2024 Presidential Election

[Aargh]

Harris had the momentum when Biden dropped out. She had the news media, which Trump typically uses to dominate the national conversation. She didn't do much with that momentum. but she was steadily, but slowly, closing the polling gap.

She's now moved ahead of Trump when the results of all polls are combined. When the latest poll is considered alone, she's opened up a 4 point lead which is significant, but that's just one poll. Trump is still leading in enough swing states to win the electoral college, but his lead in those states is shrinking.

The Dem convention is likely to give her a boost that Trump didn't get from the Repub convention. Then there's the human tendency to want to support a winner, which should give her another boost in the polls.

Trump's lead in AZ and GA is razor thin. If Harris continues her momentum and if those states swing to her, Trump can lose the election. Harris also needs PA, but there are no recent polls in that state showing how it's standing. The most recent polling is a little dated, but showed Trump ahead there.

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/

[Atxshoxfan]

Here is Nate Silvers status of today

poll0808.jpg

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[pinstripers]

I will absolutely vote for Trump, but if he insists on campaigning like Trump, he will lose.

[SB Shock]

5502.jpg

These results should be encouraging to you then - Trump barely behind (during a Kamala bump period) with new polling with favorably trends to Trump.

[C0|dB|00ded]

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/0...-plea-00172983
Arizona Republican becomes first fake elector to plead guilty for role in Trump scheme

"Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes charged the 11 fake electors, as well as several top Trump allies, in a broad indictment in April. Trump himself was not charged in the Arizona case, but he was identified by a state grand jury as an unindicted coconspirator. Trump was also charged federally and in Georgia with felonies arising from his fake elector scheme and other efforts to overturn President Joe Biden’s victory.

Pellegrino’s plea deal is the second victory in the Arizona case in as many days for Mayes, a Democrat. Another one of the 18 defendants, former Trump campaign attorney Jenna Ellis, began cooperating with prosecutors this week in exchange for a deal to dismiss the charges she faced. Ellis similarly cooperated with prosecutors last year in the Georgia case."

I did my (extreme) due diligence on the whole "StOp ThE StEaL" campaign several years ago, looking deeply into individual claims in several districts/states. It was absolute and TOTAL 3rd world B.S.

Now the rooster is finally coming home to roost. Projection at its finest (or worst). Trumpers screeching nonstop about dishonesty and theft when it was them all along attempting to literally piss on the constitution. Thank GOD for Mike Pence.

This country is stronger than anybody could have ever imagined. The future will be brighter. Fear not, freedom WILL prevail. Hopefully commonsense too.

[Kung Wu]

8- He's not pro 2A no matter what he says

Really?

[Atxshoxfan]

These results should be encouraging to you then - Trump barely behind (during a Kamala bump period) with new polling with favorably trends to Trump.

No. My point is that's polls do not predict election outcomes, especially when gaps are so small. Kind of like polls on football, basketball or anything else.

[SB Shock]

No. My point is that's polls do not predict election outcomes,

Polls do "predict" election outcomes, just not accurately sometimes like in 2016. But that is the outlier as the winner has been predicted in 2020, 2012, 2008, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992, 1988, 1984, 1980, 1976, 1972, 1968, 1964...I can keep going.

especially when gaps are so small.

National polls are useful for predicting the winners when the margins are like in 2020. When the national polls are close, like they were in 1960, 2016 and 2020, you have to look at the battleground states. Right now, Trump leads in Pennsylvania by 2% and in Georgia by 1%. That is his path to victory—win the same states as in 2020 and win Georgia and Pennsylvania.

Trump has some additional padding, with a 1.5% lead in Arizona and almost 4% lead in Nevada. These polls predict that Trump is going to win the election as of August 9, 2024.

If these polls hold strong for Trump you will start seeing democrats heads explode, especially when they realize their antisemitism cause them to lose the election by not taking Shapiro as VP.

Kind of like polls on football, basketball or anything else.

Actually, no. The polls in football, basketball, and baseball are based on subjective opinions, while political polling has a statistical basis.
Now, Kenpom and Barttorvik are similar to political polling in that they have the statistical predictive ability to predict winners.

[Atxshoxfan]

So I guess we don't need elections. Just do a few pills and average them out.

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

Polls do "predict" election outcomes, just not accurately sometimes like in 2016. But that is the outlier as the winner has been predicted in 2020, 2012, 2008, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992, 1988, 1984, 1980, 1976, 1972, 1968, 1964...I can keep going.



National polls are useful for predicting the winners when the margins are like in 2020. When the national polls are close, like they were in 1960, 2016 and 2020, you have to look at the battleground states. Right now, Trump leads in Pennsylvania by 2% and in Georgia by 1%. That is his path to victory—win the same states as in 2020 and win Georgia and Pennsylvania.

Trump has some additional padding, with a 1.5% lead in Arizona and almost 4% lead in Nevada. These polls predict that Trump is going to win the election as of August 9, 2024.

If these polls hold strong for Trump you will start seeing democrats heads explode, especially when they realize their antisemitism cause them to lose the election by not taking Shapiro as VP.



Actually, no. The polls in football, basketball, and baseball are based on subjective opinions, while political polling has a statistical basis.
Now, Kenpom and Barttorvik are similar to political polling in that they have the statistical predictive ability to predict winners.

The variable here is the integrity of those doing the polling.

[Kung Wu]

Sure, the final polls in the days right before the election are probably near perfect, but the polls in months leading up to the race?

August
---
Aug 2000 - Bush
Aug 10 2004 - Kerry
Aug 10 2008 - Obama
Aug 2012 - Obama
Aug 2016 - Clinton
Aug 2020 - Biden
-- 4 of 6 correct - 66% accurate

September
---
Sep 2000 - Gore
Sep 10 2004 - Bush
Sep 10 2008 - McCain
Sep 10 2012 - Obama
Sep 2016 - Clinton
Sep 10 2020 - Biden
-- 3 of 6 correct - 50% accurate

October
---
Oct 2000 - Bush
Oct 10 2004 - Bush
Oct 10 2008 - Obama
Oct 10 2012 - Romney
Oct 10 2016 - Clinton
Oct 10 2020 - Biden
-- 4 of 6 correct - 66% accurate

[pinstripers]

Can we argue about something else? Didja ever notice that practically the entire cast of Murder She Wrote wears wigs?

[SB Shock]

The variable here is the integrity of those doing the polling.

Very true. There are pollsters who try to shape their results for public opinion.

If I am interested in a poll or see a poll with weird results, I will go and read the poll questions to see if they are serious pollster.

[SB Shock]

Sure, the final polls in the days right before the election are probably near perfect, but the polls in months leading up to the race?

August
---
Aug 2000 - Bush
Aug 10 2004 - Kerry
Aug 10 2008 - Obama
Aug 2012 - Obama
Aug 2016 - Clinton
Aug 2020 - Biden
-- 4 of 6 correct - 66% accurate

September
---
Sep 2000 - Gore
Sep 10 2004 - Bush
Sep 10 2008 - McCain
Sep 10 2012 - Obama
Sep 2016 - Clinton
Sep 10 2020 - Biden
-- 3 of 6 correct - 50% accurate

October
---
Oct 2000 - Bush
Oct 10 2004 - Bush
Oct 10 2008 - Obama
Oct 10 2012 - Romney
Oct 10 2016 - Clinton
Oct 10 2020 - Biden
-- 4 of 6 correct - 66% accurate

That is why you have a campaign - to try and change people's opinions.

[SB Shock]

Can we argue about something else? Didja ever notice that practically the entire cast of Murder She Wrote wears wigs?

Well there is the UK police commissioner who is threatening to extradite Americans for making fun of the Brits for jailing people for negative facebook post instead of Muslim sex predator who said he didn't know it was illegal to rape 13 year old girls and received community service