on and the level of opponents Murray St was stomping. I wouldn't have been upset had Murray St been let in, but they were far from an obvious choice for inclusion in the field.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I listened to the CBS podcast, and I can understand how WSU could be under-seeded. With their 1-3 Top 50 and 2-2 Top 100 record,

But then I see projection showing:

No. 3 Maryland: 1-3 Top 50
No. 4 Providence: 2-3 Top 50
No. 5 Baylor: 2-5 Top 50

Is WSU resume that much worse? I guess it would help if Evansville, UNLV and Nevada could break into the top 100.

Regarding Maryland, to be fair to them, their 1 top 50 win? Iowa.
Average KenPom of the 3 "top 50 losses"? 14, and all 3 were true road games.
Total top 100 wins? 10
KenPom rank? 9, due to plenty of blowouts, including some blowouts of decent teams.

You just can't focus on a single stat line such as "vs top 50" and draw conclusions. Too little info. Maryland as a 3 seed is far from being overrated at this point.

[ShockerFever]

Murray St went 16-0 in 16 games against teams that didn't even sniff the NIT. Murray St was 51 in KenPom and had 3 bad losses. A home win over NIT bound Illinois State in the non-conf was their best win of the season. They had chances against Xavier and Valpo and not only lost, but got smoked.

There is a huge difference between the level of opponents WSU is beating up on and the level of opponents Murray St was stomping. I wouldn't have been upset had Murray St been let in, but they were far from an obvious choice for inclusion in the field.

Don't let this go to your head but thank you.

[Play Angry]

The end is nigh :)

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

A lower seed would just add further motivation for these guys and Marshall.

I think it is an insult to Fred and Ron and Gregg to imply that they will be anything short of max motivation this go around. I just don't see Fred driving to the basket against Duke, or UNC, or KU, or Kentucky, or OU, or anyone else and thinking "grrrr, I'll show you how underseeded we were".

Bulletin board material might add focus to a game vs Illinois State, but come the Big Dance, the Shox won't need any additional help.

[_kai_]

Don't let this go to your head but thank you.

[Cdizzle]

I think it is an insult to Fred and Ron and Gregg to imply that they will be anything short of max motivation this go around. I just don't see Fred driving to the basket against Duke, or UNC, or KU, or Kentucky, or OU, or anyone else and thinking "grrrr, I'll show you how underseeded we were".

Bulletin board material might add focus to a game vs Illinois State, but come the Big Dance, the Shox won't need any additional help.

Maybe not when we're only up by 8 in the first half. But when we're up by 22 with 8 to go, it can be nice to have a reason to stick it to them some more.

[DUShock]

A story off Yahoo Sports about seeding the Shocks.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/blogs/ncaab-the-dagger/seeding-wichita-state-may-be-tricky-for-the-committee-next-month-185145839.html

Summary, the committee should take the early season injuries into account when seeding the Shocks.

[Jhook89]

Murray St went 16-0 in 16 games against teams that didn't even sniff the NIT. Murray St was 51 in KenPom and had 3 bad losses. A home win over NIT bound Illinois State in the non-conf was their best win of the season. They had chances against Xavier and Valpo and not only lost, but got smoked.

There is a huge difference between the level of opponents WSU is beating up on and the level of opponents Murray St was stomping. I wouldn't have been upset had Murray St been let in, but they were far from an obvious choice for inclusion in the field.

That's why I said it wasn't a direct comparison. Obviously the MVC is stronger than the OVC. My point was more that the committee does seem to put quite a bit of weight on the quality of the victories.