Now that Shocker Madness is behind us (I think) and the fact we’re about two weeks away from the start of Shocker Basketball, I thought it would be a good opportunity to look ahead at this year’s schedule and poll SN to see just what sort of season we all expect. How many wins do you think our beloved Shockers will get during the upcoming regular season? No better way to do that than to look at our opponents (and potential opponents in the case of B4A) to guide your thinking. Let’s look at last year’s record, where they are expected to finish in their conference, and some key points of each team that should give us an idea of how competitive they might be. One caveat: I’m assuming no injuries to key players throughout the season, which is probably Pollyanna but the only way to make predictions this early. So here goes, a rundown of every Shocker opponent for the 2016-17 regular season:
Nov. 11. South Carolina State. (H) CKA. Last Year’s Record (LYR): 19-15. Projected Conference Rank (PCR): 2nd. Okay, so the Bulldogs are picked 2nd in their conference. It’s the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference. And even though they possess what many consider to be the best backcourt in the conference in Eric Eaves and Ed Stephens, don’t expect a competitive game.
Prediction: Win (blowout)
Nov. 13. Long Beach State. (H) CKA. LYR: 20-15. PCR: 1st. LBS lost their top scorer and rebounder, Nick Faust, but has returning all conference PG Justin Bibbins along with some talented transfers this year in Evan Payner (Loyola Marymount) and Roschon Prince (USC) and many are predicting the 49ers will win the conference. This should be a really good challenge for Coach Marshall and his reconfigured Shocker team who will need to establish their guard rotation early in the season.
Prediction: Win (close game)
Nov. 16. Tulsa. (H) CKA. LYR: 20-12. PCR: 9th. It wasn’t that long ago, many of us were happy with the return to a long-time rivalry. This year we might think otherwise. Frank Haith finds himself replacing seven of eight players who averaged at least 17 mpg and was left with guard Pat Birt (12 ppg) to blend with six freshmen and three transfers. Don’t see the Golden Hurricane returning to the NCAAs this year.
Prediction: Win
Nov. 20. Maryland Eastern Shore. (H) CKA. LYR: 10-22. PCR: 10th. The Hawks ranked 318th in KenPom last year at the end of the season and had one of the worst defenses. This is going to be ugly.
Prediction: Win (the Shox break the 100 point mark)
Nov. 23. LSU. Battle 4 Atlantis. (N) Paradise Island, Bahamas. First thing’s first. I’m going to predict Michigan State runs through the field at the B4A. Now that that’s out of the way, let’s discuss the first game of the B4A for our beloved Shockers. LSU won’t be the NCAA tournament team from last year for one very obvious reason: Ben Simmons has vacated Baton Rouge for Philadelphia and the 76ers. They also lost Tim Quarterman and Keith Hornsby. I love our chances on a neutral court.
Prediction: Win
Nov. 24. Projected: Louisville. Battle 4 Atlantis. (N) Paradise Island, Bahamas. LYR: 23-8. PCR: 7th. Lost three key starters including their top two scorers and rebounder. But don’t count out the Cardinals who still have talent. This is a real toss up for me and could go either way. I’m just not convinced 3G will have the guard play to get us past the 14th ranked team (USA Today as of 21 Oct).
Prediction: Loss
Nov. 25. Projected: Baylor. (N) Paradise Island, Bahamas. LYR: 22-12. PCR: 6th. I don’t see VCU getting past the Bears which means Baylor will face MSU. That puts the Bears in the loser’s bracket for game 9 and because I think the Shox won’t get past the Cardinals, I see us playing Baylor in this game. The Bears lost three key players from last year’s NCAA tournament team to include Taurean Prince and Rico Gathers and will be relying on freshmen guards to run the team. On a neutral court, I like our chances here.
Prediction: Win
Nov. 29. Southern Nazarene. (H) CKA. LYR: 13-16. PCR: 4th. The Division II Crimson Storm of the Great American Conference comes into CKA a decided underdog. Like the Maryland Eastern Shore game, I expect this one to be a one-sided affair, giving 3G the chance to play deep into his bench.
Prediction: Win (second 100 plus point game)
Dec. 3. Colorado State. (A) Ft. Collins, Colo. LYR: 18-16. PCR: 7th. Led by sixth-year player Gian Clavell, who was averaging 20.8 ppg and 6.9 rpg before injuring his hand and having surgery to repair his labrum in his shoulder, the Rams probably won’t pose too much of a problem for the Shockers, who are known to be road warriors. This game is the first true road game and it will be interesting to see how this year’s team plays on the road.
Prediction: Win
Dec. 6. St. Louis. (H) CKA. LYR: 11-21. PCR: 13th. Oof. Like Tulsa, I used to really like the idea of home-and-homes with St. Louis. But this has become a laugher and hasn’t really helped our RPI. Apparently, the AD agreed and fired Jim Crews. So now it’s up to Travis Ford to pick up the pieces and try to make the Billikens relevant again. He’s got his work cut out for him.
Prediction: Win (blowout)
Dec. 10. Oklahoma. (A) OK City. LYR: 29-8. PCR: 4th. Buddy Hield and Isaiah Cousins are both gone and the Sooners, much like the Shox, will have to rely on an incoming 4 star recruit (Kameron McGusty) to pick up the loss of two dynamic players. With ten games under their belts, I like the Shockers’ chances in this game and I expect a close game but don’t think we prevail on the road.
Prediction: Loss
Dec. 17. Oklahoma State. (H) IBA. LYR: 12-20. PCR: 7th. The Cowboys get Phil Forte (15 ppg, 1.9 steals) back after sitting out last year to an elbow injury and have Big 12 FOY Jawun Evans running the point. But it won’t be enough for new coach Brad Underwood to weather the fury his team will experience in IBA.
Prediction: Win (to run our record to 7-0 in IBA)
Dec. 22. South Dakota State. (H) CKA. LYR: 26-8. PCR: 2nd. Led by pre-season conference player of the year (and last season’s FOY and Sixth Man of the Year) Mike Daum (17.3 ppg/6.6 rpg), the Jackrabbits look to recover from the loss of head coach Scott Nagy who bolted for Wright State. In only their fourth year in Division 1, South Dakota State has won four of the last five conference championships and aren’t necessarily a push over. This should be a good final tune up game before the start of the Valley conference season.
Prediction: Win
Dec. 28. Indiana State. (A) Terre Haute. LYR: 15-17. PCR: 6th. Greg Lansing’s Sycamores have not yet recovered from the graduation of Jake Odum and this year doesn’t look to change their outlook, even though they return Brenton Scott (14.6 ppg) who many project as the possible MVC POY, and Everett Clemons who was on the MVC All-Newcomer Team. WSU-ISU games in Terre Haute are always tough games but, like last year, the Shox shouldn’t have any problems.
Prediction: Win
Jan. 1. Bradley. (H) CKA. LYR: 5-27. PCR: 9th. Coach Wardle brings back most of his roster from last year and has incoming 3 star recruit Koch Bar (6-10, 225) who will join fellow freshman Jayden Hodgson (6-3, 185). It will be interesting to see if the Braves can get more than 10 wins this year.
Prediction: Win
Jan. 4. Drake. (H) CKA. LYR: 7-24. PCR: 10th. Reed Timmer (16.8 ppg) earned MVC Honorable-Mention last year. He’s going to have to step up to First Team to keep the Bulldogs from bringing up the rear in the Valley.
Prediction: Win
Jan. 8. Northern Iowa. (A) Cedar Falls. LYR: 23-13. PCR: 2nd. Ben Jacobson has established himself as the other top coach in the Valley, rightfully so. And even though Wes Washpun and Paul Jesperson are gone, Jeremy Morgan (11.3 ppg) returns with Klint Carlson (7.4 ppg) and one can expect the Panthers to have another great defensive team. This will be a hard fought battle and close game but wont’ have the same result as last year.
Prediction: Loss
Jan. 11. Loyola. (H) CKA. LYR: 15-17. PCR: 7th. Milton Doyle. Oh, and Porter Moser. CKA. Okay. That’s all I got.
Prediction: Win
Jan. 14. Illinois State. (A) Normal, Ill. LYR: 18-14. PCR: 3rd. The Redbirds return Paris Lee (11.1 ppg) and MiKyle McIntosh (10.9 ppg) and Dan Muller’s teams always give the Shox fits. It’s tough to win conference road games, even if it is the MVC, and the Shox were unable to pull it out last year in Normal.
Prediction: Loss
Jan. 17. Evansville. (A) Evansville, Ind. LYR: 25-9. PCR: 8th. The loss of D.J. Balentine and Egidijus Mockevicius will be impossible to overcome and the Purple Aces will be a shell of what they once were. Jaylon Brown (10.8 ppg) is the lone bright spot but he’s not going to be able to overcome the departures of the two First Team MVC stars. 3G has always seemed to find a way to beat these guys and this year will be no different.
Prediction: Win
Jan. 21. Indiana State. (H) CKA. LYR: 15-17. PCR: 6th. There is absolutely no way the Sycamores enter CKA and come away with a win at this juncture of the season. The Shox should be running on all cylinders at this point.
Prediction: Win
Jan. 24. Southern Illinois. (H) CKA. LYR: 22-10. PCR: 4th. MVC COY Barry Hinson (damn that hurts to type) loses First Team MVC guard Anthony Beane but has three returning starters to include Mike Rodriguez (All MVC Newcomer Team, 8.3 ppg) and Sean O’Brien (12.1 ppg). The intriguing addition of Thik Bol (10.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg) who tied for 4th in the NJCAA with 3.3 blocks last year makes this year’s edition of the Salukis a dangerous darkhorse of the MVC.
Prediction: Win
Jan. 29. Bradley. (A) Peoria, Ill. LYR: 5-27. PCR: 9th. It will be interesting to see how the incoming freshmen have impacted the Braves, particularly Koch Bar, the 6-10 3 star. Because the Braves only won five games last season, I suspect the incoming talent has helped, but not enough.
Prediction: Win
Feb. 1. Drake. (A) Des Moines, Iowa. LYR: 7-24. PCR: 10th. There’s just no way Ray Giacoletti figures out a way to beat the Shox this year, certainly not with his roster, and certainly not against our roster.
Prediction: Win (3G’s 8th consecutive 20-plus win season)
Feb. 4. Illinois State. (H) CKA. LYR: 18-14. PCR: 3rd. Muller’s Redbirds will be fired up for this game, especially after beating our beloved Shockers in Normal. But sweeping the Shox isn’t in the cards.
Prediction: Win
Feb. 9. Missouri State. (H) CKA. LYR: 13-19. PCR: 5th. Paul Lusk’s squad returns starters Dequon Miller (MVC Newcomer of the Year, 12.7 ppg) and Chris Hendrix (12.1 ppg) and looks to improve on a horrible conference record (8-10) from last year. And unless they can start hitting their free throws and 3-pointers (worse in the MVC last year), they won’t be much of a factor this year either.
Prediction: Win
Feb. 12. Loyola. (A) Chicago, Ill. LYR: 15-17. PCR: 7th. Every year there’s a buzz that the Ramblers will be a tough win in Gentile Arena and every year 3G’s Shox find a way to subdue the buzz. This year will be no different. Even with the addition of Iowa State transfer Clayton Custer and two Croatians, guard Bruno Skokna and forward Vlatko Granic, Moser’s Ramblers won’t have enough to outlast the Shockers.
Prediction: Win
Feb. 15. Southern Illinois. (A) Carbondale, Ill. LYR: 22-10. PCR: 4th. Will Barry have his Salukis rolling in February? Is Southern Illinois heading back to the glory days when they dominated the MVC? Perhaps. But they’re still not quite there.
Prediction: Win
Feb. 18. Northern Iowa. (H) CKA. LYR: 23-13. PCR: 2nd. I think the boys know they have to avenge last year’s CKA loss that stopped the nation’s longest active home winning streak. And the Panthers will wilt before the packed house as the Shox lead from start to finish, ensuring there will be no repeat from last year.
Prediction: Win
Feb. 21. Evansville. (H) CKA. LYR: 25-9. PCR: 8th. Wichita State will finish their MVC home schedule with a perfect record as the Purple Aces stumble in CKA.
Prediction: Win
Feb. 25. Missouri State. (A). Springfield, Mo. LYR: 13-19. PCR: 5th. The Shox had no trouble with the Bears at CKA and the only reason to fear this game is the fact that 3G’s squad will have wrapped up the MVC regular season title before the game starts.
Prediction: Win
Nov. 11. South Carolina State. (H) CKA. Last Year’s Record (LYR): 19-15. Projected Conference Rank (PCR): 2nd. Okay, so the Bulldogs are picked 2nd in their conference. It’s the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference. And even though they possess what many consider to be the best backcourt in the conference in Eric Eaves and Ed Stephens, don’t expect a competitive game.
Prediction: Win (blowout)
Nov. 13. Long Beach State. (H) CKA. LYR: 20-15. PCR: 1st. LBS lost their top scorer and rebounder, Nick Faust, but has returning all conference PG Justin Bibbins along with some talented transfers this year in Evan Payner (Loyola Marymount) and Roschon Prince (USC) and many are predicting the 49ers will win the conference. This should be a really good challenge for Coach Marshall and his reconfigured Shocker team who will need to establish their guard rotation early in the season.
Prediction: Win (close game)
Nov. 16. Tulsa. (H) CKA. LYR: 20-12. PCR: 9th. It wasn’t that long ago, many of us were happy with the return to a long-time rivalry. This year we might think otherwise. Frank Haith finds himself replacing seven of eight players who averaged at least 17 mpg and was left with guard Pat Birt (12 ppg) to blend with six freshmen and three transfers. Don’t see the Golden Hurricane returning to the NCAAs this year.
Prediction: Win
Nov. 20. Maryland Eastern Shore. (H) CKA. LYR: 10-22. PCR: 10th. The Hawks ranked 318th in KenPom last year at the end of the season and had one of the worst defenses. This is going to be ugly.
Prediction: Win (the Shox break the 100 point mark)
Nov. 23. LSU. Battle 4 Atlantis. (N) Paradise Island, Bahamas. First thing’s first. I’m going to predict Michigan State runs through the field at the B4A. Now that that’s out of the way, let’s discuss the first game of the B4A for our beloved Shockers. LSU won’t be the NCAA tournament team from last year for one very obvious reason: Ben Simmons has vacated Baton Rouge for Philadelphia and the 76ers. They also lost Tim Quarterman and Keith Hornsby. I love our chances on a neutral court.
Prediction: Win
Nov. 24. Projected: Louisville. Battle 4 Atlantis. (N) Paradise Island, Bahamas. LYR: 23-8. PCR: 7th. Lost three key starters including their top two scorers and rebounder. But don’t count out the Cardinals who still have talent. This is a real toss up for me and could go either way. I’m just not convinced 3G will have the guard play to get us past the 14th ranked team (USA Today as of 21 Oct).
Prediction: Loss
Nov. 25. Projected: Baylor. (N) Paradise Island, Bahamas. LYR: 22-12. PCR: 6th. I don’t see VCU getting past the Bears which means Baylor will face MSU. That puts the Bears in the loser’s bracket for game 9 and because I think the Shox won’t get past the Cardinals, I see us playing Baylor in this game. The Bears lost three key players from last year’s NCAA tournament team to include Taurean Prince and Rico Gathers and will be relying on freshmen guards to run the team. On a neutral court, I like our chances here.
Prediction: Win
Nov. 29. Southern Nazarene. (H) CKA. LYR: 13-16. PCR: 4th. The Division II Crimson Storm of the Great American Conference comes into CKA a decided underdog. Like the Maryland Eastern Shore game, I expect this one to be a one-sided affair, giving 3G the chance to play deep into his bench.
Prediction: Win (second 100 plus point game)
Dec. 3. Colorado State. (A) Ft. Collins, Colo. LYR: 18-16. PCR: 7th. Led by sixth-year player Gian Clavell, who was averaging 20.8 ppg and 6.9 rpg before injuring his hand and having surgery to repair his labrum in his shoulder, the Rams probably won’t pose too much of a problem for the Shockers, who are known to be road warriors. This game is the first true road game and it will be interesting to see how this year’s team plays on the road.
Prediction: Win
Dec. 6. St. Louis. (H) CKA. LYR: 11-21. PCR: 13th. Oof. Like Tulsa, I used to really like the idea of home-and-homes with St. Louis. But this has become a laugher and hasn’t really helped our RPI. Apparently, the AD agreed and fired Jim Crews. So now it’s up to Travis Ford to pick up the pieces and try to make the Billikens relevant again. He’s got his work cut out for him.
Prediction: Win (blowout)
Dec. 10. Oklahoma. (A) OK City. LYR: 29-8. PCR: 4th. Buddy Hield and Isaiah Cousins are both gone and the Sooners, much like the Shox, will have to rely on an incoming 4 star recruit (Kameron McGusty) to pick up the loss of two dynamic players. With ten games under their belts, I like the Shockers’ chances in this game and I expect a close game but don’t think we prevail on the road.
Prediction: Loss
Dec. 17. Oklahoma State. (H) IBA. LYR: 12-20. PCR: 7th. The Cowboys get Phil Forte (15 ppg, 1.9 steals) back after sitting out last year to an elbow injury and have Big 12 FOY Jawun Evans running the point. But it won’t be enough for new coach Brad Underwood to weather the fury his team will experience in IBA.
Prediction: Win (to run our record to 7-0 in IBA)
Dec. 22. South Dakota State. (H) CKA. LYR: 26-8. PCR: 2nd. Led by pre-season conference player of the year (and last season’s FOY and Sixth Man of the Year) Mike Daum (17.3 ppg/6.6 rpg), the Jackrabbits look to recover from the loss of head coach Scott Nagy who bolted for Wright State. In only their fourth year in Division 1, South Dakota State has won four of the last five conference championships and aren’t necessarily a push over. This should be a good final tune up game before the start of the Valley conference season.
Prediction: Win
Dec. 28. Indiana State. (A) Terre Haute. LYR: 15-17. PCR: 6th. Greg Lansing’s Sycamores have not yet recovered from the graduation of Jake Odum and this year doesn’t look to change their outlook, even though they return Brenton Scott (14.6 ppg) who many project as the possible MVC POY, and Everett Clemons who was on the MVC All-Newcomer Team. WSU-ISU games in Terre Haute are always tough games but, like last year, the Shox shouldn’t have any problems.
Prediction: Win
Jan. 1. Bradley. (H) CKA. LYR: 5-27. PCR: 9th. Coach Wardle brings back most of his roster from last year and has incoming 3 star recruit Koch Bar (6-10, 225) who will join fellow freshman Jayden Hodgson (6-3, 185). It will be interesting to see if the Braves can get more than 10 wins this year.
Prediction: Win
Jan. 4. Drake. (H) CKA. LYR: 7-24. PCR: 10th. Reed Timmer (16.8 ppg) earned MVC Honorable-Mention last year. He’s going to have to step up to First Team to keep the Bulldogs from bringing up the rear in the Valley.
Prediction: Win
Jan. 8. Northern Iowa. (A) Cedar Falls. LYR: 23-13. PCR: 2nd. Ben Jacobson has established himself as the other top coach in the Valley, rightfully so. And even though Wes Washpun and Paul Jesperson are gone, Jeremy Morgan (11.3 ppg) returns with Klint Carlson (7.4 ppg) and one can expect the Panthers to have another great defensive team. This will be a hard fought battle and close game but wont’ have the same result as last year.
Prediction: Loss
Jan. 11. Loyola. (H) CKA. LYR: 15-17. PCR: 7th. Milton Doyle. Oh, and Porter Moser. CKA. Okay. That’s all I got.
Prediction: Win
Jan. 14. Illinois State. (A) Normal, Ill. LYR: 18-14. PCR: 3rd. The Redbirds return Paris Lee (11.1 ppg) and MiKyle McIntosh (10.9 ppg) and Dan Muller’s teams always give the Shox fits. It’s tough to win conference road games, even if it is the MVC, and the Shox were unable to pull it out last year in Normal.
Prediction: Loss
Jan. 17. Evansville. (A) Evansville, Ind. LYR: 25-9. PCR: 8th. The loss of D.J. Balentine and Egidijus Mockevicius will be impossible to overcome and the Purple Aces will be a shell of what they once were. Jaylon Brown (10.8 ppg) is the lone bright spot but he’s not going to be able to overcome the departures of the two First Team MVC stars. 3G has always seemed to find a way to beat these guys and this year will be no different.
Prediction: Win
Jan. 21. Indiana State. (H) CKA. LYR: 15-17. PCR: 6th. There is absolutely no way the Sycamores enter CKA and come away with a win at this juncture of the season. The Shox should be running on all cylinders at this point.
Prediction: Win
Jan. 24. Southern Illinois. (H) CKA. LYR: 22-10. PCR: 4th. MVC COY Barry Hinson (damn that hurts to type) loses First Team MVC guard Anthony Beane but has three returning starters to include Mike Rodriguez (All MVC Newcomer Team, 8.3 ppg) and Sean O’Brien (12.1 ppg). The intriguing addition of Thik Bol (10.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg) who tied for 4th in the NJCAA with 3.3 blocks last year makes this year’s edition of the Salukis a dangerous darkhorse of the MVC.
Prediction: Win
Jan. 29. Bradley. (A) Peoria, Ill. LYR: 5-27. PCR: 9th. It will be interesting to see how the incoming freshmen have impacted the Braves, particularly Koch Bar, the 6-10 3 star. Because the Braves only won five games last season, I suspect the incoming talent has helped, but not enough.
Prediction: Win
Feb. 1. Drake. (A) Des Moines, Iowa. LYR: 7-24. PCR: 10th. There’s just no way Ray Giacoletti figures out a way to beat the Shox this year, certainly not with his roster, and certainly not against our roster.
Prediction: Win (3G’s 8th consecutive 20-plus win season)
Feb. 4. Illinois State. (H) CKA. LYR: 18-14. PCR: 3rd. Muller’s Redbirds will be fired up for this game, especially after beating our beloved Shockers in Normal. But sweeping the Shox isn’t in the cards.
Prediction: Win
Feb. 9. Missouri State. (H) CKA. LYR: 13-19. PCR: 5th. Paul Lusk’s squad returns starters Dequon Miller (MVC Newcomer of the Year, 12.7 ppg) and Chris Hendrix (12.1 ppg) and looks to improve on a horrible conference record (8-10) from last year. And unless they can start hitting their free throws and 3-pointers (worse in the MVC last year), they won’t be much of a factor this year either.
Prediction: Win
Feb. 12. Loyola. (A) Chicago, Ill. LYR: 15-17. PCR: 7th. Every year there’s a buzz that the Ramblers will be a tough win in Gentile Arena and every year 3G’s Shox find a way to subdue the buzz. This year will be no different. Even with the addition of Iowa State transfer Clayton Custer and two Croatians, guard Bruno Skokna and forward Vlatko Granic, Moser’s Ramblers won’t have enough to outlast the Shockers.
Prediction: Win
Feb. 15. Southern Illinois. (A) Carbondale, Ill. LYR: 22-10. PCR: 4th. Will Barry have his Salukis rolling in February? Is Southern Illinois heading back to the glory days when they dominated the MVC? Perhaps. But they’re still not quite there.
Prediction: Win
Feb. 18. Northern Iowa. (H) CKA. LYR: 23-13. PCR: 2nd. I think the boys know they have to avenge last year’s CKA loss that stopped the nation’s longest active home winning streak. And the Panthers will wilt before the packed house as the Shox lead from start to finish, ensuring there will be no repeat from last year.
Prediction: Win
Feb. 21. Evansville. (H) CKA. LYR: 25-9. PCR: 8th. Wichita State will finish their MVC home schedule with a perfect record as the Purple Aces stumble in CKA.
Prediction: Win
Feb. 25. Missouri State. (A). Springfield, Mo. LYR: 13-19. PCR: 5th. The Shox had no trouble with the Bears at CKA and the only reason to fear this game is the fact that 3G’s squad will have wrapped up the MVC regular season title before the game starts.
Prediction: Win
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