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Originally posted by JJClamdip
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We went 3-1 this week. If we can do that each of the next 3 weeks, we should be in a good position to get an at large bid. It is definitely a long shot. But it is not impossible. -
I think we pretty much have to sweep this weekend to have any chance of an at-large. If we sweep this weekend we have a good chance to finish 2nd. At the very worst we need 2 out of 3 and hope for some help...Originally posted by shoxlax View PostComment
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Valley rpis after Sunday's games: MoST #39, WSU #54, Indy St. #56, ISU-R #69, BU #96, SIU #109, UE #119, Cu#202
DBU is at #37Comment
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Those are 1 bid type numbers.Comment
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I thought I would add the Big 12 for comparison. Baylor #3, Texas A&M #19, Texas #42, OU #63, Texas Tech #89, Missouri #94, OSU #99, KSU #154, KU #160.Originally posted by shox1989 View Post
SB - Curious if you think the Big 12 is a 2 or 3 bid conference? Where does Texas stand (same question I asked on the DBU game 3 thread)? Do you really think they will be left out if they stay in the low 40s and don't improve their record against the top 50?
It is interesting that WSU has played more games against the top 50 and we have a better record against the top 50 than Texas. WSU also has a better record against the top 50 than any team in the Big 12 other than Baylor (we are tied with Texas A&M in winning pct. but they have played more games).Last edited by shockfan89_; April 30, 2012, 06:33 PM.Comment
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I checked last years tournament to see how northern teams fared. All northern teams with a rpi of 52 or better regardless of any other holes in their resumes got an at large bid.
There were at least 5 teams with a rpi of worse than 45 that got an at large bid and some of them were even southern teams:
Jacksonville, rpi #46 (6-7 against the top 50, 12-3 against 201+ teams, so they had 3 bad losses: they finished 2nd in the Atlantic Sun, the #8 conference, the Atlantic Sun ended up with 3 teams in the dance)
Troy #47 (6-5 top 50, 7-0 against 201+, won regular season title in Sun Belt, the Sun Belt also ended up with 3 teams dancing)
St. John's #49 (2-8 against the top 50, 13-3 against 201+ teams, finished 2nd in the Big East, the 11th ranked conference)
K-state #51 (10-15 against the top 50, 15-2 against 201+, finished in 6th place in the big 12)
DBU #52 (7-5 against the top 50, 19-3 against 201+)
DBUs numbers surprised me. Being a southern team I am really surprised they got an at large bid with a rpi of 52. They did have a winning record against the top 50 but that is really the only thing they had going for them as they also played a lot of games against bottom feeders (200+) and even lost 3 of them.
I realize committees change a little from year to year, but most of last year's committee is on this year's committee. So the actions they took last year should give us some insight to what they will find acceptable this year.
Bottom line is that if we can finish with a rpi of 52 or better with our 5-5 record against the top 50 (2-2 against the top 10) and no bad losses we ought to have a shot at an at large bid.Last edited by shox1989; April 30, 2012, 08:38 PM.Comment
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Assuming the above is true, why are people so sure we won't get an at-large bid this year? Is it because the product on the field has appeared similar to the last 2 years when we didn't receive at-large bids? If so, keep in mind our SOS this year is 46th and last year it was 109th and in 2010 it was 125th. To me the biggest concern is the 4th place in the MVC.Last edited by shockfan89_; April 30, 2012, 08:34 PM.Comment
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I agree with you. But if we finish 6-3 or 7-2 rest of the way, we should be in the top 3 which I think should be okay (if our rpi is top 50 and our good record against the top 10 and top 50)Originally posted by shockfan89_ View Post
Also if we do finish 4th then I think we need to get to the championship game of the Valley tourney to have a chance. I am thinking back to 2006 in basketball when the 5th place Valley team Bradley lost in the championship game to #2 SIU and ended up with an at large bid over #3 Missouri St.
If we get to the championship game and our rpi is in the top 50, with our record against the top 10 (2-2) and top 50 (5-5), I think our chances of dancing are good regardless of where we finish in the conference. But we need to finish as high as possible as not to give the committee any excuse to leave us out. Anything worse than 2nd and we definitely give them excuse if they want to leave us out.
On the flip side, a top 50 rpi and a 2nd place finish probably wouldn't save us if we go 0-2 in the Valley tourney.Last edited by shox1989; April 30, 2012, 09:36 PM.Comment
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I'm cautiously optimistic that all of this number crunching is gonna prove meaningless in about 4 weeks.Deuces Valley.
... No really, deuces.
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"Enjoy the ride."
- a smart manComment
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Only one other Valley game actually got played tonight, SIU beat #63 rpi Illinois 7-3. A good road win for the Salukis.Comment
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Valley rpis after tonight's games: MoST #39, WSU #52, Indy St. #55, ISU-R #69, BU #93, SIU #101, UE #116, Cu #198Comment
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Boyd's Word's rpi needs assessment to finish with a rpi of 45 or better as of 8:30 am this morning: MoST 5-5, WSU 8-3, Indy St. 9-2, UE 13-0 (all other Valley teams have fallen off the chart).
DBU: 4-8
Last edited by shox1989; May 2, 2012, 09:48 AM.Comment
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The only game in the Valley tonight is #58 Belmont at UE. Belmont is a potential at large team, a UE win would be nice.Comment
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The Aces got the job done, they beat Belmont 1-0 tonight. That knocks Belmont from #58 in the rpi to #64.Comment
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Other Valley series this weekend: SIU at ISU-R (Go Redbirds!), Cu at Bradley, UE at DBU (after the WAC falls apart, who knows DBU may be in the Valley in the future afterall?), Da Bears play AFA and Ku in Lawrence this weekend.Comment
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