2022 Mid-Term Election

[Shockm]

Brownback is absolutely the reason that Kelly got elected the first time.

I will admit that I voted for Kelly over Kobach last time. Kobach was a very bad Governor candidate (like Brownback he was wrapped up in his "principles" and unbendable), especially after Brownback. I actually liked Colyer. He was more moderate than Brownback even though he was his Lieutenant Governor. Colyer was willing to move toward the middle, while Brownback had his "principles" and would not move from them, even when things were going into the "crapper".

I also agree that she hasn't done as bad as I thought she would. She has stood up to Biden on states rights during covid. That surprised me a quite a bit.

Kelly changed course on some things when the State legislature (on opening up schools in fall of 2020) threatened her with laws to overcome her State Executive powers with laws. She also moved away from closing churches in the summer of 2020 after being threatened with a law suit over First Amendment Freedoms. I think that this went against her "bent" toward national liberalism. Unfettered abortion until birth is another POV of Kelly, and she likely would veto any limitation by our State Legislators.

To Kelly's credit, she recognized that her powers came with limitations. However, if you follow the laws passed by the Kansas legislatures, there are moderates that limit Conservatives. When the law was passed to limit boys from competing against girls, the law passed convincingly. However, Kelly didn't go with the POV's of an overwhelming number of Kansans. She vetoed it, showing her liberal roots.

[SB Shock]

Two weeks later, Senate Odds drop to 35% for Republicans. Still a Dem 51, Rep 49.

House is now 78% for the Republicans. Republicans look to get 220 for sure, with 12 seats being tossups. The Generic ballot looks really bad for the republicans - but not sure it means anything, because NY is not voting for Kansas.


Biden popularity had hit a all time low at 37.5% in mid-July, but now has continued to climb to average of 41.9% (w/latest polls at 41-44%).

Now it will be interesting if the student loan fiasco wakes up people

Projection for the Senate remains the same as 3 weeks ago, still a Dem 51, Rep 49. Odds have further dropped to 29% for Republicans.

House is projected 226 Republican, to 209. Republican odds are 71%

Biden popularity continues to climb - up to 42.6% approve.

Democrats have taken the lead on generic ballot. Overall Democrats are feeling better, but everything is so close that if there is errors baked into the polling the Republican could surprise on election night (29% is low, but still represents strong uncertainty for both the house and senate).

[SubGod22]

I've always hated generic ballots. It just goes to show that the individual running matters very little to so many.

Of course, it also keeps discussion of other options behind the curtain, which is where they want it, but even if others were generally included, I'd still hate the generic letter polls. I've been involved with them in the past and simply refuse to answer for either side, even if 3rd party is an option. Without names and actual platforms or history of voting, it matters not at all to me.

[ShockerPrez]

No idea how 42% of the country could seriously approve of Biden's job. These people are not being honest with themselves. I can see why Trump's #s could be low because he was so abrasive. But the country was in such a good position before the commies leaked a virus and the left took the opportunity to destroy the economy. Now, the country is doing horribly, people are struggling, and the admin continues to double down on misery based completely on leftist political ideology. If you enjoy paying more for things to fulfill your woke feelings, more power to you, I guess. I suppose that's why it's always better to be a leftist.

When your side is in power, your leftist agenda gets advanced and you are too stupid to care that you get soaked.

If your opponents are in power, you still win, because you will be freer and more prosperous (if you want to be). And you get to feel like you matter as you fight the power that wants to control the government.

[Shockm]

Projection for the Senate remains the same as 3 weeks ago, still a Dem 51, Rep 49. Odds have further dropped to 29% for Republicans.

House is projected 226 Republican, to 209. Republican odds are 71%

Biden popularity continues to climb - up to 42.6% approve.

Democrats have taken the lead on generic ballot. Overall Democrats are feeling better, but everything is so close that if there is errors baked into the polling the Republican could surprise on election night (29% is low, but still represents strong uncertainty for both the house and senate).

Beware of the polls. I don’t trust them anymore. Dems are often over estimated in present day polling.

[SB Shock]

I've always hated generic ballots. It just goes to show that the individual running matters very little to so many.

Of course, it also keeps discussion of other options behind the curtain, which is where they want it, but even if others were generally included, I'd still hate the generic letter polls. I've been involved with them in the past and simply refuse to answer for either side, even if 3rd party is an option. Without names and actual platforms or history of voting, it matters not at all to me.

Everybody wants to kick the other guy in the next state out of the office, but are unwilling to kick their own guy/girl out.

[Shockm]

A pretty effective advertisement regarding Gov. Kelly’s trans gender vetoes. Hard to defend Kelly’s stance imo.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gcPopXi-qQo

[SB Shock]

Beware of the polls. I don’t trust them anymore. Dems are often over estimated in present day polling.

Much like the AP and Coaches polls.

The points to remember about polling is:

1. It is a point in time.

2. Any poll you are interested in, look at the "actual" of the poll data. This will tell you:
a. If there is Biases in the question
b. Support by party, and how they are weighting each party support. See if the weighting is believable.

3. Don't cherry pick a poll, there is a distribution within polling data. Watch for trends

4. Select a pollster you trust. They all have track records.

5. Use at site like the following that do the statistical work for you

https://fivethirtyeight.com/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map.html

6. You can always add 4% if you think there is a Trump effect.

[Shockm]

A pretty effective advertisement regarding Gov. Kelly’s trans gender vetoes. Hard to defend Kelly’s stance imo.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gcPopXi-qQo

This is Riley Gaines story who is the female swimmer on the advertisement. Her testimony on being forced to share a locker with a biological male, and the male taking a championship from a biological female was effective.

https://www.iwf.org/save-womens-sports-riley-gaines/

[Shockm]

Much like the AP and Coaches polls.

The points to remember about polling is:

1. It is a point in time.

2. Any poll you are interested in, look at the "actual" of the poll data. This will tell you:
a. If there is Biases in the question
b. Support by party, and how they are weighting each party support. See if the weighting is believable.

3. Don't cherry pick a poll, there is a distribution within polling data. Watch for trends

4. Select a pollster you trust. They all have track records.

5. Use at site like the following that do the statistical work for you

https://fivethirtyeight.com/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tions-map.html


6. You can always add 4% if you think there is a Trump effect.

You are probably right. I just remember the election in 2020, and how off polls were. The Clear Politics Consensus Poll which puts them all together, predicted a Democrat landslide. Almost all of the polls were way off. This article describes it. Whether it's been corrected, or if it was just a Trumpian phenomenon, I do not know. But you obviously know your polling, so maybe polls can be trusted again. Some of your advice is in this article, but there are a few other tidbits. Those polls jaded me, and I now look at polls differently.

https://nypost.com/article/the-real-...again-in-2020/

Why election polls were so wrong again in 2020

Smaller, and Conservative leaning pollsters were much closer to the final results than many others. Those pollsters blamed it on the "group think" of the mainline pollster groups.

[ABC]

Brownback is absolutely the reason that Kelly got elected the first time.

Ummmm, Kobach had a lot to do with it too.

[SB Shock]

You are probably right. I just remember the election in 2020, and how off polls were. The Clear Politics Consensus Poll which puts them all together, predicted a Democrat landslide. Almost all of the polls were way off. [/B]

Largest turnout of any presidential election. Largest turnout of any Voter Eligible Population - 66%. In general it only runs around Mid to upper 50%. When you are adding that many more votes, there is going to be more error in how they weight their results. Then there is also the other hypothesis that Trump voters are less likely to answer the phone.

[Shockm]

Well, this poll says that the Governor's race is practically even.

https://www.kansas.com/news/politics...266109836.html

Right wing Conservative Dennis Pyle could throw a monkey wrench into this race. He left the Republican Party recently to run, and has said that both Schmidt and Kelly are too liberal. I guess he doesn't buy into the Brownback scenario who was very financially Conservative.

State Sen. Dennis Pyle, a former Republican running as an independent candidate, has 3% support. Pyle has been portraying both Kelly and Schmidt as too liberal — likely drawing more support from the Republican candidate than the Democrat in the lead up to the Nov. 8 election.

Read more at: https://www.kansas.com/news/politics...#storylink=cpy

[rrshock]

Ummmm, Kobach had a lot to do with it too.

I agree. I used Brownback as the example because they were all tied to him.

[shox1989]

No idea how 42% of the country could seriously approve of Biden's job. These people are not being honest with themselves. I can see why Trump's #s could be low because he was so abrasive. But the country was in such a good position before the commies leaked a virus and the left took the opportunity to destroy the economy. Now, the country is doing horribly, people are struggling, and the admin continues to double down on misery based completely on leftist political ideology. If you enjoy paying more for things to fulfill your woke feelings, more power to you, I guess. I suppose that's why it's always better to be a leftist.

When your side is in power, your leftist agenda gets advanced and you are too stupid to care that you get soaked.

If your opponents are in power, you still win, because you will be freer and more prosperous (if you want to be). And you get to feel like you matter as you fight the power that wants to control the government.

I will make 3 points. First in general a number of people like a President who is somewhat boring and not being so abrasive. They like the change from Trump.

2. And more important, I think. When I talk to my liberal friends and talk about how high inflation is, they say things like gas prices and inflation are actually lower in the USA than in most of the developed world. So they give credit to Biden for in their minds keeping gas prices and inflation lower than it could be. They also talk about how wages are up and unemployment is down.

3. Again some of my liberal friends like some of the things that that Biden has done like the $10,000 student loan forgiveness and getting a big infrastructure bill passed.

So I can see his approval ratings in the 40s. We have a very divided country.