Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[ShockerFever]

It's weird that 3 or 4 weeks ago all the math nerds on here were shouting from the mountain that the exponential growth rate of this is real and the potential for crisis is real, and isolation is clearly the best bet in preventing this from becoming a medical crisis. And I would say that 100% of the math nerds still believe that.

Yet then drops in another person -- very late to the party -- who also says that isolation is the best bet for stopping it, but supports it with no math but a bunch of bad factoids, and he assumes because we are pointing them out that we don't understand the math or think that isolation is the key to preventing the crisis.

Facebook and Buzzfeed always check out.

[Kung Wu]

I dig this quote from Michael Buble:

“Your grandparents were asked to go to war, and all you’re being asked to do is to sit on the couch.”

[ShockingButTrue]

The gloom and doom prophets have been heard. My family is now taking the proper precautions:

unnamed.jpg

[SB Shock]

trend.jpg

growth vs china.jpg



Here is the updated trend. I also posted it against China during growth for comparison.

[SB Shock]

The gloom and doom prophets have been heard. My family is now taking the proper precautions:

unnamed.jpg

You need to shave him for it to be effective.

[Kung Wu]

Here is the updated trend. I also posted it against China during growth for comparison.

Unfortunately, we are likely to have a lot more hot spots than China did.

South Korea absolutely nailed this thing. They initiated the private industry to rapidly create a massive amount of tests, quaity be damned. They understood that in normal times quality > availability, but in a crisis availability >>> quality.

Test, baby, test!!

[SHOCKvalue]

I wish my field could take time off. Slammed with work.

[WichitaStateGuy]

Unfortunately, we are likely to have a lot more hot spots than China did.

Why?

[WichitaStateGuy]

trend.jpg

growth vs china.jpg



Here is the updated trend. I also posted it against China during growth for comparison.

What exactly are we regressing here? Days onto cases? You really think that 99% of the variability in Y is explained solely on X? No way. This regression reeks of bias.

[Awesome Sauce Malone]

Why?

New York, LA, New Orleans, While one is not the same as the other two they all three share a common characteristic.

[WichitaStateGuy]

New York, LA, New Orleans, While one is not the same as the other two they all three share a common characteristic.

Huh?

China has far more cases than the US. The US has far more testing than China. The president even alluded to this. I don't trust China, and neither should you.

[Awesome Sauce Malone]

The gloom and doom prophets have been heard. My family is now taking the proper precautions:

unnamed.jpg

The "Preachy" Atheist is just as bad as the "Preachy" Evangelical. #BeBest

[Awesome Sauce Malone]

Huh?

China has far more cases than the US. The US has far more testing than China. The president even alluded to this. I don't trust China, and neither should you.

A "Stay at Home" order from the Chinese government is assumably more dictator-ish in nature. So when they say they lock something down I'll take their word for it. As I've pointed to before in another post - We're not China and I certainly understand why some people believe our government (Regardless of your Political viewpoint) could be moving into that direction. But thats not what the discussion here. The numbers do point to the USA having more confirmed cases. I wont stop you from believing that to be true or false.

With that said, Im not speaking for Kung Wu so FWIW - Hot spots meaning = Massive infection point. He's alluded to Louisiana becoming a "Hot Spot" for a few days now. LA and NY have the most confirmed cases with a correlation to population and population density. So basically if you're in a city it would be wise to be vigilant AF with your hygiene and encourage others to do the same.

[Awesome Sauce Malone]

I dig this quote from Michael Buble:

“Your grandparents were asked to go to war, and all you’re being asked to do is to sit on the couch.”

I've been training for this moment My whole entire life. lol

[Kung Wu]

Why?

Hmm, the way I see it ...

1) For the first few weeks of the breakout in China there were still many direct flights from Wuhan --> JFK airport in New York City, Wuhan --> LAX airport in Los Angeles, and Wuhan --> SFO airport in San Francisco (there are some others but these were the large bulk of direct flights);

2) We don't round up every person that has it and throw them in a gulag and run military vehicles up and down the streets;

3) The CDC was stuck in an ancient protocol of government regulation vs entrepreneurial problem solving and chose accuracy over availability of tests