Valley ranked #7 in warren nolan rpi

[shock10]

So by my count 38 teams trying for 32 at large bids?

[WuDrWu]

There's just a lot of work to do with all the conferences and all the bubble teams.

I still look at the conferences more than the teams, even though I know (wink wink) the selection committee doesn't.

With apologies to @JamarHoward4President , here is my list:


Guaranteed 1 Bid Leagues (12): America East, A-10, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, NEC, OVC, Patriot, SWAC, Summitt

Probable 1 Bid Leagues (2): Atlantic Sun (Belmont, SC-Upstate), SunBelt (Florida Atlantic)

Possible Multi-Bid Leagues:

ACC:........(Min:8 Max:10)
SEC:........(Min:5 Max:10)
Pac12:.....(Min:5 Max:7)
Big12:......(Min:2 Max:5)
MVC:........(Min:1 Max:4)
WCC:........(Min:2 Max:3)
Big10:......(Min:1 Max:2)
BigEast:....(Min:1 Max:3)
BigSouth:..(Min:1 Max:3)
BigWest:...(Min:1 Max:2)
CAA:........(Min:1 Max:2)
CUSA:......(Min:2 Max:6)
MWC:.......(Min:1 Max:3)
Southern:..(Min:1 Max:5)
Southland:.(Min:1 Max:4)
WAC:........(Min:1 Max:4)

12 one bid leagues + 18 from (possible) multi-bid leagues + 34 at large teams = 64 teams.

[WuDrWu]

So by my count 38 teams trying for 32 at large bids?

I think there are a lot more than 38 teams fighting for 34 spots.

[Capitol Shock II]

Do you guys really think we have a good chance of getting invited?

[WuDrWu]

Do you guys really think we have a good chance of getting invited?

Maybe not a "good" chance, but we're in the discussion. No doubt a strong MVC tourney is imperative.

[shock10]

I can't beat this drum enough IF the Valley was a BCS conference they would get half of their teams in. Only because they are one of the 6 BEST conferences in the country. So as one of the 6 best conferences they get half. Half of 8 is 4. Half of 9 is 4.5. ISU Blue DBU MSU WSU by order of there finish. I put Dallas Baptist in their because they should be in the Valley.

[SB Shock]

Do you guys really think we have a good chance of getting invited?

If the bids were awarded today - WSU would be in. But WSU can't afford to give the committee a reason to exclude them like 2 and Q in the MVC tournament. The biggest factor is still how all the conference tournament play out. There is a secondary factor this is hard to predict - but sometime the selection committee has an agenda that allows surprise teams in.

[WuDrWu]

Again, I am not informed enough to break things down like JH4P did in basketball. Here is my initial opinion (no particular order by the way):

Guaranteed 1 bid leagues: (12)

Locks (21): Florida State, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Miami, Virginia, Purdue, Texas A&M, Baylor, Fullerton, Rice, Central Florida, Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA, Stanford, Arizona, Florida, Arkansas, South Carolina, Kentucky, LSU.

Very Likely (would need to stumble badly and have many upsets in other tourneys to miss) (6): Clemson, Louisville, TCU, Mississippi State, Pepperdine, San Diego

Others Expected to Get In (5): Coastal Carolina, East Carolina, Dallas Baptist, Missouri State, New Mexico State

Fighting for Their At Large Lives (17): Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Michigan State, Texas, Oklahoma, Long Beach State, UNC-Wilmington, Tulane, Wichita State, Indiana State, New Mexico, Mississippi, Vanderbilt, Appalachian State, Charleston, Sam Houston State, Southeastern Louisiana,

Need Help or Lots of Work to Do (13): Maryland, Virginia Tech, Belmont, St. Johns, Illinois State, Washington, California, Elon, Auburn, Georgia, Samford, Texas State, Gonzaga

Bubble Busted; Win the Tourney or Go Home: South Carolina Upstate, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Missouri, Campbell, Southern Mississippi, Memphis, Liberty, Utah Valley State, Florida Atlantic, Nevada, Hawaii


44 Very solid teams, 17 in the next group (with WSU) and 13 teams fighting for 3 spots, without factoring in conference tourney upsets.

[WuDrWu]

Bottom line...I have us in...but not anywhere close to a lock. I also expect the bubble to shrink, perhaps by 3-6 bids, with conference tourney upsets. The difference between the best "Fighting for their lives" team and the worst "Needs help" team is tiny.

[shock10]

Again, I am not informed enough to break things down like JH4P did in basketball. Here is my initial opinion (no particular order by the way):

Guaranteed 1 bid leagues: (12)

Locks (21): Florida State, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Miami, Virginia, Purdue, Texas A&M, Baylor, Fullerton, Rice, Central Florida, Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA, Stanford, Arizona, Florida, Arkansas, South Carolina, Kentucky, LSU.

Very Likely (would need to stumble badly and have many upsets in other tourneys to miss) (6): Clemson, Louisville, TCU, Mississippi State, Pepperdine, San Diego

Others Expected to Get In (5): Coastal Carolina, East Carolina, Dallas Baptist, Missouri State, New Mexico State

Fighting for Their At Large Lives (17): Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Michigan State, Texas, Oklahoma, Long Beach State, UNC-Wilmington, Tulane, Wichita State, Indiana State, New Mexico, Mississippi, Vanderbilt, Appalachian State, Charleston, Sam Houston State, Southeastern Louisiana,

Need Help or Lots of Work to Do (13): Maryland, Virginia Tech, Belmont, St. Johns, Illinois State, Washington, California, Elon, Auburn, Georgia, Samford, Texas State, Gonzaga

Bubble Busted; Win the Tourney or Go Home: South Carolina Upstate, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Missouri, Campbell, Southern Mississippi, Memphis, Liberty, Utah Valley State, Florida Atlantic, Nevada, Hawaii


44 Very solid teams, 17 in the next group (with WSU) and 13 teams fighting for 3 spots, without factoring in conference tourney upsets.

Or 30 teams trying for 20 spots?

[WuDrWu]

That sounds pretty good '10. I suspect it will change to about 23 teams fighting for 9 spots as the week unfolds.

[1972Shocker]

Do you guys really think we have a good chance of getting invited?

If we go 3-2 or better in the MVC Tournament then we should get an invite.

If we go 2-2 then we have a chance but it could go either way.

If we go 1-2 or worse then I don't like our chances.

Pretty much a seat of the pants guess on my part.

[ShockTalk]

I can't beat this drum enough IF the Valley was a BCS conference they would get half of their teams in. Only because they are one of the 6 BEST conferences in the country. So as one of the 6 best conferences they get half. Half of 8 is 4. Half of 9 is 4.5. ISU Blue DBU MSU WSU by order of there finish. I put Dallas Baptist in their because they should be in the Valley.

Not sure I can agree with you on this one @shock10:. There is no BCS conference right below us to test. The Big XII (#4) is in the same boat as the MVC (#6). If we include DB, the Valley will get 3/4 of 9 in. The Big XII will get 3/4 of 9 in. There is so very little difference between WSU vs OU or Texas that it would be hard to make that conclusion if they got 4, we 3. Now if Texas and/or OU have a bad tourney and WSU a good one and it turns out that way, you've got a good grip.

There is a reason that the PAC-12 (#3) will get 5 (would have been 6 w/ AZ St) teams in. Their #6 of 11 teams has an RPI of 38 (Nolan), better than all Valley teams except MSU and that by just 1 spot. In RPI rank groupings, Oregon St is 7-9/10-5/11-4/6-0. WSU is 6-7/11-10/13-6/5-0. In a blind comparison, Oregon St wins. By the way, had AZ St been eligible, they were next at 19 RPI.

[shock10]

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2012/nitty

I like this: A lot of negatives on like Tulane, Vanderbilt in DANGER, Michigan State 2-6 vs. the top 50. Stuff like that make me feel we have a ok chance. But we need to win some games in Springfield.

[GoShockers89]

If we go 3-2 or better in the MVC Tournament then we should get an invite.

If we go 2-2 then we have a chance but it could go either way.

If we go 1-2 or worse then I don't like our chances.

Pretty much a seat of the pants guess on my part.

I think this is spot on.