2016 Bracketology

[ShockerFever]

Well, Jerry Palms goes nutbar again. The guy is bad, so bad. He has WSU as a 12 seed and getting the auto. He doesn't even have them within at-large range. Does Jerry Palm say **** it to the NCAA and not consider injuries?

There's so many weird picks it's hard to know where to start. Jamar, can you defend a bracket like this? I'd genuinely like to hear what you have to say about his WSU logic and say South Carolina for example. On what planet is South Carolina a 5 seed given their resume? Is it because they have 1 loss and are in the SEC? They've played ONE Top 50 team. ONE. And they lost it. To Alabama. Badly. In a game they were forced to play (conference). Their SOS is 164. Their non con SOS is 248. How are they a 5 seed? Please enlighten me.

[ShockdaWorld]

Well, Jerry Palms goes nutbar again. The guy is bad, so bad. He has WSU as a 12 seed and getting the auto. He doesn't even have them within at-large range. Does Jerry Palm say **** it to the NCAA and not consider injuries?

There's so many weird picks it's hard to know where to start. Jamar, can you defend a bracket like this? I'd genuinely like to hear what yo have to say about his WSU logic and say South Carolina for example. On what planet is South Carolina a 5 seed given their resume. Is it because they have 1 loss and are in the SEC? They've played ONE Top 50 team. ONE. And they lost it. To Alabama. Badly. In a game they were forced to play (conference). Their SOS is 164. Their non con SOS is 248. How are they a 5 seed? Please enlighten me.

Jerry Palm is about as useful as one of the little brown piles my dog leaves in the yard every morning.

[Stickboy46]

Well, Jerry Palms goes nutbar again. The guy is bad, so bad. He has WSU as a 12 seed and getting the auto. He doesn't even have them within at-large range. Does Jerry Palm say **** it to the NCAA and not consider injuries?

There's so many weird picks it's hard to know where to start. Jamar, can you defend a bracket like this? I'd genuinely like to hear what you have to say about his WSU logic and say South Carolina for example. On what planet is South Carolina a 5 seed given their resume? Is it because they have 1 loss and are in the SEC? They've played ONE Top 50 team. ONE. And they lost it. To Alabama. Badly. In a game they were forced to play (conference). Their SOS is 164. Their non con SOS is 248. How are they a 5 seed? Please enlighten me.

We were an 11 seed last week according to him. So with 2 wins by an average of 18 points along with a lot of good games by teams we've played, we managed to drop a seed line

[ShockerPrez]

Jerry Palm is about as useful as one of the little brown piles my dog leaves in the yard every morning.

Palms that have been more useful than Jerry Palm

1. Hairy Palms
2. Palm readers
3. Palm palms (shut up, I know)

Etc.

[Shocker-maniac]

Palms that have been more useful than Jerry Palm

1. Hairy Palms
2. Palm readers
3. Palm palms (shut up, I know)

Etc.

Palm oil
Palmolive

[WillieJeffJeffries]

Please identify the two games you guarantee the Shockers will lose and the one you think is likely. Another poster offered 7 losses but he has already been proven wrong on his prediction.

I think they lose @ Eville and one other road game. WSU has sent some very good teams to St Louis and went 3-0 there only once. Odds are they will not win the MVC tourney......= 3 more loss....

[Shocker1976]

I think they lose @ Eville and one other road game. WSU has sent some very good teams to St Louis and went 3-0 there only once. Odds are they will not win the MVC tourney......= 3 more loss....

IMO the @EU game is the biggest risk the Shockers face regards running the table but I am not prepared to call it a win for the Aces. Another road loss is possible but if it does not happen in Cedar Falls, then such an event becomes IMO very unlikely.

I agree that the Shockers could lose in the MVC tourney but IMO this year's Shockers will be entirely focused on winning the damn thing!

[molly jabali]

There are several occupations/people in them that I'm always amazed keep being even mildly relevant...bracketologist and Jerry Palm are my #1 evidence.

[shockmonster]

I think they lose @ Eville and one other road game. WSU has sent some very good teams to St Louis and went 3-0 there only once. Odds are they will not win the MVC tourney......= 3 more loss....

This is why I never make predictions on my Shockers. Anyone with brains acknowledges that ODDS are against the Shocks going the rest of the way without some losses (2-3 are about right). Why would I want even a small part of me ok with a loss. But I'm more than a casual fan. Since I was a kid, I've always wanted them to win in the worst way. Not everyone is a fan in that way. But the other way is always predicting a win which defies logic. Therefore, I don't predict. Willie sounds more like a casual fan. Welcome aboard.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Please identify the two games you guarantee the Shockers will lose and the one you think is likely. Another poster offered 7 losses but he has already been proven wrong on his prediction.

I think it is important to note that the Shockers will likely be favored in every game the rest of the regular season, yet it is also true that they have a less than 50% chance of going undefeated.

90% chance of winning each game, taken over 10 games, leads to only a 1-in-3 chance of winning all 10. (0.9^10=0.35) This is an easy concept to overlook.

I expect WSU to lose 2 games the rest of the way. I just have no idea which 2.

[Stickboy46]

Here's a head scratcher ...

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/mens-basketball/bracketology

Evansville in as a 12 seed .... WSU ... Not in the the projection.

Seems odd to include the ~80 RPI team and not the ~40 RPI team that already beat the ~80 RPI team.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

There's so many weird picks it's hard to know where to start. Jamar, can you defend a bracket like this? I'd genuinely like to hear what you have to say about his WSU logic and say South Carolina for example.

Short answer... Jerry Palm is terrible at bracketology. I usually just ignore him.

Regarding South Carolina, I'll just say that if you take away your BCS hatred for a second and imagine WSU with that resume, I can guarantee you would be arguing they should be a single digit seed. I agree that they have a poor sample with so few really quality opponents. Thankfully that will change over the next 2 months. Still, at this point, I can't criticize anyone putting South Carolina somewhere between 5 and 10. I think Palm is a little high, but there is something to be said for going out each night and winning. No elite wins, but a handful of top 100 wins need to be worth something. The one big loss to Alabama is the reason I would say Palm is a bit high, but not unreasonably so.

Regarding WSU, you and I, as die hard fans, are both convinced that this is a top 20 Shocker team that just needs a chance to prove it now that they are healthy. However, if you look at the resume, there isn't a whole lot there. Orlando can be mostly written off, but Tulsa hurts a little (should have won that even without Fred at 100%) and Seton Hall was a huge missed opportunity to prove that November was a fluke. The wins, at home, over UNLV and Utah no longer look any better than the wins Alabama has. I disagree that WSU should be a 12 seed right now, but I don't think it is outside the realm of reasonable thought. Probably right at the edge of reasonable vs crazy. Now if WSU keeps winning and Palm doesn't start moving WSU up significantly, then I'll agree that Palm is back to being crazy like he often is.

[shockmonster]

At least some of the committee will likely compute the Shockers RPI without Orlando (if they want a true reading w/o FVV, they would do it and leave Tulsa out but they probably don't know those circumstances. Anyway the compute w/o Orlando and then with Orlando and split the difference. So what is our RPI with these parameters?

[Stickboy46]

At least some of the committee will likely compute the Shockers RPI without Orlando (if they want a true reading w/o FVV, they would do it and leave Tulsa out but they probably don't know those circumstances. Anyway the compute w/o Orlando and then with Orlando and split the difference. So what is our RPI with these parameters?

Using RPIForecast, it takes our project RPI from 40 to 24. That's only pulling out Orlando.

[RoyalShock]

At least some of the committee will likely compute the Shockers RPI without Orlando (if they want a true reading w/o FVV, they would do it and leave Tulsa out but they probably don't know those circumstances. Anyway the compute w/o Orlando and then with Orlando and split the difference. So what is our RPI with these parameters?

Time for the annual "how the selection committee uses the RPI" tutorial.

WSU's RPI doesn't matter to the committee, except when discussing whether we are a good win/bad loss for another team. Could the committee look at our RPI without those games, when discussion those other teams? Sure, but I doubt they would go to the trouble unless it becomes a deciding factor.

Also, in regard to the committee discarding the games without Fred, my understanding (based on interviews with committee members and media who have been part of the mock selection process) is that only comes into play during discussion of seeding, NOT whether we are worthy of a bid. Bid-worthiness is based on the total resume, injuries or not. So, the Shocks needs to make sure they are not on the bubble.