Conference Shake Up 2.0

[SubGod22]

Utah State to MWC?

It's starting to look more and more like the WAC will become a basketball only conference. There's also been some talk that UTSA could receive an invite as well as the MWC would like a presence in Texas. If this goes down, look for the WAC to start inviting DII schools that want to move up. Utah Valley State has long wanted in the WAC. CS-Bakersfield would like a home as well. If this move goes down, USU, the WAC may start inviting nonfootball schools. There's already a threat that the Sun Belt may take a couple of the football playing schools since they're expected to lose a couple to CUSA. I'm not sure if the WAC has much hope for remaining a football conference when all this finally ends.

[SubGod22]

Sounds like the Big East may not be done adding in the West. Fresno to BE for football only? If this goes down, the Big West could be adding another.

[SubGod22]

I've also seen a couple people on message boards mention that UT-Arlington has been looking into starting football... If they go that direction, that could open a few more doors for them down the road.

[SubGod22]

Starting to look like UTSA will find a home in CUSA or MWC. If not, the Sun Belt will be their destination. Apparently they averaged around 35k for football this past season. It's a great market for whoever gets them and there is a lot of upside there.

[Rocky Mountain Shock]

http://www.denverpost.com/colleges/ci_20429138/unlv-president-smatresk-says-mw-c-usa-merger

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/blog/brett-mcmurphy/18623903/conference-usa-mountain-west-merger-unlikely

Confusion reigns...

[SubGod22]

I believe the UAB AD said a few days ago that there are still four options on the table. A full merger of both. A slow merger, starting with football only and eventually moving to all sports. An Alliance with scheduling and TV partnership, but remaining seperate conferences. And staying seperate and rebuilding each individually.

The best we could hope for, if we wanted to be involved in something, is for option 4 or 1 to take place. But option 1 we'd want to stay strictly at a football merger. I think MWC is the only one we could potentially have a shot at if one of those happened. CUSA has tried to nonfootball membership before and don't seem to be fans of it. Maybe the MWC would consider it. They do have a football only member in Hawaii, but sounds like Denver would be the first choice to balance that.

If they stay seperate, the real question is what does UTEP do. Do they switch sides or stay with CUSA. I've heard conflicting reports. I say they move.

MWC could looks something like this....

UNLV
New Mexico
Colorado State
Wyoming
Utah State
UTEP
UTSA
Fresno State
Nevada
Air Force
(Hawaii)
Denver

That gives them 11 in each sport. They'd probably want 12. But that would be another football school and I don't know who that would be. But there's still a chance that Air Force goes to the Big East and talk that Fresno may be on that list as well. I think they could be happy with 10 in football. If they lose one of the above, they could add a nonfootball. If they lose two, that gives them more options. The West is running out of football schools. Some mention Idaho and NMSU, but I don't think anybody in the MWC wants them involved. New Mexico doesn't want NMSU and UTEP has the same market area. Idaho just doesn't bring anything to the table. Say both AFA and FSU leave, my ideal scenario for basketball would be 12 and an east/west split.

West:
Nevada
Utah State
UNLV
New Mexico
San Jose State
San Diego/Long Beach State

East:
UTSA
UTEP
Wichita State
Colorado State
Wyoming
Denver

And you could rotate the tourny between Denver and Vegas

CUSA wants to get back to 12 if they don't merge. Remaining teams, as of now, are UAB, ECU, Marshall, S. Miss, Rice, UTEP, Tulane and Tulsa. I still think UTEP will end up going West, so I'll take them out. They'll go with an East/West split as well.

East:
UAB
ECU
Marshall
S. Miss
FIU
MTSU

West:
Tulane
Tulsa
Rice
North Texas
Western Kentucky
Arkansas State

I think there's some hope that maybe the bring back Charlotte as they're adding football. Been some talk of ODU as well if they have a desire to move up to FBS. Some wonder if they could pull a MAC team like Ohio or Akron in. But I don't think that happens.

I know most would like to go East if at all possible, but I'm not sure CUSA looks better than MWC at this point. And I don't think they'll add a nonfootball school anyway.

The A10 could still shake things up if they reach into either the Valley or CAA.

The Sunbelt is also positioning itself decently.

The WAC may soon be dead as a football conference.

[SubGod22]

Apparently more media reports of GMU and VCU leaving the CAA for the A10. Only links I've seen are to twitter posts and I can't access those from work. The A10 is looking to lose Charlotte, Temple and possibly UMass in the near future because of football. Temple we already know about. Charlotte will probably end up in the Sunbelt in a couple of years and UMass may get into the Big East if Louisville goes to the B12.

After all of that, the A10 would look like this:

Butler
Dayton
Duquesne
Fordham
George Mason
George Washington
LaSalle
Rhode Island
Richmond
St. Bonnaventure
St. Joseph's
St. Louis
Virginia Commonwealth
Xavier

That's a pretty solid conference. They'll be at 16 for the next few seasons and have no reason to need to expand after that. If they like having 16, you could then look to see who they'd add from Bradley, Creighton and Detroit. I think if they went back to 16 at that point, they'd look to the midwest for a nice split of east/west.

East
Fordham
George Mason
George Washington
LaSalle
Rhode Island
Richmond
St. Joseph's
Virginia Commonwealth

West
Butler
Dayton
Duquesne
St. Bonnaventure
St. Louis
Xavier

Detroit and Bradley would fill in the gaps nicely in the West. Creighton would stretch the league a little more, but would be a better addition as far as what they'd bring to the court. Bradley and Detroit bring better markets and a tighter geography. I'm not sure what other teams they'd look at. If they were willing to reach out towards Creighton, then I suppose we could get a shot. Especially if GMU and VCU are added. I figured the A10 would stick with private schools completely but this would say otherwise.

And if this does happen, the CAA takes a big hit. Especially with the thoughts that ODU will be looking to move their football up eventually. An MVC/CAA challenge would also look less desireable. If the GMU/VCU thing happens, I withdraw my support of such a challenge. The A10 isn't going to go for it. The MWC seems to have a new connection with CUSA even if they don't merge. That basically leaves the Horizon and that's not all that desireable for a challenge. If we run out of conferences to match up with, I really hope we look into expansion. I know there aren't any schools that just wow you, but trying to build more strength from within could help. Especially if noncon scheduling continues to be difficult. Without a challenge and with the death of BracketBusters just around the corner, a strong MVC will be needed.

Must look to potential and not just short sided what'd they do last season.

Does Wright State have potential to grow in the MVC? What kind of shape is the AD in? Dayton is a nice market and recruiting pool.

Can Belmont be productive in the MVC even though it's another small private like UE? Could the exposure of a new conference help them flourish? Nashville is a nice market. But could they compete financially?

Does UT-Arlington show any kind of growth that could be expected to continue? Dallas area and Texas have a lot of talent. Does the AD have a plan for success and the financial support to do so?

Would ORU be interested and do we think they could ever become more than they are?

Any chance Little Rock could ever develop more? No football to hold them back. Nice market. Could they grow and compete being in a stronger conference with more exposure?

What kind of shape is Murray State in? Can they continue and grow upon what they've been doing? Is their AD healthy?

What shape is Milwaukee's AD in? They're in a nice market. Do they have the financial ability though?

Green Bay? See Milwaukee. But they haven't been as successful.

Does UIC have room to grow? It'd be another Illinois school but puts the Valley in the heart of Chicago. I've heard good things, but could they be for real? Not an immediate help, but is there potential?

Are there any others that have potential? Some of these schools right now bring more to the table in basketball than others. Are they stable enough financially to keep that up? Would any of the others have more potential with stronger conference affiliation? I don't give a crap about travel. We all enjoy the round robbin format of the conference schedule, but that's going away sooner or later. And if there's any chance of losing a school to another conference I'd rather have already filled that void than wait and see what happens. Even 12 may not be enough down the road.

I don't think it's smart for Elgin to sit on his thumbs and react to a bad situation. We're already in a not so great position. The dream of Butler has died. SLU isn't going to happen. Especially with the addition of Butler to the A10. Elgin and company need to do their research and look at what's out there and who brings what to the table. Most importantly is basketball. That's where this conference gets its exposure and money. They have to bring a strong program with potential to be better. Or, if they happen to be a little weaker than we'd like, have a commitment to building it and show that the resources are there. They have to have good leadership at the top. Financial ability to compete at the top. They don't have to top WSU and CU, but they can't be on par with the likes of Evansville. What market they're in can also be a big factor. As we established before, it's not about a school owning a market, it's about the exposure options in that market. That's why I'm a fan of looking outside of the current footprint and a fan of Milwaukee. At least on the surface.

There simply aren't schools available that immediately come in and compete at the top. But there may be schools that could become such a player in the right circumstances. Those are the ones we need to target and get on board.

[ShockTalk]

Now you're scaring me Sub! :eek-new: :dread: :dejection: :hororr: :nightmare: :disgust: :hopelessness: :disturbed: :nevreness:

If Xavier ever has a chance to be a basketball only in the Big East, they may bolt the A-10.

[SubGod22]

Now you're scaring me Sub! :eek-new: :dread: :dejection: :hororr: :nightmare: :disgust: :hopelessness: :disturbed: :nevreness:

If Xavier ever has a chance to be a basketball only in the Big East, they may bolt the A-10.

I spend too much time reading and thinking about these things. But I am worried about what the future holds. The MVC as is, isn't going to be great. Especially with the financial difficulties of a number of our members. Being stuck in the center of the country isn't a blessing for us or CU when it comes to this.

Some still think the BE will implode with the basketball schools taking the top schools from the A10 to form whatever basketball conference they become. I still don't think that does anything for us.

[SubGod22]

Is all hell about to break loose?

[rrshock]

I wonder if this will affect the mvc in any way?

[SubGod22]

I wonder if this will affect the mvc in any way?

I don't think there's an effect on the Valley until Charlotte and UMass leave. Then I think they'll looke West. Or if they decide to go to 16.

[RoyalShock]

Did I read today that Utah St. and San Jose St. are joining the MWC?

[ShockTalk]

Yup.

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/7871430/utah-state-aggies-san-jose-state-spartans-join-mountain-west-conference-according-report

http://www.mwcconnection.com/2012/4/28/2984033/conference-expansion-mwc-san-jose-state-utah-state

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/765572455/Utah-State-move-to-MWC-could-be-sooner-rather-than-later.html

[SubGod22]

Did I read today that Utah St. and San Jose St. are joining the MWC?

Doesn't surprise me. I believe that gets them to 10. I'd seen some talk of UTEP heading there as well. I think the MWC would like to get into TX. UTSA and UNT are atill awaiting new homes. Both could end up in CUSA