2016 Bracketology

[WUpigsooie]

I would assume it indirectly works itself into KP's "luck" variable.

The way I understood it, KP does not take injuries into account. The Luck statistic is a product of expected win % - actual win %. Meaning if you are very efficient but have a mediocre record you will have a low (negative) luck rating.

Generally a bad luck team will have played a fair number of close games and lost most if not all of them, and won a fair amount of games in blowouts. Much like our shox.

[wsushox1]

I'm not so sure Palm is that far off here though.

[Jhook89]

I feel people are getting caught up on our Ken Pom ranking. Yes that's looked at, but that's towards the bottom as far as importance... It'll definitely help us, but it's not like the committee is going to be like, "Hey look! They have a really good Ken Pom ranking. Let's ignore all the other factors and base the seeding almost solely on that."

[ShoxRoxMySox]

Good, put a chip on these seniors' shoulder. I was hoping to make multiple pods this March anyway.

[ShockdaWorld]

I feel people are getting caught up on our Ken Pom ranking. Yes that's looked at, but that's towards the bottom as far as importance... It'll definitely help us, but it's not like the committee is going to be like, "Hey look! They have a really good Ken Pom ranking. Let's ignore all the other factors and base the seeding almost solely on that."

All of the analytics favor the Shockers, not just the KenPom.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I feel people are getting caught up on our Ken Pom ranking. Yes that's looked at, but that's towards the bottom as far as importance... It'll definitely help us, but it's not like the committee is going to be like, "Hey look! They have a really good Ken Pom ranking. Let's ignore all the other factors and base the seeding almost solely on that."

Nobody is arguing WSU should be a 2-3 seed. We are arguing that a RPI around 40, with a KenPom of 8, is a no brainer to be included in a tournament where the cut line will fall around #46. No matter whether you give the RPI and KenPom a 50/50 split of importance, or whether you go 90/10, you can't justify a final rank outside the top 40 using those two metrics.

[Stickboy46]

Nobody is arguing WSU should be a 2-3 seed. We are arguing that a RPI around 40, with a KenPom of 8, is a no brainer to be included in a tournament where the cut line will fall around #46. No matter whether you give the RPI and KenPom a 50/50 split of importance, or whether you go 90/10, you can't justify a final rank outside the top 40 using those two metrics.

And Sagarin, BPI, NPI, Massey Composite all have WSU between 10 and 25. RPI is the clear outlier.

[WuShock16]

Palm still is discounting us for not having quality wins. Let me give this scenario.

Let's say that WSU won at Tulsa and would have gone 2-1 games in Orlando. That would have meant beating USC, losing to Xavier, and beating Monmouth. That would have added three pretty good wins. However, let's also consider three losses at St. Louis, Indiana State, and Southern Illinois. Those would have been three bad/HORRIBLE losses. We still would have the same record...just with three decent wins and three bad/HORRIBLE losses. Would people like Jerry Palm give us the benefit of the doubt because of those good wins? HELL NO. You know that we would be dogged for those slip-ups.

Okay, hang with me here. Here's why I bring that up proposed scenario. Look at South Carolina's resume. If you play out the above situation for WSU, you'd get a similar scenario to how South Carolina has played out its season. South Carolina probably has three more decent/good wins than WSU does, but the Gamecocks also have three more bad losses (at Tennessee, at Mississippi State, at Missouri).

So that brings the question: what is more significant: having good wins or having bad losses? You can't get as many good wins if the games aren't on your schedule, but if you are a good team, you certainly can avoid bad losses. Why isn't South Carolina getting crucified for those bad losses?

[pie n eye]

I can't wait until selection Sunday so bracketology can go away.

[pinstripers]

I cannot imagine a bigger waste of time than this thread.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Why isn't South Carolina getting crucified for those bad losses?

Bracket matrix...
South Carolina - Average seed = 8.72
Wichita State - Average seed = 8.90

Jerry Palm is an outlier. General consensus is that South Carolina and WSU are looking at very similar seeding.

[ShockerFever]

I'm not so sure Palm is that far off here though.

Not surprised.

[ShockerFever]

I cannot imagine a bigger waste of time than this thread.

And yet you continually post in it.

[AZ Shocker]

Waaaaaay to many metrics the past 5-10-15 years. Eye test people...eye test. Jamar for President has no doubt more and better analytical spread sheets than this Palm guy and probably 90% of national writers. Jamar...throw in your resume and go work at ESPN will ya! Crymes...some of these so-called experts can suck it.

[Shockers5150]

Hefferman just gave WSU the extra boost they need by jobbing HCGM out of COY. Shox will win all 3 games by 15+, maybe 20. I personally can't wait.