Wichita State media love thread

[kcshocker11]

Bo Ryan?

lol

[RussDaBus]

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/draft/fullnbamockdraft-GaryParrish

Early and Baker among the top 60.

[HarpBros]

Latest Kenpom blog "The paths to still being unbeaten"

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/the_paths_to_still_being_unbeaten

Wichita State (17-0)Minimum win probability this season: 7.1%, 72-69 (OT) victory over Missouri State (trailed 54-35, 11:48 2nd half)
Game with largest percentage of high-leverage game time: 70-65 victory over Saint Louis (1,568 seconds of 2,400 total seconds; 65.3%)Wichita State appears to be the outlier of the group, as more than 20 percent of its game time has been played at high-leverage. That’s not to say the Shockers should have lost by now: it’s just they’ve played in games where outcomes are more frequently in doubt. This also obviously doesn’t mean Wichita State won’t be the last unbeaten team to lose; because of their remaining schedule Ken’s system still gives them by far the best chance of going unblemished (13.7 percent). But it does provide insight into how many tight situations they’ve been in and gives us reason to believe that come NCAA tournament time they will have the toughest time of winning six in a row.

Note:
-We do not have win probability graphs for Wichita State’s victories over Western Kentucky and Southern Illinois. The Shockers won both games comfortably and thus they are not quite as far behind the other three as the data above shows.

[Shoxfan11]

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web...being_unbeaten


Wichita State (17-0)Minimum win probability this season: 7.1%, 72-69 (OT) victory over Missouri State (trailed 54-35, 11:48 2nd half)
Game with largest percentage of high-leverage game time: 70-65 victory over Saint Louis (1,568 seconds of 2,400 total seconds; 65.3%)Wichita State appears to be the outlier of the group, as more than 20 percent of its game time has been played at high-leverage. That’s not to say the Shockers should have lost by now: it’s just they’ve played in games where outcomes are more frequently in doubt. This also obviously doesn’t mean Wichita State won’t be the last unbeaten team to lose; because of their remaining schedule Ken’s system still gives them by far the best chance of going unblemished (13.7 percent). But it does provide insight into how many tight situations they’ve been in and gives us reason to believe that come NCAA tournament time they will have the toughest time of winning six in a row.Note:
-We do not have win probability graphs for Wichita State’s victories over Western Kentucky and Southern Illinois. The Shockers won both games comfortably and thus they are not quite as far behind the other three as the data above shows.

I don't have all the data in front of me and I'm most likely not as smart a man as Mr. Pomeroy, but I do feel that having a lot of tight situations can be a blessing in disguise. Fighting through adversity through the season can only help the team. The Shox won a game where the other team was shooting absolutely lights out in an extremely hostile environment. That certainly can't hurt.

Anything can happen once you're in the Big Dance. The 11-12 WSU team that handled the Valley with ease (16-2, one of those losses being in triple overtime) fell in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. They were completely thrown off their game and it showed big time IMO. Meanwhile, the 12-13 WSU team that struggled a lot in the Valley (12-6) made a Final Four. This was the team that lost a few games they simply shouldn't have and battled through injuries all year, yet this seemed to make them that much stronger at the end. They were able to battle through a lot of situations that favored the other team in the Big Dance. Some adversity isn't always a bad thing.

Now, these close games being good for the hearts of Shocker fans is another matter...

[Cdizzle]

"Note:
-We do not have win probability graphs for Wichita State’s victories over Western Kentucky and Southern Illinois. The Shockers won both games comfortably and thus they are not quite as far behind the other three as the data above shows."

I like KenPom, but this oddity makes his comparisons pretty useless at this point.

[1972Shocker]

The thing that excites me about this team is that I don't think the Shocks have reached their full potential yet. Still room for some improvement. Hopefully, by the time Arch Madness rolls around we will be clicking on all cylinders. Still what makes this team tough has as much to do with their determination and their will to win as it does with talent, although we have a good abundance of the latter. However, we have an unusual mix of grit and talent that often eludes the teams with the high profile players. So let's get in the flo' and make it 18 & 0.

[pogo]

I would think that if we have had tough games and situations and have prevailed that that will stand us in good stead come tournament time. Our guys will have been through tough times and KNOW they can win. What happens when one of these other teams gets hit in the mouth? How will they react? I like it just the way it is for WSU.

[AndShock]

KenPom is strictly a numbers guy. He views the close games as us getting lucky, winning games we maybe shouldn't have. Since we've won a few close games, that means statistically, we should lose some close games. Wichita State's toughness and resolve doesn't show up statistics.

[MadaboutWu]

I don't have all the data in front of me and I'm most likely not as smart a man as Mr. Pomeroy, but I do feel that having a lot of tight situations can be a blessing in disguise. Fighting through adversity through the season can only help the team. The Shox won a game where the other team was shooting absolutely lights out in an extremely hostile environment. That certainly can't hurt.

Pomeroy would not necessarily disagree. His point is that in close games (or close situations in which the final does not end up close) is that a lot of chance is involved (like the block-charge call which even if correct could easily have been reversed). So as a prediction tool, our close wins look less favorable than bigger wins. I find it hard to disagree with the logic even if it might slightly underestimate the intangible ability to win close ones. I'm sure historical data bears out that winning lots of close games translates into more losses down the road than winning lots of blowouts. It doesn't mean you don't gain experience by toughing out a close one.

KenPom is strictly a numbers guy. He views the close games as us getting lucky, winning games we maybe shouldn't have. Since we've won a few close games, that means statistically, we should lose some close games. Wichita State's toughness and resolve doesn't show up statistics.

I partly agree but it also isn't quite a matter of "getting lucky" or winning what we shouldn't. It is probabilistic; it assigns a percentage chance to winning and losing. So if you win a game you are a 60-40 dog, it doesn't mean you won one you should have lost, but if the model is right you will only replicate that result 40 out of a hundred times. Also toughness and resolve are reflected in the outcomes of our games so the model does incorporate them to some extent. It also reflects whatever intangibles lead to us to have a tendency sometimes to dig a whole in the first half.

[Anthroshock]

"Note:
-We do not have win probability graphs for Wichita State’s victories over Western Kentucky and Southern Illinois. The Shockers won both games comfortably and thus they are not quite as far behind the other three as the data above shows."

I like KenPom, but this oddity makes his comparisons pretty useless at this point.

Yeah, this is frustrating. A nice tiny note at the bottom of the page saying "Nevermind, we don't have two of their best games sooo..."

If the MoSt game is removed I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers are even closer.

[Shockeriffic]

"Now, I’m not directly addressing strength of schedule in these observations. Arizona could have had slightly fewer high-leverage possessions than Wisconsin in part because the Wildcats have the 59th strongest SOS and the Badgers have the 27th strongest. However, because Ken’s win probability system calibrates well for team strength, the SOS is partly baked into the initial and in-game win probabilities."

That would make strength of schedule play an even bigger role in the numbers. Why does Wisconsin's 4 point win over Iowa have more leverage time than their 3 point win over Green Bay? It's partially because Iowa jumped out to a 10 point lead early but mostly because Iowa is ranked higher than Green Bay. He has Syracuse's non conference strength of schedule at 220. It's really hard to have high leverage basketball when you start out with a win probability of 97%.

[ShockerFever]

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/draft/f...ft-GaryParrish

Early and Baker among the top 60.

But yet, according to him, they still only play on the 13th best team in the nation.

[jocoshock]

But yet, according to him, they still only play on the 13th best team in the nation.

Wolves don't lose sleep on the opinions of sheep. #ChadrackLufile

[ShockerFever]

Wolves don't lose sleep on the opinions of sheep. #ChadrackLufile

I'm not losing sleep. I'm just pointing out a hypocritical tidbit.


No need to get bent out of shape again.

[ShockerPrez]

I think I just heard swartz say that marshall will be on the border patrol on 810 KC tomorrow.