Valley ranked #7 in warren nolan rpi

[shocker3]

Our ncaa resume is pretty strong right now: RPI 41, SOS 31, 2-2 against the RPI top 10, 4-3 against the RPI top 25, 8-8 against the RPI top 50. Compared to other bubble teams our numbers look quite favorable.

Our big blemish is that we are tied for 5th in the MVC. Our resume will get us at large consideration but a 5th place finish will probably end the discussion.

Aaron Fitt of Baseball America says there are 4 Valley teams under at large discussion: Miss St, WSU, Indy St, and Ill St. If those 4 can finish in the top 4 in the league standings, then a 3rd place finish should be fine (a 4th place finish while playing in the championship game might work too).

But getting there (a 3rd place finish) AND keeping our RPI numbers good means we will need to go 5-1 or 6-0 in our remaining Valley games and winning the game at UNL (unless the Alcorn State game gets cancelled and then we could probably lose at UNL without any problems - it is a road game at a RPI top 100 team).

[shocker3]

Yes Warren Nolan is predicting that WSU will go 4-2 in its remaining Valley games and finish with a rpi of 41. But that is in conflict with Boyd's World which says WSU must go 7-1 to finish in the top 45.

Personally, I think a third place finish with the rest of our strong resume would be good enough. The Valley is 7th this year, it is not 14-17th like many years. In some previous years the Valley has sent 3 teams to the tournament. If all of the top 3 teams are at large contenders then there is no reason that a 3rd place finish should hurt us (with the rest of our strong numbers: SOS #31, TOP 25: 4-3, TOP 50: 8-8) Of course WSU is going to have to play a lot better in its last 6 Valley games just to be able to finish in 3rd.

I like Warren Nolan and I visit that site often. But when it comes to college baseball I trust Boyd Nation more.

I think the difference between the Warren Nolan prediction (predicts WSU will lose 3 more games AND finish with a RPI OF 41) and Boyd Nations RPI needs assessment (says WSU must go 7-1 to finish in the top 45) is that Boyd Nation takes into better account the affect the future teams projected record will have an our SOS. I don't think Warren Nolan does that very well.

That is why I want the Alcorn State game cancelled. If we don't play that game I think we can probably go 5-1 in the remaining Valley games and lose at UNL and still finish in the top 45. If we play Alcorn, I am with Boyd Nation that we will probably need to go 7-1 overall.

I think we need all of the cushion we can get, so I am hoping for rain on Wednesday.

[ShockerFever]

There's just no hope for the blind. I hope you two like the crash down to earth after you have continually upped your projections and expectations that simply isn't gonna happen. I figured the play on the field during the first two games of the Indiana State series would settle everything. Apparently, it has not. Once again, those two games are forgotten and the meaningless Game 3 win is the only thing that matters.

It's all too comical.

And sorry, but there is a ZERO % chance of rain on Wednesday. That game WILL be played. The chance of it raining on Wednesday is the same chance WSU has on getting an at-large bid. I wish these delusionalists would concentrate more on the Valley Tournament for their own health and well-being because my dear Lord, they are setting themselves up. It's no coincidence that these two probably still think nothing is wrong with WSU baseball, that they are the same team/program that went to the CWS 20 years ago, the same coach and staff that has them continuously ranked in the Top 10. These posters have a delayed reaction to reality.

[shocker3]

There's just no hope for the blind. I hope you two like the crash down to earth after you have continually upped your projections and expectations that simply isn't gonna happen. I figured the play on the field during the first two games of the Indiana State series would settle everything. Apparently, it has not. Once again, those two games are forgotten and the meaningless Game 3 win is the only thing that matters.

It's all too comical.

And sorry, but there is a ZERO % chance of rain on Wednesday. That game WILL be played. The chance of it raining on Wednesday is the same chance WSU has on getting an at-large bid. I wish these delusionalists would concentrate more on the Valley Tournament for their own health and well-being because my dear Lord, they are setting themselves up. It's no coincidence that these two probably still think nothing is wrong with WSU baseball, that they are the same team/program that went to the CWS 20 years ago, the same coach and staff that has them continuously ranked in the Top 10. These posters have a delayed reaction to reality.

I guess there is still hope. The Alcorn State game WILL NOT be played afterall. Maybe that is a sign of more good things to come.

[shox1989]

There's just no hope for the blind. I hope you two like the crash down to earth after you have continually upped your projections and expectations that simply isn't gonna happen. I figured the play on the field during the first two games of the Indiana State series would settle everything. Apparently, it has not. Once again, those two games are forgotten and the meaningless Game 3 win is the only thing that matters.

It's all too comical.

And sorry, but there is a ZERO % chance of rain on Wednesday. That game WILL be played. The chance of it raining on Wednesday is the same chance WSU has on getting an at-large bid. I wish these delusionalists would concentrate more on the Valley Tournament for their own health and well-being because my dear Lord, they are setting themselves up. It's no coincidence that these two probably still think nothing is wrong with WSU baseball, that they are the same team/program that went to the CWS 20 years ago, the same coach and staff that has them continuously ranked in the Top 10. These posters have a delayed reaction to reality.

I wasn't sure which two you were talking about Aaron Fit with Baseball America? Warren Nolan? or Boyd's World? since they are the ones making the projections that are being quoted on this thread.
I am just happy the rain came two days early and the Alcorn St game will NOT be played on Wednesday. :poster_shocks:

[shox1989]

You know what is strange is that I listened to the Gene Stephenson show tonight and they talked like the Alcorn State came would be played on Wednesday. They were talking about the starting pitcher (Tobin Mateychick) and that they would use a pre-determined split. I guess the cancellation must have not happened until just a few minutes ago.

[shockerofandover0943]

And sorry, but there is a ZERO % chance of rain on Wednesday. That game WILL be played. The chance of it raining on Wednesday is the same chance WSU has on getting an at-large bid.

So what are the at-large chances if the game just gets cancelled? I always enjoy your tirades though.

[LuskingforGuttin]

Why would you boys welch on a game like that? I hope that Alcorn still gets their guarantee $.

[shox1989]

Why would you boys welch on a game like that? I hope that Alcorn still gets their guarantee $.

It was apparently Alcorn State that backed out. Finals week was their excuse (like they didn't know that when the game was rescheduled).

[shox1989]

When is the last time a team cancelled 2 days before they were suppose to play and it had nothing to do with weather? Miracles do happen.

[LuskingforGuttin]

It was apparently Alcorn State that backed out. Finals week was their excuse (like they didn't know that when the game was rescheduled).

I hate to see that. Would have been exciting for those kids to get to play at Wichita. But academics must come first.

[shox1989]

I hate to see that. Would have been exciting for those kids to get to play at Wichita. But academics must come first.

They already played once this year against the Shox at Eck Stadium. They still get to play Okie State 3 times this weekend in Stillwater. It is not the same as the Eck but it will have to do for them.

[ShockerFever]

I guess there is still hope. The Alcorn State game WILL NOT be played afterall. Maybe that is a sign of more good things to come.

Maybe it's a sign that the world will end this year.

[ShockerFever]

So what are the at-large chances if the game just gets cancelled? I always enjoy your tirades though.

Just let me know if it rains on Wednesday... :glee:

[ShockerFever]

nm