2016 Bracketology

[pinstripers]

Mark Adams
@EnthusiAdams
At least 5 #1 seeds have lost in conference touneys- Bucknell, North Florida, Wichita State, High Point, Belmont all lost and counting.

[shoxlax]

Mark Adams
@EnthusiAdams
At least 5 #1 seeds have lost in conference touneys- Bucknell, North Florida, Wichita State, High Point, Belmont all lost and counting.

Which is exactly why those conferences should skip the post season tournament? No chance of a second bid outside of us in that bunch and almost zero chance of winning an NCAA tourney game making their members more money

[ShockerFever]

There maybe some truth here. Not the conspiracy stuff, but our fate may hinge on LSU. Launari had them out and us in, Palm the opposite. I for one will be cheering for them to drop their first SEC tourney game.

Palm has LSU in?

Bahahahahahaha. What a complete moron.

[WillieJeffJeffries]

Who are these imbeciles on CBSSN?

Brendon Haywood was adamant WSU shouldn't be in "because they have beaten nobody and don't have a single signature win".

Seth Davis agreed and added LSU has a better resume and that the Shockers have "no argument".

How are these people employed?

And as we speak, Andy Katz is on ESPN2 saying WSU is in and listed the reasons for inclusion.

Seth Davis is a schitzo so I don't trust him. Jerry Palm has been discussed ad nauseum for being an ignorant wanker. CBS seems to have something against WSU. Thankfully they only broadcast games and aren't committee members. But man, do they have an agenda. Eff em.

Jerry Palm has a very weak track record. CBS' other guys aren't bracketologists, they are sports commentators. Just think of all the ridiculous things Mark Adams has said. Same classification of employment for these CBS fellas.

Palm is not getting inside info. He's a broken clock. You know how often those are right.

Just stop with the conspiracy nonsense. These guys are gonna look just as dumb as Nance and Packer in '06. Shox are in, and may well even do some damage once they get their assignment.

Not a conspiracy at all, just a fact that CBS/NCAA would rather have Ben Simmons in the tourney than WSU...or any other bubble team for that matter. Don't kid yourself, CBS has a lot control over who get in, the money is too big. Palm works for CBS..... he gets info. IMO, WSU is still less than 50/50 to get in. Save this, you can repost it next Sunday if I'm wrong, but if LSU wins one game in the SEC tourney they are probably in....which is a joke.

[choida]

Not a conspiracy at all, just a fact that CBS/NCAA would rather have Ben Simmons in the tourney than WSU...or any other bubble team for that matter. Don't kid yourself, CBS has a lot control over who get in, the money is too big. Palm works for CBS..... he gets info. IMO, WSU is still less than 50/50 to get in. Save this you can repost it next Sunday if I'm wrong but if LSU wins one game in the SEC tourney they are probably in....which is a joke.

LSU will lose in the first round...book it

[Shocktoberfest]

Just curious. Does anybody know how our resume compares to 2013? I really don't remember. But our position feels similar.

[Dave Stalwart]

Just curious. Does anybody know how our resume compares to 2013? I really don't remember. But our position feels similar.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/year/2013/sort/RPI

This says we were about 38 in the rpi

[HenryMuto]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/year/2013/sort/RPI

This says we were about 38 in the rpi

Ah 2013 I remember that year well. In early February you guys went through a losing streak losing 3 straight games at home to Indiana State then at Northern Iowa then at Southern Illinois and a lot of people on here were writing off your NCAA chances but if you are able to go back and look it up you will I was on here saying everything was going to be fine and you guys would still make the NCAA tournament and I predicted you as a 9 seed on Selection Sunday and that is exactly what you got a 9 seed then went on to make the Final Four which included a win over Ohio State. You also lost your last 2 regular season games that year made the finals of the MVC tournament and still got a bid.

You went 26-8 in 2013 (12-6 in conf) you had an RPI of 37 heading into Selection Sunday. Non Con SOS was 64, overall SOS was 92, you were 3-2 vs top 50 RPI, 5-3 vs 51-100, 11-3 vs 101-200, 7-0 vs 201+

[choida]

Head of selection committee got asked by Seth Davis about Wichita state... No specifics given, but got a feeling they do take into account injuries and regular season champions that don't win conference tourney...

[HenryMuto]

http://basketballpredictions.blogspot.com/

For most of the season we thought that the most interesting resume on Selection Sunday would be LSU, but with their fade it now looks like the most interesting case will be Wichita State. In terms of a traditional resume, Wichita State really looks like an NIT team. The Missouri Valley was weak this season, so that 16-2 conference mark doesn't mean much. They went just 1-4 against the RPI Top 50 (the win came over Utah), and just 4-7 against the RPI Top 100. For the moment, their RPI is sitting 47th.

That said, Wichita State has two things going for it. First of all, they played much better in the second half of the season after getting their full roster together, and the Selection Committee has always weighed late season games more than early season games. Second of all, we saw for the first time last season that analytical ratings like Pomeroy were taken into account a little bit. You can read my analysis on that latter point here. In short, it's not that their Pomeroy rating (currently 10th) will be given a heavy weighting. They're not earning a 3 seed, or anything close to it. But what we saw last year was that Pomeroy was used as a tiebreaker, to slide teams up or down a line. Basically, some members of the Selection Committee finally realized that good ratings of team strength exist and wanted to incorporate them a little bit. If Wichita State and another team have otherwise very similar resumes, Pomeroy could be used as that tiebreaker to put Wichita State in.

So does Wichita State end up getting in? At this point it's close to a coin flip, and it's going to come down to how strong the bubble looks a week from now. But it would be a mistake to say "They only have one quality win, so they're not getting in". The evidence from last year says that simply is not true anymore.

10. Wichita State

[KC Shox]

Everyone knew, well at least a lot of people knew, it would take a spot in the Valley championship game to pretty much solidify an at-large bid. Any other scenario would place the Shox in peril. So why would our hopes rest on one last game with UNI? Because, other than one good win at HOME against Utah, the Shox did absolutely nada when it mattered the most.

You don't blow 16 point second half leads to a team that lost 14 games. The injury argument with FVV has lost all its luster as the Shox have lost 4 games since he's been back. If we can lose twice to NIU and once to ISUr with Fred in the lineup, what makes any of you so sure he wouldn't have laid an egg to Iowa or USC even if we did have him?

Point of fact is, we have one notable win. There are numerous bubble teams with far more notable wins than us. While 8 losses are less than some of these bubble teams, the Shox benefitted by feasting on crappy Valley teams not to mention 50% of our wins come against 200 plus RPI and a non D1 teams. Pretty weak.

Our margin of error after FVV went down was extremely small and the boys didn't handle business. I blame the sophomores who failed to demonstrate a modicum of improvement and failed to take the pressure off FVV and RB. Oh well, can't cry now over spilled milk.

[choida]

If I were Evansville I'd be pissed that northern Iowa has already beat them before the games been played

[HenryMuto]

The more I think about it the more I think you guys are the prefect "First Four" team candidate. Many times since that has come into play a team that is similar to yours a questionable paper resume but a team everyone knows has talent gets thrown into the First Four as a prove it to be in type thing. Win your way into the tournament type of deal.

2011 they threw VCU and UAB into the first four with a similar resumes

2012 it was Iona (0 top 50 wins, 5 top 100 wins), RPI 40, 25-7 from a mid major conference and 4 losses to teams outside top 100 RPI

2013 it was Saint Mary's 26-6, 14-2, RPI 30, 1-3 vs top 50, 5 top 100 wins

But the case that gives me the most hope of you guys making it was the 2013 case of Middle Tennessee (also the reason I was one of the very few in 2013 to get all 68 teams right because I was one of the few that put in Middle Tennessee)
They had an RPI 29, 28-5 record but 1-3 vs top 50 and 0-0 vs 51-100....they are the only team to ever get a bid with just 1 top 100 win but the key for them that year was a Non Conf SOS of 9.

This is where I think you make your case your non conf SOS of around 10 and the FVV injury. I could see you getting an 11 seed in the first four.

Just spit balling here will make my official declaration next Sunday after I see what happens around the next week in tournaments.

[ShockerFever]

Everyone knew, well at least a lot of people knew, it would take a spot in the Valley championship game to pretty much solidify an at-large bid. Any other scenario would place the Shox in peril. So why would our hopes rest on one last game with UNI? Because, other than one good win at HOME against Utah, the Shox did absolutely nada when it mattered the most.

You don't blow 16 point second half leads to a team that lost 14 games. The injury argument with FVV has lost all its luster as the Shox have lost 4 games since he's been back. If we can lose twice to NIU and once to ISUr with Fred in the lineup, what makes any of you so sure he wouldn't have laid an egg to Iowa or USC even if we did have him?

Point of fact is, we have one notable win. There are numerous bubble teams with far more notable wins than us. While 8 losses are less than some of these bubble teams, the Shox benefitted by feasting on crappy Valley teams not to mention 50% of our wins come against 200 plus RPI and a non D1 teams. Pretty weak.

Our margin of error after FVV went down was extremely small and the boys didn't handle business. I blame the sophomores who failed to demonstrate a modicum of improvement and failed to take the pressure off FVV and RB. Oh well, can't cry now over spilled milk.

Give us 20 opportunities at Top 50 wins, with half of them at home, and I guarantee you we'd have a sizable amount of wins in that category.

So basically, you're saying WSU can't lose. At all. Ever.

I was frustrated really bad yesterday but your posts are starting to let the positivity creep back in to me. Thanks a lot, dingus.

[Play Angry]

Everyone knew, well at least a lot of people knew, it would take a spot in the Valley championship game to pretty much solidify an at-large bid. Any other scenario would place the Shox in peril. So why would our hopes rest on one last game with UNI? Because, other than one good win at HOME against Utah, the Shox did absolutely nada when it mattered the most.

You don't blow 16 point second half leads to a team that lost 14 games. The injury argument with FVV has lost all its luster as the Shox have lost 4 games since he's been back. If we can lose twice to NIU and once to ISUr with Fred in the lineup, what makes any of you so sure he wouldn't have laid an egg to Iowa or USC even if we did have him?

Point of fact is, we have one notable win. There are numerous bubble teams with far more notable wins than us. While 8 losses are less than some of these bubble teams, the Shox benefitted by feasting on crappy Valley teams not to mention 50% of our wins come against 200 plus RPI and a non D1 teams. Pretty weak.

Our margin of error after FVV went down was extremely small and the boys didn't handle business. I blame the sophomores who failed to demonstrate a modicum of improvement and failed to take the pressure off FVV and RB. Oh well, can't cry now over spilled milk.

6.5 out of 10. Glad you are finally trolling like a man instead of the weak stupid little ***** you've been for the last several years.

Congrats on the progress.