2022 Mid-Term Election

[1972Shocker]

In any case, it would appear that Sarah Palin is not that popular in Alaska and, as I said, not sure why anyone would expect a different result 2 months from now.

[SubGod22]

Again, that depends on what the turnout was like for the special election. There's bound to be more voters in November. That could always change things, but is no guarantee.

I still wish more states did ranked choice. Currently, only Alaska and Maine use it as a statewide option. A number of cities use it for local elections.

The Democrats use it in five states for primaries, including Kansas.

Utah has a lot of local elections done this way. I wouldn't be surprised to see it adopted at the state level in the near future.

[shoxlax]

Does anybody but me think Kelly will get a second term?

[SubGod22]

Does anybody but me think Kelly will get a second term?

I think she had a good chance at a 2nd term. I'm still not a fan, but she hasn't been near as bad as I expected and has had some positives she can use. Schmidt may still be too closely tied to Brownback, who left a bad taste in a lot of voters mouths.

It will be an interesting race.

[1972Shocker]

Does anybody but me think Kelly will get a second term?

I think she has a good chance. I agree with SubGod22 that Schmidt is too closely tied to Brownback. The same may be true for Kobach in the Attorney General's race. I did vote for Schmidt in the primary because there were no decent alternatives but I don't think Schmidt is a good candidate. I did not vote for Kobach. Thought their were two other better candidates. I voted for Kellie Warren.

Looks like Kansas my be turning purple. But we have actually had quite a few Democrat governors in my lifetime for a supposedly red state.

[Shockm]

Does anybody but me think Kelly will get a second term?

I think it's going to be close, and she may be the favorite. I would say both candidates are middling moderates which Kansas pretty much likes.

>She's been trying to portray Schmidt as an extremist tying him in with Brownback. Do you think she has been successful? If she has been, this is in her favor.
>There are no hot button issues like abortion on the ballot. This may hurt her large city Kansas City/Topeka, and to a lesser extent Wichita turnout some.
>Rural Kansas won't be her strength.

However, her POV on national issues (some state issues too) definitely side with Biden in most cases.

>She voted against the Education Trans-gender athlete ban which would have not allowed boys to participate as girls in athletics, passed by the legislature. This will hurt her in rural areas mostly, and maybe in suburban Wichita. It may not hurt her in Kansas City.

>She voted against the legislature on the Education Bill of Rights. I would think this would hurt her more in rural areas.

> Economically, since Biden was elected, the Kansas small (maybe some larger too) oil companies have dried up. She has never been critical of Biden's green issues. Kansas used to have quite a few oil wells still pumping that don't anymore. Quite a number small oil companies who have closed their doors because they could no longer make any money. In fact Biden has sent Gov. Kelly federal stimulus money to plug any oil wells we still have. This will hurt her in rural areas too.

Maybe you have other controversial issues for either candidate, but I can't think of anymore.

Kobach has been branded as extreme for sure in the past, and I'm not sure he can get away from that.

I'd like to hear why (specific issues/reasons) you think she will for sure, win.

[WuDrWu]

Where are you referencing your statistics on small oil companies closing shop? And what kind of companies? Producers, drillers, transporters, refineries?

[Shockm]

Where are you referencing your statistics on small oil companies closing shop? And what kind of companies? Producers, drillers, transporters, refineries?

I had just saw that almost all oil wells were no longer, when I drove through the country, and had heard that many closed, but here is some information I found quickly. I also heard on the news that Biden had sent money to Kelly to plug the oil wells.

Here is some information on it.

https://www.hppr.org/hppr-news/2022-...e-is-no-spigot

Small oil Kansas companies cut as much as a quarter of their employees in the lean days of 2020, Cross said. Those are skilled, technical, often physically demanding jobs, so staffing up again is another major hurdle.

“It’s a busy time and we're seeing production starting to recover, but we're a long way from where we were before the COVID pandemic,” Cross said.

In Kansas, production is down almost 16% from 2019, when gas and oil prices were much lower. It’s hard to predict how long it will take just to get back to 2019 domestic oil production levels, but most of the experts say that won’t happen until next year, at best.

[SubGod22]

According to the headlines I've seen in the WBJ, oil in Kansas has been doing pretty well, including increased rig counts and permits. I may have to go back and read them, as I didn't initially, but they've had a couple of articles about it in the past month or so.

[Shockm]

According to the headlines I've seen in the WBJ, oil in Kansas has been doing pretty well, including increased rig counts and permits. I may have to go back and read them, as I didn't initially, but they've had a couple of articles about it in the past month or so.

Here is one on oil bankruptcies in 2020.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/2020-The-Year-Of-The-Oil-Bankruptcies.html

[SubGod22]

WBJ - List analysis: Higher oil prices powering increase in Kansas rig counts, permits

According to Independent Oil & Gas Service, Inc., as of Aug. 4, Kansas' 58 active drilling rigs marked a 70.6% increase from the same week a year ago. The Kansas Corporation Commission has also issued 967 drilling permits so far in 2022 — 390 more than at the same point of 2021.

"I think people are more emboldened to look for more production," said Klee Watchous, president of Newton's Palomino Petroleum.

Sounds like the only thing holding back local oil companies is workforce numbers.

Of course they struggled during the pandemic when demand went way, way down. And some have still struggled, mostly due to inflation and the supply side issues they face. But the environment for them to succeed seems to be there, and some are thriving.

[WuDrWu]

Those articles reference generic business issues. Over-extended on debt and the market tanks short term. Certainly the oil industry is more volatile than say the coffee industry. It's hardly unusual to shut down pumps when the price is low. Unless you're saddled with incredible debt where you have to get all the revenue you can, you wait for the price to recover. And as SubGod22 said, workforce issues are not unique to the oil industry. That being said, if you can't turn a profit this year in the oil field, you probably should look elsewhere for business opportunities.

[SHOCKvalue]

Does anybody but me think Kelly will get a second term?

I think Kelly is a lightweight enough dem that she is palatable to a large percentage of Kansans - dems (obviously), independents, and RINO's. And they're doing a pretty good job portraying Schmidt as a Brownback/Trump sort of figure, which plays into the previous sentence very well. So yeah, I'd be surprised a bit if she didn't get a second term.

Not that I'm wishing she does, just stating the logical case.

[WuDrWu]

I think Kelly is a lightweight enough dem that she is palatable to a large percentage of Kansans - dems (obviously), independents, and RINO's. And they're doing a pretty good job portraying Schmidt as a Brownback/Trump sort of figure, which plays into the previous sentence very well. So yeah, I'd be surprised a bit if she didn't get a second term.

Not that I'm wishing she does, just stating the logical case.

This. The right is going to have to find a way to counter the anti-Trump/Maga hit squad out there. They are getting bludgeoned to death and really the only successful counter so far was Trump in 2016. That's a problem.

There's also a fair point (I believe) that a stalemate isn't the worse thing. What's almost as bad as an all DEM political landscape? An all GOP one. Neither group seems capable of handling unfettered power. The KS House and Senate aren't changing anytime soon, so keeping the Gov. Dem creates a bit of a clash that keeps either group from getting out of hand.

I do have to admit Kelly has not been as bad as I thought she'd be, but that bar was impossibly low. Breathing on her own cleared my expectation. And there's zero chance I'm voting for her.

[rrshock]

This. The right is going to have to find a way to counter the anti-Trump/Maga hit squad out there. They are getting bludgeoned to death and really the only successful counter so far was Trump in 2016. That's a problem.

There's also a fair point (I believe) that a stalemate isn't the worse thing. What's almost as bad as an all DEM political landscape? An all GOP one. Neither group seems capable of handling unfettered power. The KS House and Senate aren't changing anytime soon, so keeping the Gov. Dem creates a bit of a clash that keeps either group from getting out of hand.

I do have to admit Kelly has not been as bad as I thought she'd be, but that bar was impossibly low. Breathing on her own cleared my expectation. And there's zero chance I'm voting for her.

I think many Kansans believe that having the super majority in both the house and senate needs or should be countered by a Dem governor. Or at least a very moderate Republican.

Brownback is absolutely the reason that Kelly got elected the first time. I also agree that she hasn't done as bad as I thought she would. She has stood up to Biden on states rights during covid. That surprised me a quite a bit. I'm not sure she is near the democrat that many think she is. She is honestly closer to the moderate Republicans that controlled Kansas for so long.

That being said, I'm not sure I would vote for her. This all comes down to how Schmidt actually handles things in the coming weeks.