Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[wsushox1]

I don’t believe the possibility of attaining the virus is deadlier than entering your vehicle.

I don't think that is quite right.

If you are over the age of 75, the conservative death rate for COVID-19 is 4%. That's 4 out of 100 or 1 in 25 odds of surviving. Your odds of dying in a car wreck are roughly 1 in 100 (per several sources) - but those are LIFETIME odds. If you were to narrow it down to a single event: catching coronavirus once or entering your vehicle once. Catching COVID-19 is considerably deadlier.

[Kung Wu]

That chaart ish todal bullshits *hic* I dranck waaaay more dan fifity bottlesh of wishkey, and i ain ded yet *hic*

[Shockm]

I don't think that is quite right.

If you are over the age of 75, the conservative death rate for COVID-19 is 4%. That's 4 out of 100 or 1 in 25 odds of surviving. Your odds of dying in a car wreck are roughly 1 in 100 (per several sources) - but those are LIFETIME odds. If you were to narrow it down to a single event: catching coronavirus once or entering your vehicle once. Catching COVID-19 is considerably deadlier.

I am not over the age of 75. However, I breathlessly this morning, entered my vehicle both to and from my intended destination. Each time I entered my vehicle and closed my door, I was still alive. I found out that entering my vehicle was not that dangerous.

[1972Shocker]

The more I think about it, the more I believe my honest answer to your question is yes. Easily so. It is simple math. 50 people have died in Kansas from the virus; we have a population of 2.9 million. If someone hands me a revolver with a 58,000 round capacity and tells me one of those chambers has round in it and I can either give it a try at 1:58000 odds and go on with my life, or take the "safe" bet and see my career and life savings disappear guess which one I'm choosing.

That rate and odds could increase by ten times and I still wouldn't bat an eye with the same response. It could increase by another ten fold and I still think my answer is the same - that's still 1:580. At 1000 times more lethality than current.

The proportional math of this entire thing is completely ignored in the media - both sides. Because calming people with math doesn't sell ads or generate page counts. Rational thought doesn't circulate in the hyperbolic, emotional, and irrational types who populate the media class either. It's likewise ignored by the government, because a calmed and rational public is not so easily lead around like cattle. In no country is this virus statistically relevant. The numbers are TINY when observed on a per capita basis. Absolutely tiny.

In Sedgwick County, we have had 172 cases. Out of over 500K people. Only 30 of those cases required hospitalization. Just two people in SG CO have died from this. TWO. If you told someone a year ago those numbers, and then told them we were in the midst of economic seppeku because of it they would assume you were describing some sort of a dark humor SNL skit.

Shouldn't you be comparing the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths that would have occurred had the extreme steps to mitigate had not been taken? The problem is we don't really know what those numbers would be or would have been. Maybe we never know for sure. But I think it's clear they would be very significantly higher that what we have experienced to date. How we fare over the long term if COVID-19 becomes seasonal remains to be seen but we so much more advanced scientifically these days it makes sense to buy time to be able to develop treatments and solutions which would be difficult if the system is overwhelmed..

What we do know I think is that we may only have the ability to take such extreme action 1 time and for how much longer is hard to say. If we are back in this same situation in the relatively near future we may not have enough in reserve to do this again. We may yet find out that was already true this time around. Hopefully, the course we have chosen to follows proves to be the wise choice and we have bought enough time to successfully deal with this pandemic and overcome it. We have to take care that the medicine is not worse than the disease.

[SHOCKvalue]

Shouldn't you be comparing the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths that would have occurred had the extreme steps to mitigate had not been taken? The problem is we don't really know what those numbers would be or would have been. Maybe we never know for sure. But I think it's clear they would be very significantly higher that what we have experienced to date. How we fare over the long term if COVID-19 becomes seasonal remains to be seen but we so much more advanced scientifically these days it makes sense to buy time to be able to develop treatments and solutions which would be difficult if the system is overwhelmed..

What we do know I think is that we may only have the ability to take such extreme action 1 time and for how much longer is hard to say. If we are back in this same situation in the relatively near future we may not have enough in reserve to do this again. We may yet find out that was already true this time around. Hopefully, the course we have chosen to follows proves to be the wise choice and we have bought enough time to successfully deal with this pandemic and overcome it. We have to take care that the medicine is not worse than the disease.

But have the steps really been that extreme? I would hazard that at least 50% of the population is deemed "essential" and still working. I am. Literally no changes in what I do on a daily basis, and not by my choice. The percentage at home has certainly put a hit on the economy for sure, but I don't know if the measures are really "extreme". The economic expenses certainly could be.

You bring up a fine point though in that we will never know what would have happened had we let it run a more uninterrupted course. Hospitals would have admittedly been over-stressed, but otherwise I would still argue the numbers would be statistically irrelevant. Not saying lives aren't important, but we do things every day that have a risk and fatality rate. There's an entire career field that basically statistically judges the value of a human life; they're called actuaries. Math nerds.

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

State of Louisiana officially launching an inquiry to figure out why African-Americans are 60% of the deaths in a state with 30% African-American population.

My buddy works for State Dept of Health, offered to tell them for 1/10th the cost (aka his salary) but the politicians had pockets to line.

So I am telling you: 70% of cases in New Orleans. 70% of population in New Orleans is African-American.

[wsushox1]

I am not over the age of 75. However, I breathlessly this morning, entered my vehicle both to and from my intended destination. Each time I entered my vehicle and closed my door, I was still alive. I found out that entering my vehicle was not that dangerous.

Woah dude isn’t being breathless a symptom of the ‘rona?!?! ;)

[Shockm]

Woah dude isn’t being breathless a symptom of the ‘rona?!?! ;)

Lol

[RoyalShock]

The likelihood of dying from any number of everyday choices and common diseases:

https://blog.timesunion.com/healthca...of-dying/2515/

The likelihood of dying from the common flu is 1:9410.

It has been said that the coronavirus is something like ten times more lethal than the common flu. That's 1:941. Here are the things more likely to kill you than the coronavirus, per the article above:

Heart disease	631,636	1 in 6
Cancer	562,875	1 in 7
Smoking-related deaths	433,000	1 in 9
Stroke	135,952	1 in 28
Obesity-related	112,000	1 in 35
Heavy drinking	79,000	1 in 49
Breast cancer	40,598	1 in 95
Prostate cancer	29,093	1 in 133
Fall	22,631	1 in 171
Assault	18,361	1 in 211
Brain tumor	13,000	1 in 298
Car accident	12,772	1 in 303
Skin cancer	8,461	1 in 457
Pedestrian accident	5,958	1 in 649
Motorcycle accident	5,024	1 in 770

I find the flu deaths (411 in 2007) a little curious, given that according to the CDC yearly deaths in the US since 2010 range between 12000 and 61000.

[wufan]

State of Louisiana officially launching an inquiry to figure out why African-Americans are 60% of the deaths in a state with 30% African-American population.

My buddy works for State Dept of Health, offered to tell them for 1/10th the cost (aka his salary) but the politicians had pockets to line.

So I am telling you: 70% of cases in New Orleans. 70% of population in New Orleans is African-American.

U.S. black populations suffer from heart disease and diabetes at a much higher rate than other populations.

Also, Corona means “crown”, and everyone knows that the Eurocentric world used imperialistic colonialism to enslave Africans. Therefore the racist nature of infection was brought about by Whitey to reinforce cultural segregation and to disenfranchise our POC and LGBTQ allies.

[pinstripers]

https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530092711-roseland-hospital-phlebotomist-30-of-those-tested-have-coronavirus-antibody

[wufan]

https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/...virus-antibody

Amazing if true. I’m guessing; not true. Phlebotomy is a certificate program, so this is the same as learning building code laws from a realtor.

[JVShocker]

https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/...virus-antibody

I can believe this. Doesn't mean I won't continue precautions.

[wsushox1]

I can believe this. Doesn't mean I won't continue precautions.

Why are you so apt to believe this? Things working against this story:

1. Patients tested for the Coronavirus typically don’t get blood drawn. Certainly not those at a drive through clinic mentioned here.
2. You can’t test antibodies without getting blood drawn.
3. Very, very few labs are running antibody tests. Ones that are are at Research/University labs
4. Phlebotomists draw blood, not run labs and likely aren’t privy to any results.

Odds are good this is a complete fabrication.

[JVShocker]

If its a fabrication, fine. I believe the virus had been circulating prior to a first confirmed test. That's all. Keep safe everyone. Ps...I would rather argue about the play of our post players than this stupid virus. If we could get back to basketball this fall I'll be super happy.