Bracketology

[Shockeriffic]

Middle Tennessee is not out based on the fact that they play in a small conference. They will be out based on the fact they got their high RPI/Kenpom numbers ala Missouri State Style. No real quality (0-2 vs 1-25, 0-0 vs 26-50, 2-1 vs 51-100). That's 2-3 vs top 100. vs 100+ they are 26-2.

In a way they are out because they play in a small conference. Their non-con schedule had good games against Florida, Akron, Belmont and Ole Miss. Since their conference schedule had no good games then they had to win at least two of those and sweep their conference to get in. This is the type of team that kenpom has a tendency to overrate. Blowing out 150+ teams doesn't guarantee the ability to beat top 50 teams but that's all the data he has to go on.

[SubGod22]

I'm not worried. We were in before the MVC and we're in now. Seeding is the only thing being debated. I think we'll get a 10, but possibly a 9. I think we're better than that but we had some bad spots that hurt us.

The committee doesn't look at how you finished as closely as they used to, and it's only the last 10 anyway in which we're 7-3. So that wouldn't hurt us. They have sometimes taken into account missing players/starters when it comes to seeding. Perhaps the return of Ron Baker moves us up a spot or two. However, considering most in the national media forgot about him, maybe they won't consider him. But the MVC showed how important he is to this team and if we'd had him all year, we're not anywhere close to where we are now. I'm talking MVC champs, maybe tourney champs and a 6 seed at the worst.

[fansince80s]

Joe has us #11 vs butler today

[SubGod22]

What do any of the good bracketologists say?

[ABC]

Lunardi seems to have a decent track record or ESPN wouldn't keep him on. I don't quite understand the dislike of Lunardi. He states what he thinks the committee will do, not who he thinks should be in the tourney or seeded in a certain way.

He has WSU as an #11 seed but solidly in. A 10/11 seed seems reasonable to me.

[SubGod22]

Results have shown Lunardi to be average at best when it comes to this.

[shock-it-to-me]

I just want to get a BCS school the first round. I really don't want to see the Butler, VCU,or George Mason types in the first round.

[ABC]

The point is that he isn't mad at WSU. And average among all of the folks that do this probably isn't too bad since the endeavor would self-select experts. And having WSU at an #11 isn't much different than the avg of 10.12 on the Bracket Matrix: http://bracketmatrix.com/

I didn't realize how many bracketologists there are out there. Here's a ranking of them: http://bracketproject.50webs.com/rankings.html

[1979Shocker]

I believe coach Marshall said he just wants to play a normal team in the tourney, not a gimmicky (I think that's the word he used) team like VCU. He said something like let the Shockers be the gimmicky team.

[MadDog]

I'd be quite happy to play Butler. Didn't VCU just beat them by about 30 last week? I don't have their stats, but it seems like they are stumbling toward the finish. I'd bet they are probably no better than 5-5 over their last 10 games....

[fansince80s]

So if wsu is on track for a 10 and Ku a 2 why not put them
Both in kc?

[shoxlax]

Why does every bracket I see have us matched up against another non BCS school? Butler, UNLV, Colorado State.

I know I am irritable but jeezus.

[shoxlax]

Lunardi seems to have a decent track record or ESPN wouldn't keep him on. I don't quite understand the dislike of Lunardi. He states what he thinks the committee will do, not who he thinks should be in the tourney or seeded in a certain way.

He has WSU as an #11 seed but solidly in. A 10/11 seed seems reasonable to me.

My problem is we seemed to get worse with him even after a pretty good weekend.

[Shockeriffic]

Easiest Bubble Solver (kenpom and RPI combined into one rating) numbers. WSU moved up one spot to 34. Possible opponents like UCLA (35) and Butler (36) are rated right below WSU. Typical last 4 in teams are Kentucky (43), Boise St (41), Virginia (46), La Salle (48), Temple (54) and Villanova (50). Middle Tennessee is patient zero for this approach. Their ranking is 31 but they don't have any good wins.

A lot would have to go wrong for WSU not to make the tournament. I've seen Illinois St go from last four in to first four out after a week of not playing. I don't think I've seen a team drop down as far as we would have to after a week of not playing.

[GoShockers89]

We are #42 on Lunardi's S-Curve this morning. We were #41 the day before the MVC Tournament started.

Our two wins there were against teams that did nothing to enhance our profile, so it makes some sense. What was most important is that we didn't hurt ourselves by dropping another turd against a weak team.

I do think we should be ahead of #41 Villanova and #40 Cincy though.