2022 Mid-Term Election

[WuDrWu]

It's tough to find Trafalgar polls (recent ones at least) but the ones I could find almost all show the Republican candidate in the lead. Kelly still leads (barely) in AZ. There is a recent (last 7 days) where they show the NY Gov race tied, and that's a Trafalgar poll that asked 54% Dems and only 28% GOP. In New York. Tied.

[pinstripers]

Perhaps the transgender voting bloc is not as large as they thought

[Shockm]

It's tough to find Trafalgar polls (recent ones at least) but the ones I could find almost all show the Republican candidate in the lead. Kelly still leads (barely) in AZ. There is a recent (last 7 days) where they show the NY Gov race tied, and that's a Trafalgar poll that asked 54% Dems and only 28% GOP. In New York. Tied.

Yes. I had trouble finding a Trafalgar poll done in mid to late October.

[1972Shocker]

[WuDrWu]

On 538, Republicans are now edging out Democrats 51 to 49: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...recast/senate/

Basically every poll that comes out makes things look worse for the Dems. The afternoon update from 538 is not 53/47 GOP. (% of chances, not number of seats).

[Kung Wu]

Basically every poll that comes out makes things look worse for the Dems. The afternoon update from 538 is not 53/47 GOP. (% of chances, not number of seats).

Wow.

[Kung Wu]

Basically every poll that comes out makes things look worse for the Dems. The afternoon update from 538 is not 53/47 GOP. (% of chances, not number of seats).

Whoa. Herschel Walker now 55-45 against Raphael Warnock in Georgia: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...enate/georgia/

That is a stunning reversal of where he was just two weeks ago.

[WuDrWu]

55-45 GOP likely Senate, 85-15 House per 538 tonight.

[pinstripers]

The Democrats are screaming to the rooftops that if they are voted out of power, that is the end of Democracy. Actually, if the party in power is voted out, it's the very definition of Democracy.........

[WuDrWu]

Things continue to worsen for the DEMs.

Real Clear Politics now has it 48-44 GOP (in terms of actual leaning-decided seats) and 8 toss ups, adding New Hampshire, Washington and Colorado to the mix.

The Dems will have to win 6 of those 8 (Ga, Pa, NH, Az, Co, Wa, Nv & Wi are their 8) and they are arguably behind and heading the wrong way in at least 3 (Wi, Nv & Ga).

[1972Shocker]

The GOP has really done well in putting up some great Ladies as candidates this year. Obviously, Kari Lake is the Queen of this brigade but others are not far behind. For example, Tudor Dixon running against Gretch the Wretch in Michigan in the gubernatorial race.

[Kung Wu]

Things continue to worsen for the DEMs.

Real Clear Politics now has it 48-44 GOP (in terms of actual leaning-decided seats) and 8 toss ups, adding New Hampshire, Washington and Colorado to the mix.

The Dems will have to win 6 of those 8 (Ga, Pa, NH, Az, Co, Wa, Nv & Wi are their 8) and they are arguably behind and heading the wrong way in at least 3 (Wi, Nv & Ga).

I don' t see where WA is in play at all. Fox is saying they are, but Smiley is nowhere in the conversation according to 538. I'm confused.

[WuDrWu]

I don' t see where WA is in play at all. Fox is saying they are, but Smiley is nowhere in the conversation according to 538. I'm confused.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/wa/washington_senate_smiley_vs_murray-7400.html

[WuDrWu]

Patty Murray clearly leads, but she's an entitled politician that's been in the Senate for 30 years. That's ridiculous. She has very little enthusiasm from the voters and Smiley has run a strong race. It's unlikely, especially in Washington, but you never know. Smiley has been gaining fast of late and if there is a low turnout in Seattle......who knows. I don't think it's a toss up, but it's close.

[Kung Wu]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...rray-7400.html

I'm not sure what I was looking at on 538, because on second look it's similar to rcp's take. Interesting.