Realignment Carousel Spins Up again (USC and UCLA to Big 10)

[Stickboy46]

It's weird because the rumors bouncing around suggest the PAC wants to add Memphis, Tulane, a Texas school (probably UTSA), and likely UNLV to get to 10 members. Perhaps they want to add in tranches, but I haven't seen anything credible about them going much bigger than that, which would leave Memphis and Tulane with a lot of travel.

I guess if they can get $15m a year in media revenue then it doesn't really matter. I feel like a lot of the enthusiasm for this conference is associated with the PAC brand.

Its still odd since the new "Pac" is more MWC than it is anything else

[TrackSuitAndTie]

Its still odd since the new "Pac" is more MWC than it is anything else

And the two members from the original PAC are the least valuable schools.

[Walker]

It's weird that these schools are so willing to jump to a conference that is basically a slightly better Mountain West. Is the PAC brand strong enough to really attract good media deals in the future that will make the travel costs worth it?

I hope Coach Mills can get us back on the right track this season and bring some appeal to our brand in order to have any hope of joining the Big East. Who the hell knows anymore though if that conference won't eventually implode too, though.

[ShockerFever]

The PAC will always be a mid major. The name won’t change that. If Memphis wants to put all of their eggs in a basket and travel 2000 miles for games against Fresno State and Boise State, have at it. They can’t succeed in the AAC, if they think a west coast conference is the ticket to success, then they are in for an even ruder awakening. I personally wanna see it happen just for entertainment value.

[BostonWu]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/if-memphis-is-invited-to-the-pac-12-the-tigers-should-pack-their-bags-and-move-on-from-the-aac/?fbclid=IwY2xjawFZJTFleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHaRKLw4LGddVk0DN-_W_IJ1Ijc0v8GhBTd4JB81bm40Uug10Ra5VHMSyTw_aem_OIXpUz1CDzWBceIYXOQd0w

Some fair points but overall I think Parrish paints a rosier picture for the pacxx than what plays out in the long term. For example, he's banking on boise and CSU to remain at their current levels in basketball. Once Medved leaves Ft Collins all bets are off.

[TrackSuitAndTie]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba...DzWBceIYXOQd0w

Some fair points but overall I think Parrish paints a rosier picture for the pacxx than what plays out in the long term. For example, he's banking on boise and CSU to remain at their current levels in basketball. Once Medved leaves Ft Collins all bets are off.

Very good programs:

San Diego State has made the NCAAT 11 times in the last 16 years.
Memphis has made the NCAAT 8 times in the last 16 years.

Pretty good programs:

Boise State has made the NCAAT 6 times in the last 16 years.
Colorado State has made the NCAAT 4 times in the last 16 years.

Not-so-great programs:

Washington State has made the NCAAT 2 times in the last 16 years.
Oregon State has made the NCAAT 2 times in the last 16 years.
Fresno State has made the NCAAT 1 time in the last 16 years.
UTSA has made the NCAAT 1 time in the last 16 years.
Tulane has made the NCAAT 0 times in the last 16 years.

[Kung Wu]

Very good programs:

San Diego State has made the NCAAT 11 times in the last 16 years.
Memphis has made the NCAAT 8 times in the last 16 years.

Pretty good programs:

Boise State has made the NCAAT 6 times in the last 16 years.
Colorado State has made the NCAAT 4 times in the last 16 years.

Not-so-great programs:

Washington State has made the NCAAT 2 times in the last 16 years.
Oregon State has made the NCAAT 2 times in the last 16 years.
Fresno State has made the NCAAT 1 time in the last 16 years.
UTSA has made the NCAAT 1 time in the last 16 years.
Tulane has made the NCAAT 0 times in the last 16 years.

How does that compare with the AAC if Memphis and Tulane stays?

[TrackSuitAndTie]

How does that compare with the AAC if Memphis and Tulane stays?

Very good programs:

Wichita State has made the NCAAT 8 times in the last 16 years.
Memphis has made the NCAAT 8 times in the last 16 years.
Temple has made the NCAAT 8 times in the last 16 years.

Pretty good programs (recency bias for FAU and UNT):

UAB has made the NCAAT 4 times in the last 16 years.
FAU has made the NCAAT 2 times in the last 16 years.
North Texas has made the NCAAT 2 times in the last 16 years.

Not-so-great programs:

Tulsa has made the NCAAT 2 times in the last 16 years.
South Florida has made the NCAAT 1 time in the last 16 years.
UTSA has made the NCAAT 1 time in the last 16 years.
Charlotte has made the NCAAT 0 times in the last 16 years.
Tulane has made the NCAAT 0 times in the last 16 years.
ECU has made the NCAAT 0 times in the last 16 years.
Rice has made the NCAAT 0 times in the last 16 years.

[Kung Wu]

Very good programs:

Wichita State has made the NCAAT 8 times in the last 16 years.
Memphis has made the NCAAT 8 times in the last 16 years.
Temple has made the NCAAT 8 times in the last 16 years.

Pretty good programs (recency bias for FAU and UNT):

UAB has made the NCAAT 4 times in the last 16 years.
FAU has made the NCAAT 2 times in the last 16 years.
North Texas has made the NCAAT 2 times in the last 16 years.

Not-so-great programs:

Tulsa has made the NCAAT 2 times in the last 16 years.
South Florida has made the NCAAT 1 time in the last 16 years.
UTSA has made the NCAAT 1 time in the last 16 years.
Charlotte has made the NCAAT 0 times in the last 16 years.
Tulane has made the NCAAT 0 times in the last 16 years.
ECU has made the NCAAT 0 times in the last 16 years.
Rice has made the NCAAT 0 times in the last 16 years.

Nice!

The PAC probably does this analysis with football programs instead of basketball though, I suppose. So Memphis needs to figure that out.

[jdmee]

They probably need to do the analysis over how much TV revenue are they going to get from a conference that couldn't get a TV deal when it had all its members. The PAC12 will just be an AAC/MWC after all the NCAA credits are gone. It is only attractive now because it holds the rights to those $. After they are gone, what then?

[molly jabali]

The PAC will always be a mid major. The name won’t change that. If Memphis wants to put all of their eggs in a basket and travel 2000 miles for games against Fresno State and Boise State, have at it. They can’t succeed in the AAC, if they think a west coast conference is the ticket to success, then they are in for an even ruder awakening. I personally wanna see it happen just for entertainment value.

This 1000%

[TrackSuitAndTie]

[RoyalShock]

I think the assumption we should all be under, is that this is going to happen, further diluting the AAC. The conference jump at the time was a no-brainer. We knew UConn would probably bolt, but I don't think very many of us imagined the conference getting raided the way it has in just six or seven years.

The only programs left (after Memphis leaves) that we even mildly looked forward to playing is Tulsa and Temple. Once this next wave happens, we should be the water-carrying program of the AAC, right back where we were with the MVC. Not saying I want to be back in the MVC, but whatever the AAC looks like in two years won't be much, if any better than what the MVC was when we left. The AAC, thanks to football, will at least still be higher profile, probably more TV money. But that may or may not mitigate the extra travel costs. We'll see.

I guess our last attractive option is to be asked to join the new PAC, possibly with Gonzaga. It will obviously be better than the AAC, but shifting travel and TV times to the west will suck.

EDIT: I should add, if the AAC could add AFA and UNM, and maybe Wyo, to offset losing Memphis, and whoever from the pool of Tulane/USF/UTSA, that would help me feel better about the next version of the AAC.

[Dan]

Better get ready for UT Arlington, Texas A&M Corpus Christi and Arkansas State

[TrackSuitAndTie]

I'm ready for the A-10 if Memphis leaves the AAC.