Valley ranked #7 in warren nolan rpi

[shox1989]

Other Valley scores on Saturday: MoSt 5 Indy st. 0; ISUR 8 Ue 7; SIU 10 IPFW 4; DBU 16 Bu 7

Shox finish 3rd, ISU-R 4th

[shock10]

Dallas Baptist finishes the Valley with a 14-7 record tied with ISU Blue and ISU Blue beat them 2 out of 3.

[shock10]

I just went thru this and we are 1 of 64

http://www.d1baseball.com/conferences/index.htm

[shock10]

http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/currentrpi.html

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2012/nitty

Still at 44

6-7 against the top 50

17-17 against the top 100

13-6 against the 100-200

5-0 vs. 200-297

If that's not good enough then we got screwed.

[WuDrWu]

Well I still think we have work to do. There are probably too many scenarios to cover right now, but I'd feel pretty good about going 3-0 or 3-1, beating MSU at least once, then losing in the finals to Indiana State. But what if we go 3-0, beat MSU twice (I don't think this will happen mind you) and then lose to someone other than Indiana State?

We'd improve to 8-7 against the top 50, 38-24 overall, our RPI undoubtly would be better than 44, we'd be 14-13 away from home, again a superior record to most other at large candidates....but would the Valley get 4 bids? I think not.

Maybe with the only real difference against ISUB at that point being a 1 run extra inning game on the road (win that and we finish ahead of the Trees) and a SOS 100 points higher we get the nod...but I doubt it.

[Ta town]

Well I still think we have work to do. There are probably too many scenarios to cover right now, but I'd feel pretty good about going 3-0 or 3-1, beating MSU at least once, then losing in the finals to Indiana State. But what if we go 3-0, beat MSU twice (I don't think this will happen mind you) and then lose to someone other than Indiana State?

We'd improve to 8-7 against the top 50, 38-24 overall, our RPI undoubtly would be better than 44, we'd be 14-13 away from home, again a superior record to most other at large candidates....but would the Valley get 4 bids? I think not.

Maybe with the only real difference against ISUB at that point being a 1 run extra inning game on the road (win that and we finish ahead of the Trees) and a SOS 100 points higher we get the nod...but I doubt it.

If ISUr battles thru that side of the bracket (probably means beating ISUb twice) they will improve to a top 50 rpi as they are at 53 right now. That would also give WSU two more top 50 victories.

[SB Shock]

If that's not good enough the we got screwed.

Now it will be a function of how many teams win their auto-bid who didn't deserve a bid in a multi-bid conference.

My analysis showed:

47 Teams in through their Auto-Bid or a Lock
15 Teams likely-In (WSU in this group)
9 Bubble Teams fighting for 2 remaining slots

These are the bubble busting tournaments you need to watch and root for tournament locks (I didn't research these conference to see if they all have tournaments, if they don't you can removed them from list)

Big South
B10
Big West
B12
CAA
CUSA
MVC
MWC
Pac 12
SEC
Southern
West Coast
WAC

The likely-in can change to bubble out if there are a lot of upsets in the above tournaments.

[shock10]

Ok can you say how many at large these conference's would get IF there would happen to be a major upset in there tournaments? Let's just say OSU won the Big 12 auto as I don't see them as at large. the Big 12 would get 4 at large? How many for the big South? And so on. Will that eat up the 17 up for grabs before WSU gets the call?

Now it will be a function of how many teams win their auto-bid who didn't deserve a bid in a multi-bid conference.

My analysis showed:

47 Teams in through their Auto-Bid or a Lock
15 Teams likely-In (WSU in this group)
9 Bubble Teams fighting for 2 remaining slots

These are the bubble busting tournaments you need to watch and root for tournament locks (I didn't research these conference to see if they all have tournaments, if they don't you can removed them from list)

Big South
B10
Big West
B12
CAA
CUSA
MVC
MWC
Pac 12
SEC
Southern
West Coast
WAC

The likely-in can change to bubble out if there are a lot of upsets in the above tournaments.

[WuDrWu]

We probably should start looking at other tournaments etc for possible needs.

America East - no concern. Stoney Brook will not get an at large.
Atlantic 10 - no concern. St. Louis will not get an at large.

ACC- First interesting conference. 8 team tourney set. Maryland at 10-20 in conference is out with a 31 RPI. None of the 8 in the tournament appear to be in danger. You gotta hope the Terps and their 8 SOS are out. Also missed Virginia Tech and their 36 RPI and 15-17 top 100 record. Thinking one of these 2 might get in.

Atlantic Sun - No concern. I can't see Belmont or SCU getting an at large. Maybe a 2% concern.

Big10- Huge concern. Purdue is in. Everyone else is out. Pray Purdue wins the 6 team tournament with the bye. All games on the BTN starting Wednesday.

Big12 - Another problem. Baylor and A&m in. OU and UT almost certainly in, but don't go 0-2 either. OSU, Mizzou, KU and KSU out, and TT didn't make the tourney. KU and KSU shouldn't be a problem, but you don't want Mizzou or OSU stealing a bid. Tourney starts Wednesday at OKC Brickyard Ballpark.

[WuDrWu]

Big East - Another problem. Louisville should be in. St Johns should be OUT, but they won't be. They'll be at least a bubble with their Power conference affiliation and somehow still getting votes in the rankings. After the Annual Big East home run derby on Tuesday (whaaaa?) the tourney start Wednesday in Florida. Need to hope Louisville wins and the Johnies go 0-2. Wanna bet the Big East gets 2 (or 3) before the Valley gets 3 (or 4)?

BigSouth - Another problem. Coastal Carolina is a bubble team but looks in. Campbell and Liberty outside looking in but quality teams perfectly capable of taking the tourney at High Point starting Tuesday. Root hard for the Chanticleers.

The Big West does not appear to have a tournament. That being said, Cal State Fullerton at LBSU to determine the auto bid next weekend. LBSU is probably in trouble for an at large. Sweep the Titans and they are in, and so is CSF. Yes that would help our resume, but it takes away a spot for us, for sure. Best case is probably to have LBSU win 2 of 3 but you don't want the Dirtbags too close to us.

CAA - Problem. UNC-Wilmington is right there with us at 43 in the RPI. Would be nice to see them win. They get a bye in the 6 team tourney starting Wednesday at James Madison.

CUSA - Problem. Big problem. Rice is in but the tourney is at USM and it's pod play and USM is in Rice's half. UCF is also in. East Carolina is WSU on steroids. 25 RPI but finished 6th in conference. 5-9 top 50 but 17-15 top 100. Tulane is a bubble, USM and Memphis outside looking in. Go Rice. But what about East Carolina? Again...does CUSA get #4 and #5 (and maybe 6) before the Valley gets 3 (or 4).

Great West - no problem. Even with their gaudy 43-12 record, 3-7 against the top 100 won't get Utah Valley an at large. Fortunately for them, they went 28-0 in conference and don't appear to be threatened in the tourney.

Horizon - No problem. Valpo isn't getting an at large.

Independents - DBU is in. Nobody else is in.

Ivy - Cornell wins the regular season with no tourney and is the autobid. No issues here.

MAAC - No problems.
MAC - No problems. Kent State isn't getting an at large.
MEAC - No problems.

MVC - Problem. MSU, ISUB look good but still bubble. WSU real bubble. ISUR outside looking in. We need to win.

[shock10]

I have to agree that the espn led big east will get 7 teams in not because there any good but because the have been in bed with espn forever and espn runs the ncaa

[WuDrWu]

MWC - Small problem. TCU is almost certainly in, but is the 2 seed in conference. New Mexico is on the bubble at 64 but it's only a 4 team tourney. We need the Horned Frogs to win.

NEC - No problem.
OVC - No problem.

PAC12 - Here we go again. Oregon, UCLA, Stanford, Arizona & (probably) OSU locks. I don't think there is a tourney which is good. Would like to see Washington lose a 3rd straight today to ASU (and at least 1 to WSU next weekend) and Cal not get hot against UCLA and Stanford in their last 4 games. 5 teams is enough for the PAC12 with ASU banned.

Patriot - No problem. Army isn't getting an at large.

SEC - Sigh. Florida, South Carolina, LSU, Arkansas, Kentucky are locks. Ole Miss, Miss State and Vandy I'm sure get in too but they all have issues. Georgia and Auburn on the bubble. 5, probably 8, hopefully not more. Tourney starts Tuesday in Alabama.

[GoShockers89]

Good summary Doc. The only thing I'd point out is that the Great West doesn't receive an auto-bid this year- their conference tournament is being used as a dry run for when they begin to qualify (next year?). They did the same thing in basketball this season.

Utah Valley State played one of the weakest schedules out there, but there is a lobby out there trying to get them in despite very, very poor computer numbers. ESPN's weekly column has had them as one of their darlings all season and currently has them Last 5 In. Their bid, should they receive it, would be an at-large.

[WuDrWu]

Southern - Another problem. App State looks good with their 34 RPI but Charleston at 42, Elon at 51 and Samford at 57 all pose problems and possibilities. Tourney starts Wednesday in Greenville, SC.

Southland - Don't sleep on this conference. Sam Houston State is 50, USL is 55 and Texas State is 60. Tourney starts Wed. #8 seed Corpus Christi has a total ace stud to throw at #1 SHSU. 2 bids not out of the question.

SWAC - no problems.
Summit - No problems. ORU isn't at large worthy this season.
Sun Belt - Florida Atlantic would be a long shot for an at large. Cheer for them, but don't sweat too hard if they lose.

WCC - Pepperdine and San Diego look safe and play each other next weekend in a 3 game set. Appears there is no tourney. Gonzaga is a bubble team BUT they are tied in conference with USF who certainly is not a bubble team at 27-29 and Loyola Marymount at 23-26. I'd say the Zags better go at least 4-1 in their last 5 games (Portland today, then at Washington State and 3 @ BYU) to remain in the at large hunt.

WAC - Interesting. New Mexico State is 29 in the RPI but has to win today to finish in a 3 way tie for first. Lose and they finish tied with Hawaii for 4th. Nevada @ 63, Hawaii @ 68, Sacramento State at #105 ties for the title. Tourney starts Wednesday in Mesa.

[WuDrWu]

Good summary Doc. The only thing I'd point out is that the Great West doesn't receive an auto-bid this year- their conference tournament is being used as a dry run for when they begin to qualify (next year?). They did the same thing in basketball this season.

Utah Valley State played one of the weakest schedules out there, but there is a lobby out there trying to get them in despite very, very poor computer numbers. ESPN's weekly column has had them as one of their darlings all season and currently has them Last 5 In. Their bid, should they receive it, would be an at-large.

Many thanks for the clarification. While I sympathize with their plight, 9-12 against the top 200 (not 100 but 200) isn't enough. They are 34-0 against 201+. That's just not good enough, ever.