Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[Kung Wu]

1 person will infect 9 people where with the flu 1-2 people are infected.

Where are you getting this fact?

[1972Shocker]

RedHill Biopharma Announces Approval of Compassionate Use of Opaganib for COVID-19 in Italy

https://shockernet.net/forum/miscell...19-ncov/page24

Hope this works for those very advanced cases that will be able to use this. Now this is not a 60 year old drug that is being used off-lable.

This is a drug that has only completed Phase 1 human trials (limited trials focused on safety). Usually a medicine is still a couple years away form approval at this point. Italy pushing the envelope on this one but let's see how it goes.

Opaganib, a new chemical entity, is a proprietary, first-in-class, orally-administered, sphingosine kinase-2 (SK2) selective inhibitor with anticancer, anti-viral and anti-inflammatory activities, targeting multiple oncology, inflammatory and gastrointestinal indications. Pre-clinical data have demonstrated both anti-viral and anti-inflammatory activities of opaganib, with the potential to reduce lung inflammatory disorders, such as pneumonia, and mitigate pulmonary fibrotic damage.

Opaganib has undergone a Phase 1 clinical study in patients with advanced solid tumors and is currently being investigated, individually and in combination with hydroxychloroquine, in a Phase 1/2a study in advanced cholangiocarcinoma (bile duct cancer), and in a Phase 2 study in prostate cancer.

[ShockerFever]

It's possible to have been the sickest you ever been and it was the flu. The flu isn't a joke either. You can get mild cases and severe cases. It's very similar.

While I tended to agree that it was plausible the virus could have been infecting people silently as early as January, because everyone knows the first reported case in a country doesn't mean it wasn't here for a while already, we just didn't know about it and/or test for it. However, the fact that we hadn't seen a sudden rise in ICU visits (that I know of) in late January or February in the country really kills your point. If it was here already by mid-January, we would have had a huge rise in hospital visits and deaths in the February timeframe. I don't have statistics on that but that didn't happen I'm sure. We know there are millions in this country that have it or have had it (not 350,000 lol). Testing continues to be an issue.

The antibody testing would really help solve these squabbles going on here in this forum. Unfortunately, who knows how long it'll take to produce enough tests to make a dent in the data.

[wufan]

Premises being true is a test of soundness, not validity. The argument is still valid.

"If a deductive argument is valid, that means the reasoning process behind the inferences is correct and there are no fallacies. If the premises of such an argument are true, then it is impossible for the conclusion not to be true. Conversely, if an argument is invalid, then the reasoning process behind the inferences is not correct.

If a deductive argument is sound, that means that not only are all the inferences true, but the premises are also true."

You’re correct. Your argument isn’t sound. My apologies.

[Shockm]

Where are you getting this fact?

It was the first or second week of March by an infectious disease expert on a news program (around the time they cancelled the AAC tourney in Ft. Worth so I couldn't go). I watched the news quite a lot back then trying to learn about the virus. I'm watching those shows less and less because that's all we have anymore it seems. There has been so much mis-information about the virus, because we really don't know and are finding out so much each day. China's lack of candor about the virus "screwed" the whole world. The only thing I know for sure is that if it hits a person hard enough, it's deadly. We know for sure that elderly people and people with weakened immune systems are very susceptible. But while people with strong immune systems are less likely to be really sick, a good number of younger people (20-40 yrs of age)have died even with strong immune systems. Lot's of mysteries. It will take us a good number of months to have really accurate information.

[wsushox1]

It's possible to have been the sickest you ever been and it was the flu. The flu isn't a joke either. You can get mild cases and severe cases. It's very similar.

While I tended to agree that it was plausible the virus could have been infecting people silently as early as January, because everyone knows the first reported case in a country doesn't mean it wasn't here for a while already, we just didn't know about it and/or test for it. However, the fact that we hadn't seen a sudden rise in ICU visits (that I know of) in late January or February in the country really kills your point. If it was here already by mid-January, we would have had a huge rise in hospital visits and deaths in the February timeframe. I don't have statistics on that but that didn't happen I'm sure. We know there are millions in this country that have it or have had it (not 350,000 lol). Testing continues to be an issue.

The antibody testing would really help solve these squabbles going on here in this forum. Unfortunately, who knows how long it'll take to produce enough tests to make a dent in the data.

When I lived in Memphis the flu came through our office in the middle of June 2018. It knocked down about 1/3 of our staff of 45 - including me. We all had our flu shot the prior October but apparently not for this strain. I couldn't leave bed for about 4 days and several of my coworkers had the same symptoms.

I also tested positive for H1N1 in 2009 when I was a younger lad and my lungs took around 12 days to recover. The flu is no joke.

[wsushox1]

In COVID news, New York seems to have reached dy/dt = 0 (aka a plateau). Great news!!

[Kung Wu]

It was the first or second week of March by an infectious disease expert on a news program (around the time they cancelled the AAC tourney in Ft. Worth so I couldn't go). I watched the news quite a lot back then trying to learn about the virus. I'm watching those shows less and less because that's all we have anymore it seems. There has been so much mis-information about the virus, because we really don't know and are finding out so much each day.

The absolute highest R-naught I have seen from actual research is 3.28 -- nowhere near 9. Other research I have posted in this thread earlier, pins it at 2-2.5. You should read up on R0.

[Kung Wu]

In COVID news, New York seems to have reached dy/dt = 0 (aka a plateau). Great news!!

Nice! I don't know what to make of Louisiana. They are so up and down relative to other places, it's hard to believe their reporting.

[Shockm]

The absolute highest R-naught I have seen from actual research is 3.28 -- nowhere near 9. Other research I have posted in this thread earlier, pins it at 2-2.5. You should read up on R0.

Nah I don't want to read up on it. It can get into ones head if you allow it and a lot of people are losing perspective because of all of the negativity. I'll wait more until the research is really good. I've listened to Fauchi quite a bit and even the CDC is all over the place on their predictions, and their understanding of the data, how many will die, etc., changing a lot from week to week.

[Kung Wu]

Nah I don't want to read up on it. It can get into ones head if you allow it and a lot of people are losing perspective because of all of the negativity. I'll wait more until the research is really good. I've listened to Fauchi quite a bit and even the CDC is all over the place on their predictions, and their understanding of the data, changing a lot from week to week.

Well just know that 1 person does not infect 9, by any stretch of the imagination. It's a lot closer to 1 person infects 2 to 3.28. And that's without social distancing, testing, vaccines, etc.

[SB Shock]

Nice! I don't know what to make of Louisiana. They are so up and down relative to other places, it's hard to believe their reporting.

With their results they posted yesterday, I suspect they took the day off. Data coming in today is much more believable numbers. They have this odd "good day", "bad day" numbering reporting going on.

[RoyalShock]

With their results they posted yesterday, I suspect they took the day off. Data coming in today is much more believable numbers. They have this odd "good day", "bad day" numbering reporting going on.

I have started ignoring those fluctuations and attributing them to the timing of when they get test results and officially report them. It's humans handling all of this and I believe they don't have a consistently applied process for getting the numbers recorded. I'm waiting for 3-4 consecutive days of results to show a trend.

[Kung Wu]

With their results they posted yesterday, I suspect they took the day off. Data coming in today is much more believable numbers. They have this odd "good day", "bad day" numbering reporting going on.

That's what I am assuming too.

[Kung Wu]

I have started ignoring those fluctuations and attributing them to the timing of when they get test results and officially report them. It's humans handling all of this and I believe they don't have a consistently applied process for getting the numbers recorded. I'm waiting for 3-4 consecutive days of results to show a trend.

Yeah, it's just odd that they are the only state where I have seen it this wonky.