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Every year, auto-bids are given to the winners of conference tournaments spanning the full spectrum of Division 1. Auto-bids will be given to teams as high as the top 10 and as low as 150, 200, or worse. With 68 bids total, what effectively happens is a number of spots are taken by what I will call “undeserving” teams. This isn’t a slam on the process, as I like the fact that every conference gets representation. I am merely pointing out how the bubble’s cut line is never actually at team #68 in the country, but always a ways higher up.
What I have done in this post is put together a list to help us identify where this year’s cut will fall. From here on, comments like “best case” or “worst case” scenario will be from the perspective of other bubble teams hoping to make the cut and get a bid. Historically, a best case scenario is a cut line around #50, while a worst case scenario is a cut line around #45. This means there are normally 18-23 undeserving teams who earn auto bids and knock teams in the 50s and 60s into the NIT.
Tier 1 - Leagues without an atlarge contender (17)
17 conferences lack a single team with a deserving resume. Regardless of how things play out, they will be sending a bid thief dancing.
Tier 2 - Other probable 1 bid leagues (5)
MAAC - Monmouth
Sun Belt - Arkansas Little Rock
Big West - Hawaii
Horizon - Valparaiso
Mountain West - San Diego St
There is only a small chance that any of these 5 teams can suffer another loss and get an atlarge bid. Each is lacking the opportunities for quality wins to offset what would be a devastating loss to an already weak resume. However, in each case, if they win out and therefore don't suffer any more losses, I could see them rising high enough to just slip into the top 45 or so of the S-Curve and effectively have a worthy resume. Depending on your perspective, this could be considered meaningless, but my point is that a bubble team doesn't have to worry about any of these 5 passing them on the S-Curve by finishing strong and winning the auto bid. Getting passed in such a scenario merely moves the effective cut line down a spot. These conferences appear to be stuck with 1 bid either way, but they are different than tier 1 conferences in that the auto bid could go to a worthy team. This is a great example of why the cut line varies from year to year. It's all about how many of the 32 auto bids go to deserving teams. Should Monmouth, UALR, Hawaii, Valpo, or San Diego St win out, they will each be right on this threshold.
Likely 3 to 5 bid thieves from this group
Tier 3 - Possible one bid leagues (3)
MVC
WSU is obviously the only deserving team, and they are pretty much safely in. If WSU wins the MVC Tourney (likely, but far from a guarantee), no bids are stolen. If any of the other 9 win, an undeserving team steals a bid. Simple as that.
Chances of a bid thief - 15%
WCC
Although Gonzaga is currently on the bubble, if either the Zags or St. Mary’s wins the WCC Tourney, at that point the winner’s final resume will likely be atlarge worthy, meaning they won’t really count as a bid stealer. Only if someone else wins the WCC Tourney is a bid really lost to someone undeserving.
Chances of a bid thief - 10%
American
UConn, Temple, and Tulsa are similar to the situation in the WCC. None are yet locks for an atlarge, but if any of these 3 wins the American Tourney, they will have a deserving resume at that point. Cincinnati and Houston are in the next tier down. They may or may not be bid stealers if they win the auto-bid. Beyond those 5, the rest would indeed be thieves.
Chances of a bid thief - 5%
Tier 4 - Multi Bid Leagues (Guaranteed of at least 3 bids) (7)
A10, ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12, SEC
So what does all this mean? Well, 17 conferences lack any type of atlarge worthy teams. This means their conference tournaments are guaranteed to provide an undeserving team into the field of 68. This is our baseline. This means that as a bubble team in 2016 hoping to get in, the best case scenario is that the cut line will fall at #51 on the committee’s S-Curve. If you are #52, and you didn’t earn an auto-bid, you are headed to the NIT.
Now on to the next group, which currently includes 5 conferences with one key team in each. None of these teams are likely to snag an atlarge bid if they need it, but any of the 5 could have an atlarge worthy resume if they win out. As discussed previously, they would no longer need the atlarge bid at that point, but for purposes of defining the cut line, this distinction matters. For now, I'll assume anywhere from 3 to all 5 of these conferences send a bid thief. Our cut line is now a range. Worst case 46, up to best case 48.
The next group includes 3 conferences which have a limited number of atlarge contenders. The American, WCC, and MVC could all easily be won by a worthy team, but there is a good chance at least one, if not more, provide a surprise and someone steals a bid. Best case, the favorites win these 3 leagues and no bids are stolen. Worst case, the 3 leagues provide 3 bid thieves. Our cut line range is now worst case 43, up to best case 48.
The final group includes the top 7 conferences. These conferences are deep, and the winners are very likely to be deserving teams. For all 7 conferences combined I only give about a 1-in-10 chance that a bid thief shows up anywhere in this group. Final cut line... worst case 42, best case 48.
Final Conclusions:
We can be absolutely certain the 51st best team in the country will NOT be receiving an atlarge bid this year. We can be almost as certain the 49th best team won't either. Most likely, the cut line will be around 45 or 46.
This becomes evident when you start looking at bracketologists’ actual projected brackets. For example, take Joe Lunardi’s bracket from today, 2/25.
The last 4 go to the play-in round. Notice that he has 2 of them (Vandy/Cincy) as 11 seeds and 2 more (Tulsa/Butler) as 12 seeds. He has 3 auto bid winners (Temple, St. Mary's, and Monmouth) on the 11 seed line, which would seem to indicate that, assuming they win their conference tourneys, they will have just crept up into "worthy" resume status. Given that Lunardi has 45 teams seeded 1-11, his cut line appears to be 47, 48, or 49, depending on where he ranks Tulsa and Butler relative to the other three 12 seeds.
Finally, in case you were wondering, I think WSU is probably in the low 30s of the S-Curve if the committee created one as of today. With an eventual cut line in the mid to upper 40s, they've got plenty of room to fall and still be safe.
What I have done in this post is put together a list to help us identify where this year’s cut will fall. From here on, comments like “best case” or “worst case” scenario will be from the perspective of other bubble teams hoping to make the cut and get a bid. Historically, a best case scenario is a cut line around #50, while a worst case scenario is a cut line around #45. This means there are normally 18-23 undeserving teams who earn auto bids and knock teams in the 50s and 60s into the NIT.
Tier 1 - Leagues without an atlarge contender (17)
17 conferences lack a single team with a deserving resume. Regardless of how things play out, they will be sending a bid thief dancing.
Tier 2 - Other probable 1 bid leagues (5)
MAAC - Monmouth
Sun Belt - Arkansas Little Rock
Big West - Hawaii
Horizon - Valparaiso
Mountain West - San Diego St
There is only a small chance that any of these 5 teams can suffer another loss and get an atlarge bid. Each is lacking the opportunities for quality wins to offset what would be a devastating loss to an already weak resume. However, in each case, if they win out and therefore don't suffer any more losses, I could see them rising high enough to just slip into the top 45 or so of the S-Curve and effectively have a worthy resume. Depending on your perspective, this could be considered meaningless, but my point is that a bubble team doesn't have to worry about any of these 5 passing them on the S-Curve by finishing strong and winning the auto bid. Getting passed in such a scenario merely moves the effective cut line down a spot. These conferences appear to be stuck with 1 bid either way, but they are different than tier 1 conferences in that the auto bid could go to a worthy team. This is a great example of why the cut line varies from year to year. It's all about how many of the 32 auto bids go to deserving teams. Should Monmouth, UALR, Hawaii, Valpo, or San Diego St win out, they will each be right on this threshold.
Likely 3 to 5 bid thieves from this group
Tier 3 - Possible one bid leagues (3)
MVC
WSU is obviously the only deserving team, and they are pretty much safely in. If WSU wins the MVC Tourney (likely, but far from a guarantee), no bids are stolen. If any of the other 9 win, an undeserving team steals a bid. Simple as that.
Chances of a bid thief - 15%
WCC
Although Gonzaga is currently on the bubble, if either the Zags or St. Mary’s wins the WCC Tourney, at that point the winner’s final resume will likely be atlarge worthy, meaning they won’t really count as a bid stealer. Only if someone else wins the WCC Tourney is a bid really lost to someone undeserving.
Chances of a bid thief - 10%
American
UConn, Temple, and Tulsa are similar to the situation in the WCC. None are yet locks for an atlarge, but if any of these 3 wins the American Tourney, they will have a deserving resume at that point. Cincinnati and Houston are in the next tier down. They may or may not be bid stealers if they win the auto-bid. Beyond those 5, the rest would indeed be thieves.
Chances of a bid thief - 5%
Tier 4 - Multi Bid Leagues (Guaranteed of at least 3 bids) (7)
A10, ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12, SEC
So what does all this mean? Well, 17 conferences lack any type of atlarge worthy teams. This means their conference tournaments are guaranteed to provide an undeserving team into the field of 68. This is our baseline. This means that as a bubble team in 2016 hoping to get in, the best case scenario is that the cut line will fall at #51 on the committee’s S-Curve. If you are #52, and you didn’t earn an auto-bid, you are headed to the NIT.
Now on to the next group, which currently includes 5 conferences with one key team in each. None of these teams are likely to snag an atlarge bid if they need it, but any of the 5 could have an atlarge worthy resume if they win out. As discussed previously, they would no longer need the atlarge bid at that point, but for purposes of defining the cut line, this distinction matters. For now, I'll assume anywhere from 3 to all 5 of these conferences send a bid thief. Our cut line is now a range. Worst case 46, up to best case 48.
The next group includes 3 conferences which have a limited number of atlarge contenders. The American, WCC, and MVC could all easily be won by a worthy team, but there is a good chance at least one, if not more, provide a surprise and someone steals a bid. Best case, the favorites win these 3 leagues and no bids are stolen. Worst case, the 3 leagues provide 3 bid thieves. Our cut line range is now worst case 43, up to best case 48.
The final group includes the top 7 conferences. These conferences are deep, and the winners are very likely to be deserving teams. For all 7 conferences combined I only give about a 1-in-10 chance that a bid thief shows up anywhere in this group. Final cut line... worst case 42, best case 48.
Final Conclusions:
We can be absolutely certain the 51st best team in the country will NOT be receiving an atlarge bid this year. We can be almost as certain the 49th best team won't either. Most likely, the cut line will be around 45 or 46.
This becomes evident when you start looking at bracketologists’ actual projected brackets. For example, take Joe Lunardi’s bracket from today, 2/25.
The last 4 go to the play-in round. Notice that he has 2 of them (Vandy/Cincy) as 11 seeds and 2 more (Tulsa/Butler) as 12 seeds. He has 3 auto bid winners (Temple, St. Mary's, and Monmouth) on the 11 seed line, which would seem to indicate that, assuming they win their conference tourneys, they will have just crept up into "worthy" resume status. Given that Lunardi has 45 teams seeded 1-11, his cut line appears to be 47, 48, or 49, depending on where he ranks Tulsa and Butler relative to the other three 12 seeds.
Finally, in case you were wondering, I think WSU is probably in the low 30s of the S-Curve if the committee created one as of today. With an eventual cut line in the mid to upper 40s, they've got plenty of room to fall and still be safe.
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