Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

[wsushox1]

And now the conversation over common sense and realty starting to come forward:

WASHINGTON — Tensions are beginning to brew among the president, his advisers and public health experts over how long America needs to be shut down as they weigh the massive economic cost versus the public health benefits.

Administration officials, anxious to get the country back to business, have grown increasingly concerned in recent days about the devastating economic impact the tight restrictions on movement and social interactions are having. These officials said they worry that the White House went too far in allowing public health experts to set policy and that their actions did not need to be so draconian.

Public health officials have pushed the White House to urge Americans to stay at home in an effort to blunt the spread of the virus and "flatten the curve" of the number of new cases. Officials in Italy were slow to isolate affected regions and limit movement, leading to one of the world's worst outbreak so far.

There is hope that the expiration next Monday of the administration’s "15 Days to Slow the Spread" guidelines, which urge people to stay at home if they are older, feeling sick or who have been in contact with someone infected, could serve as a light at the end of the tunnel and possible pivot point to restart the economy.

Trump’s frustrations spilled into public overnight, tweeting, in all caps that “WE CANNOT LET THE CURSE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO.”

My personal opinion is that we need to accept the suck for a few more weeks and then start easing back into things. Easing back into things a week from today would be far, far too premature and undoubtedly cost lives. There's a relative risk to everything, and you could make the argument that by waiting a few more weeks more lives could be lost due to the effect on the economy, and I get that. That's why it's important to get fiscal stimulus and checks distributed as soon as possible.

[WstateU]

Bezos letter to Amazon employees... worth reading.

https://www.inc.com/bill-murphy-jr/jeff-bezos-open-letter-amazon-employees-coronavirus.html

[CBB_Fan]

I've been keeping track of NYC emergency room visits. Some of this is fear, but the virus clearly seems to cause more hospitalizations than the flu. https://weinbergerlab.shinyapps.io/NYC_syndromic/

Italy also seems to paint a dreary picture what happens when beds get overwhelmed. More covid-19 deaths in a dya than flu deaths in a year. This area has 1800 beds, 300 ICU beds, and many of those are already filled. Mortality may be manageable if the new cases stay under 50 per day and very high after that.

Recovery data is also a little misleading. Severe cases cause permanent damage, and that makes you more susceptible to further illnesses. Those on respirators have it even worse with a 1 year survival rate of 30% post recovery. That suggests that the 'real' death toll will climb substantially long after hospitalizations peak.

Ultimately I do feel that the mortality rate is low when managed properly, but I believe we need to be make sure we do that.

[ShockingButTrue]

Oh look! The board moron, who apparently cares more about his financial investments than the community at large is awake and alive and gratuitously insulting people (again).

Did Rush tell you to do that? And by the way, given the reliability of your predictions (or perhaps its your ignorance) you probably ought to consider trying a little face-saving at this point. You're just digging your hole a little deeper and removing all doubt of what and who you are.

DoubleBird.jpg

Predictions? You wish.

I'm not making any predictions base on unknown data. Do you understand?

#AnchorsAweigh (in honor of our last meeting, coward)

[wsushox1]

Kung Wu Here's some information regarding hospitalizatoin and ICU.

[ShockerFever]

Kung Wu Here's some information regarding hospitalizatoin and ICU.

Do we know how many of those younger cases involve underlying conditions and/or smoking habits?

[wufan]

Probably most but not all. There’s a 12 year old in Atlanta with no underlying conditions that’s on a ventilator right now.

[ShockerFever]

Probably most but not all. There’s a 12 year old in Atlanta with no underlying conditions that’s on a ventilator right now.

Right. That’s unfortunate. I’m sure there are rare cases with situations like these. I’m sure the flu is similar in regards with cases of people with good health getting severely sick and needing aggressive medical attention.

[wsushox1]

Right. That’s unfortunate. I’m sure there are rare cases with situations like these. I’m sure the flu is similar in regards with cases of people with good health getting severely sick and needing aggressive medical attention.

The hospitalization rates and ICU rates, even for the young, are pretty high. But again, we still don'w know what the true denominator of # of infected is.

[wufan]

I believe that yesterday will be the first day we can point to to say that Italy is now tapering off. I think their death rate will be far worse than most of the rest of the world's but my reasoning belongs in the debate thread. Fingers crossed that they are now tapering.

Italy came in a touch lower today (maybe). They started asking for quarantine the last week of February, and enforced a nationwide quarantine on March 9. It looks like 2 weeks of strong social lockdown might be the key.

If the above is true, we haven’t yet started the hard lock down in all areas. If we do, we should see a slow regression following such a time. We’ve been in a loose lockdown for a week. In another 2 to 4 weeks we should start seeing a decrease maybe. At that point we would see between 1 and 10 million confirmed cases and 10-100k deaths. This would keep it similar to a flu season.

Hope that’s it.

[SB Shock]

The present administration 2 week plan was premature. You needed to be able to do widespread, immediate testing with results. Right now to get tested you need an act of God almost. It not that hard, ROK had drive-thru stations where you could get the results within 30 minutes. If you can actually get tested it will be a couple days before they get results.

It does not even look like they are better off than when this started because the system is reactionary, not pro-active. You have to find those who are infected, especially the ones with minor symptoms and get them quarantined.

And if the other counties are like the idiots in Sedgwick County commission - were doomed. They basically gave a "stay-home" order to all game stop employees. Their "stay-home" order only amounted to "stay-confused" order. I think they were really expecting the Governor to do something Sunday and they didn't want the decision on their hands either way.

[wufan]

What’s the stay home order actually?

[SHOXAAC]

What’s the stay home order actually?

Your grounded except for groceries, booze, medication, doctor, drive through food. You know, the requirements. If you work in healthcare, or the industries previously mentioned you can be un-grounded.

[Kung Wu]

Your grounded except for groceries, booze, medication, doctor, drive through food. You know, the requirements. If you work in healthcare, or the industries previously mentioned you can be un-grounded.

Booze is still open?

[SB Shock]

Your grounded except for groceries, booze, medication, doctor, drive through food. You know, the requirements. If you work in healthcare, or the industries previously mentioned you can be un-grounded.

Beyond the normal first responders and healthcare there was 26 exemptions. They included grocery store workers and farmers markets and convenience stores that sell food. Gas stations, cleaning services and the ag industry and the media services are considered essential.

Food process, social services, all media, gas stations and auto road service, banks, hardware stores, plumber and electricians and HVAC, mail and shipping, educational institutions and laundry and dry cleaning are on the list. Also included is restaurants for drive through or pickup, school lunch deliveries, supply products services, shipping and trucking and delivery persons, taxi and commercial aircraft workers and those who offer shelter to adults or kids are on the list. Also on the list is attorneys, realtors, insurance and title companies, child care facilities (up to ten kids) mortuaries, and manufacturing companies that supply products as well as clergy. And I'm sure there are others not listed here.