Bracketology

[kstarheel]

This team CAN be really good... problem is, other than a couple of games, they just can't seem to throw the knock out punch in a tight contest. Lots of heart and talent but I really don't see the Shox getting out of the first round again. Praying I'm wrong. Sunday was brutal; they are just never going to win that freaking tournament again.

[jocoshock]

This team CAN be really good... problem is, other than a couple of games, they just can't seem to throw the knock out punch in a tight contest. Lots of heart and talent but I really don't see the Shox getting out of the first round again. Praying I'm wrong. Sunday was brutal; they are just never going to win that freaking tournament again.

[rialaigh]

I'm just going to be really pissed sunday when we end up playing a damn good non BCS school in the first round with potential to play another damn good non BCS school in the second round....man I am going to be pissed

[CBB_Fan]

Sunday was brutal; they are just never going to win that freaking tournament again.

How about this for a prediction: We are going to break the tournament drought NEXT YEAR!
And a followup: We will REPEAT!

I don't see a team in the MVC stepping up much, and I think we'll be better. Remove Creighton (or get rid of McDermott), and we are the prohibitive favorites.

[60Shock]

Doesn't matter if we are or are not. It only matters that the other teams are not paying attention.....:cool-new:

So are you implying that whatever teams or teams we will play in the tournament will not have scouted us and perhaps might not even even find out that we were rated in the top 25 for extended periods and were even rated as high as #14?

This information gap might have been the case decades ago, but not today. And you can bet every team we will play will be quite aware of our problems with the zone.

I seriously doubt that we are going to surprise anyone and more importantly, I am sure hope our coaching staff will likewise not be overlooking anyone either.

[RomeoCrennel's Belly]

I really feel like this year more than any other year in recent memory, anybody from a 1 seed to a 12 seed could win the National Championship. We have good balance, coaching, and a will to win. I really hope we get a middle of the road BCS team in the first round. Someone like a Minnesota. I'd much rather play a team like that than a good non-BCS team like Colorado State or some such.

[ShockerPrez]

I dont care who we play. Just want to play a game that isnt against the Valley.

[DwShock]

You have to beat the best to be the best. Get in is our first goal. Then play whomever we get and don't cry about it like cu did last year and like we did last year. Just WIN!

[CBB_Fan]

So are you implying that whatever teams or teams we will play in the tournament will not have scouted us and perhaps might not even even find out that we were rated in the top 25 for extended periods and were even rated as high as #14?

This information gap might have been the case decades ago, but not today. And you can bet every team we will play will be quite aware of our problems with the zone.

I seriously doubt that we are going to surprise anyone and more importantly, I am sure hope our coaching staff will likewise not be overlooking anyone either.

I'd imagine a condensed version of the scouting report on us will look something like this:

Personnel:
Major Minutes: Malcolm Armstead, Demetric Williams, Tekele Cotton, Cleanthony Early, Carl Hall, Fred Van Vleet
Roleplayers: Ron Baker, Nick Wiggins, Jake White, Ehimen Orukpe
Limited: Chadrack Lufile

Player notes:

• Malcolm Armstead: Streaky 3PT shooter (often unassisted), strong on ball defense, lefty, penetrating threat, weak decision maker
• Demetric Williams: Ball-handler and penetration threat, tendency to take bad shots at the end of possessions
• Tekele Cotton: Short SF, athletic, solid 3PT shooter later in the year, primary defensive guard, weak FT shooter
• Cleanthony Early: Weak left hand (will not penetrate with left), catch and shoot 3PT player, keep out of paint and away from the FT line
• Carl Hall: Not a threat from perimeter, dangerous from the short corner, scores mainly by getting offensive rebounds (limit passes inside)
• Fred Van Vleet: Major minutes freshman, crafty but not explosive, decent but not great shooter
• Ehemin Orukpe: Only uses hook-shots and dunks on offense, very effective defensively (less so against jump shooters), bad hands, weak FT shooter
• Jake White: Garbage man, finds holes, strong mid-range shooter, weak 3PT shooter
• Nick Wiggins: Weak defender, keep a defender close to prevent 3s
• Ron Baker: Likely limited endurance, fast shot, good defender

Team Notes:

• 26-8, RPI 39
• Best win streak: 9 games
• Worse loss streak: 3 games
• Play at very slow pace (239th)
• Stronger on defense than offense
• Best aspect: Rebounding (6th in defensive, 20th in offensive)
• Worst aspect: Offensively stagnant
• Common traits in winning opponents: All teams (except SIU) have either a high 3PT% or high FTA/FGA rating, and low TO%
• Common traits in losing opponents: All team were worse rebounding teams, 3 teams focused on steals, height disadvantages

Strategy

• Force them into faster pace, as they normally play slow and their guards make bad decisions
• Keep the middle packed in the halfcourt, prevent Early and Hall from getting touches and Armstead from driving
• Best option is to get Williams to shoot from 3
• Don't allow Wiggins to shoot uncontested shots (keep a man on him)
• If you have to foul, make sure you foul Cotton or Orukpe and not Early
• Only Armstead shoots non-assisted threes well, so give up some penetration (less help) to prevent kickouts
• Attack their on-ball defenders; they give up a lot of fouls and free-throws

Basically, I'm sure whoever we play will have a lot of information. They'll know that 100% of Early's made 3PT shots were assisted (yep 100%). They'll know that Carl Hall and Early don't get a lot of inside passes from our guards. They'll know our shooters, and each players strengths and weaknesses. But they won't necessarily make the current inferences. Detroit didn't. They expected their athleticism and speed to make up for a rebounding disadvantage, and thought a faster paced game would help them. I wouldn't be surprised to see a team make the same mistake.

[WstateU]

I'd imagine a condensed version of the scouting report on us will look something like this:

Personnel:
Major Minutes: Malcolm Armstead, Demetric Williams, Tekele Cotton, Cleanthony Early, Carl Hall, Fred Van Vleet
Roleplayers: Ron Baker, Nick Wiggins, Jake White, Ehimen Orukpe
Limited: Chadrack Lufile

Player notes:

• Malcolm Armstead: Streaky 3PT shooter (often unassisted), strong on ball defense, lefty, penetrating threat, weak decision maker
• Demetric Williams: Ball-handler and penetration threat, tendency to take bad shots at the end of possessions
• Tekele Cotton: Short SF, athletic, solid 3PT shooter later in the year, primary defensive guard, weak FT shooter
• Cleanthony Early: Weak left hand (will not penetrate with left), catch and shoot 3PT player, keep out of paint and away from the FT line
• Carl Hall: Not a threat from perimeter, dangerous from the short corner, scores mainly by getting offensive rebounds (limit passes inside)
• Fred Van Vleet: Major minutes freshman, crafty but not explosive, decent but not great shooter
• Ehemin Orukpe: Only uses hook-shots and dunks on offense, very effective defensively (less so against jump shooters), bad hands, weak FT shooter
• Jake White: Garbage man, finds holes, strong mid-range shooter, weak 3PT shooter
• Nick Wiggins: Weak defender, keep a defender close to prevent 3s
• Ron Baker: Likely limited endurance, fast shot, good defender

Team Notes:

• 26-8, RPI 39
• Best win streak: 9 games
• Worse loss streak: 3 games
• Play at very slow pace (239th)
• Stronger on defense than offense
• Best aspect: Rebounding (6th in defensive, 20th in offensive)
• Worst aspect: Offensively stagnant
• Common traits in winning opponents: All teams (except SIU) have either a high 3PT% or high FTA/FGA rating, and low TO%
• Common traits in losing opponents: All team were worse rebounding teams, 3 teams focused on steals, height disadvantages

Strategy

• Force them into faster pace, as they normally play slow and their guards make bad decisions
• Keep the middle packed in the halfcourt, prevent Early and Hall from getting touches and Armstead from driving
• Best option is to get Williams to shoot from 3
• Don't allow Wiggins to shoot uncontested shots (keep a man on him)
• If you have to foul, make sure you foul Cotton or Orukpe and not Early
• Only Armstead shoots non-assisted threes well, so give up some penetration (less help) to prevent kickouts
• Attack their on-ball defenders; they give up a lot of fouls and free-throws

Basically, I'm sure whoever we play will have a lot of information. They'll know that 100% of Early's made 3PT shots were assisted (yep 100%). They'll know that Carl Hall and Early don't get a lot of inside passes from our guards. They'll know our shooters, and each players strengths and weaknesses. But they won't necessarily make the current inferences. Detroit didn't. They expected their athleticism and speed to make up for a rebounding disadvantage, and thought a faster paced game would help them. I wouldn't be surprised to see a team make the same mistake.

[Steeleshocker]

I'd imagine a condensed version of the scouting report on us will look something like this:

Personnel:
Major Minutes: Malcolm Armstead, Demetric Williams, Tekele Cotton, Cleanthony Early, Carl Hall, Fred Van Vleet
Roleplayers: Ron Baker, Nick Wiggins, Jake White, Ehimen Orukpe
Limited: Chadrack Lufile

Player notes:

• Malcolm Armstead: Streaky 3PT shooter (often unassisted), strong on ball defense, lefty, penetrating threat, weak decision maker
• Demetric Williams: Ball-handler and penetration threat, tendency to take bad shots at the end of possessions
• Tekele Cotton: Short SF, athletic, solid 3PT shooter later in the year, primary defensive guard, weak FT shooter
• Cleanthony Early: Weak left hand (will not penetrate with left), catch and shoot 3PT player, keep out of paint and away from the FT line
• Carl Hall: Not a threat from perimeter, dangerous from the short corner, scores mainly by getting offensive rebounds (limit passes inside)
• Fred Van Vleet: Major minutes freshman, crafty but not explosive, decent but not great shooter
• Ehemin Orukpe: Only uses hook-shots and dunks on offense, very effective defensively (less so against jump shooters), bad hands, weak FT shooter
• Jake White: Garbage man, finds holes, strong mid-range shooter, weak 3PT shooter
• Nick Wiggins: Weak defender, keep a defender close to prevent 3s
• Ron Baker: Likely limited endurance, fast shot, good defender

Team Notes:

• 26-8, RPI 39
• Best win streak: 9 games
• Worse loss streak: 3 games
• Play at very slow pace (239th)
• Stronger on defense than offense
• Best aspect: Rebounding (6th in defensive, 20th in offensive)
• Worst aspect: Offensively stagnant
• Common traits in winning opponents: All teams (except SIU) have either a high 3PT% or high FTA/FGA rating, and low TO%
• Common traits in losing opponents: All team were worse rebounding teams, 3 teams focused on steals, height disadvantages

Strategy

• Force them into faster pace, as they normally play slow and their guards make bad decisions
• Keep the middle packed in the halfcourt, prevent Early and Hall from getting touches and Armstead from driving
• Best option is to get Williams to shoot from 3
• Don't allow Wiggins to shoot uncontested shots (keep a man on him)
• If you have to foul, make sure you foul Cotton or Orukpe and not Early
• Only Armstead shoots non-assisted threes well, so give up some penetration (less help) to prevent kickouts
• Attack their on-ball defenders; they give up a lot of fouls and free-throws

Basically, I'm sure whoever we play will have a lot of information. They'll know that 100% of Early's made 3PT shots were assisted (yep 100%). They'll know that Carl Hall and Early don't get a lot of inside passes from our guards. They'll know our shooters, and each players strengths and weaknesses. But they won't necessarily make the current inferences. Detroit didn't. They expected their athleticism and speed to make up for a rebounding disadvantage, and thought a faster paced game would help them. I wouldn't be surprised to see a team make the same mistake.

I know the likelihood of a coach coming onto our board is none. But damm, at least make them watch some game tape to get all that info.

[CBB_Fan]

I know the likelihood of a coach coming onto our board is none. But damm, at least make them watch some game tape to get all that info.

Just to be clear, not everything in that is correct or complete. It is mostly correct information, but a lot of the premises reached are incorrect. If a coach tried to follow that, they'd probably lose.

[WstateU]

I know the likelihood of a coach coming onto our board is none. But damm, at least make them watch some game tape to get all that info.

F'N A MAN!

[WstateU]

Just to be clear, not everything in that is correct or complete. It is mostly correct information, but a lot of the premises reached are incorrect. If a coach tried to follow that, they'd probably lose.

[jocoshock]

So are you implying that whatever teams or teams we will play in the tournament will not have scouted us and perhaps might not even even find out that we were rated in the top 25 for extended periods and were even rated as high as #14?

This information gap might have been the case decades ago, but not today. And you can bet every team we will play will be quite aware of our problems with the zone.

I seriously doubt that we are going to surprise anyone and more importantly, I am sure hope our coaching staff will likewise not be overlooking anyone either.

If we are talking about a non-BCS opponent, then I would mostly agree with your points. As far as a BCS opponent is concerned... all the tape and preparation in the world will not help if the players view us as a stereotypical low seed mid-major and don't listen to their coach and properly prepare.

Or if that coach is like Mark Turgeon and is loathe to have his teams play zone during the regular season, trying to implement a zone defense at this late stage with a bunch of players who don't take us seriously will result in failure. In effect, they are not paying attention. We are not a typical mid-major in any respect and that can make us hard to prepare for by BCS teams that are getting in the tourney more because of their conference affiliation then their own full season performance. In 2006 we played a shitty Seton Hall team, then an over-seeded Tennesse. Two examples of what I am talking about. They didn't pay attention, and they lost.

This is why I don't want to be matched up against other non-BCS schools. Overall, they will be more us and fully prepared.