Welcome - Paul Mills

[ShockerFever]

I am curious as to what you thought the Shockers record would be at this point prior to the season? I can probably search and find it but just curious.

2-9

[ShockerFever]

the raw win loss record is pretty close, if not a little better than i thought. SDSU is the only WTF game. Prior to the season, I would have probably guessed 1-2 in the Tourney, so we did a little better there. The rest has been pretty close. I also expected us to lose to KSU/KU so we have a chance to overachieve there in comparison to my expectations too.

Right now its still a LOT of TBD due to schedule strength. So far since hitting the "real" part of our schedule (Richmond on) ...we are 2-2. If we can finish that 3-3, I would be pleasantly surprised.

I also think we will end up higher from a total win point than I expected because well... the AAC is WAY worse than I expected going into the year. We will likely get throttled by FAU/Memphis, but we should have a realistic shot in nearly every other game.

So in other words, it’s going as expected or even slightly better than expected but somehow that’s still not good enough.

[SubGod22]

So in other words, it’s going as expected or even slightly better than expected but somehow that’s still not good enough.

You're reading what you want to because you have an agenda against him.

We had a number of wins built into the schedule even if we played poorly, which we have at times. We still lost one of those games.

The team has shown flashes of brilliance and at other times they look horrible and prevent themselves from having a chance of winning winnable games.

As Stick has said, there's nothing that says the future looks extremely bright, and at the same time, there's nothing that says it's doom and gloom. There is still a lot of work to be done to find out where we're headed. Anyone who claims all is/will be well is just being hopeful. Anyone who says there is no hope is being dumb.

I'm amazed how some people take Stick using actual data points as him just being negative. The data is what the data is. There are still plenty of questions about this program right now. Denying that is just foolish. Time will tell how things shake out and we all want them to work out for the best. But wishing it to happen doesn't change what actually happens and what the data says.

Looking at simple W/L is naive.

[Kung Wu]

Screenshot 2023-12-20 at 2.37.42 PM.png

What I would like to see by the end of the year is meaningful improvements from our metrics. Right now (granted its apple to oranges because its a full year vs 11 games) we aren't meaningful different than last year.

We play at a faster pace, but Offensive and Defensive efficiencies are nearly identical. We don't shoot as well as last year (which is surprising, but data is data) but we are taking less 3s which is good. We are way lower on assist percentage, which makes sense. We protect the ball better but also generate less turnovers. Much better rebounding though.

IB's saving grace, Craig Porter, is looooong gone. And along with him any meaningful stats from last year.

[Stickboy46]

IB's saving grace, Craig Porter, is looooong gone. And along with him any meaningful stats from last year.

Well part of HCPMs job is to find people to replace players like CP. Hopefully Cortes is as advertised. If so, it will help our chance at meaningful improvement.

[WuDrWu]

I believe it has more to do with fatigue and limited rotational options than anything else, but that's just my opinion, not data.

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

IB's saving grace, Craig Porter, is looooong gone. And along with him any meaningful stats from last year.

Yep. Apples and oranges comparison. The "data" is flawed.

[Atxshoxfan]

Well part of HCPMs job is to find people to replace players like CP. Hopefully Cortes is as advertised. If so, it will help our chance at meaningful improvement.

PM didn't even have a full recruiting cycle. You can't judge his recruiting when he only had a few months to build a staff and recruit.

[Stickboy46]

I believe it has more to do with fatigue and limited rotational options than anything else, but that's just my opinion, not data.

While may be true. Having enough players good enough and/or eligible is the coach responsibility. Probably the only one that HCPM really gets a pass on is Ricks. Not really much he can do there.

[Stickboy46]

Yep. Apples and oranges comparison. The "data" is flawed.

Data is data. Excuses are excuses. Data isn't flawed. You are just building in your own biases to not believe the data. That's on you .. not the data. There may be lots of reasons why, but we are basically playing at the same level as last year.

That said, its not the worst thing in the world to not have a drop off in year one. It might end up being a really good thing as long as things improve. Plenty of time for him to figure that out. I'm just looking unbiased at the data.

EDIT:
I seem to be the one always getting stones thrown at me. But i rarely see others putting out their ideas of what exactly would "good" look like to them. I'm curious what would others deem successful for this year? Something that is meaningful and measurable. What RESULTS would people like to see for this year to feel good. Same with next year. What would people like to see in year 2? I'm willing to guess, when comparing those things with what i've laid out as my expectation, most people probably aren't too far off.

[Kung Wu]

Well part of HCPMs job is to find people to replace players like CP. Hopefully Cortes is as advertised. If so, it will help our chance at meaningful improvement.

There is almost zero chance Cortes is an NBA player. So, no, he's not going to step in and immediately replace _Craig Porter_. Hopefully, he will step in and replace Bell and Beverly, allowing them to see more time at the 2 though.

[Stickboy46]

There is almost zero change Cortes is an NBA player. So, no, he's not going to step in and immediately replace _Craig Porter_. Hopefully, he will step in and replace Bell and Beverly, allowing them to see more time at the 2 though.

That's very fair. And to my point earlier .. even without Cortes we are playing at a similar level to last year. So if he can come in and provide any boost, it should get us pretty dang close to what I was hoping to see this year. Which is a meaningful improvement over last year.

[ShockTalk]

What I think will be interesting to see is "who all are going to lose minutes to Cortes and how many minutes will he get"? It won't be Rogers (maybe 1-3 minutes to Bell). Logically, it would be who Cortes is replacing, Bell. And while our hope is that Cortes will improve not only our PG position, but the team as a whole, we will most likely see a fair number of minutes lost by our #2 scorer currently at 15 ppg. How much improvement can we expect in assists (2-4?) and fewer TOs (probably minimal at best, .5).

Cortes played 17+ MPG last year, but only scored 3.2 PPG, despite having a good 3pt %. He also had 2 assists per game, but also 1.4 TO per game.

I'm not sure, from at least past performance, we can expect too much outside of giving Rogers and Bell more rest each game and not having as much leg fatigue. Hoping it will be better than I think.

[ShockHat]

What I think will be interesting to see is "who all are going to lose minutes to Cortes and how many minutes will he get"? It won't be Rogers (maybe 1-3 minutes to Bell). Logically, it would be who Cortes is replacing, Bell. And while our hope is that Cortes will improve not only our PG position, but the team as a whole, we will most likely see a fair number of minutes lost by our #2 scorer currently at 15 ppg. How much improvement can we expect in assists (2-4?) and fewer TOs (probably minimal at best, .5).

Cortes played 17+ MPG last year, but only scored 3.2 PPG, despite having a good 3pt %. He also had 2 assists per game, but also 1.4 TO per game.

I'm not sure, from at least past performance, we can expect too much outside of giving Rogers and Bell more rest each game and not having as much leg fatigue. Hoping it will be better than I think.

An interesting stat is how much worse the team performs when BELL isn’t on the floor. That surprised me. I don’t have the stat but taylor referenced it once

[ShockTalk]

An interesting stat is how much worse the team performs when BELL isn’t on the floor. That surprised me. I don’t have the stat but taylor referenced it once

Makes sense. We currently have NO point guards playing and Bell is the best substitute. He goes out, it gets worse. The key is going to be "just how much better will it be when Cortes is at PG and Bell is out". Can Cortes make up for Bell on the bench? Less fatigue for Rogers and Bell may be the biggest plus.