2016 Bracketology

[Stickboy46]

The thing that worries me, is the tournament selection committee seems to be trending towards more of a 'who you've beaten' rather than how few bad losses you have.

It's good we've beat most everyone we were supposed to, but we have beat 1 tournament quality team. With losses to IlSU and UNI (at home no less) could you really fault Jerry Palm that much?

Absolutely! .. He's using ONE data point and ignoring the 6 or 7 other data points that the committee uses.

[SHOCKvalue]

Dear lord people... if you want to use RPI as a cited metric then here it is:

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-rpi

^That's the official NCAA RPI, and as of it's effective starting date each season, it renders the other RPI simulators moot and irrelevant.

Do you prefer to get your time from a real Rolex from Switzerland, or one from a street vendor with a funny looking font, powered by a battery, and "Made in Switzerland" mis-spelled.

[Stickboy46]

1-4 against RPI top 50. 4-6 against the top 100, with 3 of the 4 wins being against finge top 100 teams that aren't even close to being bubble teams. Current ESPN RPI rank is 45 with losses to #94 and #105 teams. I don't know where you're getting all the analytics favor the shockers haha.

And just to clarify, my point was not that we won't make the tournament or that we are even in jeopardy of not making it. My point was that some people are talking 6 or 7 seed when it honestly wouldn't surprise me at all if we wound up with an 11 seed. We had a much stronger resume last year ( RPI #15, 2-2 against top 50, 7-4 against top 100, worst lost against #82 George Washington) and wound up with a 7 seed...

Nothing you listed is analytical

KenPom : 8
BPI : 23
Sagarin : 19
NPI : 11
Massey Composite : 25

All point to safely in.

Even RPI and KPI are all mid 30s which should be safely in.

[SHOCKvalue]

I don't know where you're getting all the analytics favor the shockers haha.

Haslametrics - #7
Kenpom - #8
NPI - #11
Sagarin - #19
Coaches Poll - #23
BPI - #23
Massey Composite - #25
AP Poll - #28
NCAA RPI - #38

Average - 20.2R

That equates to the first-up #6 seed on the s-curve, if it were just solely based on polls and analytics. We then get punished anywhere from one to five seed lines because we lost four games with serious injury and eligibility issues, lost another road game against a solid opponent due to the whims of the officiating crew, and then legitimately lost two games in conference to not-at-all-terrible teams.

[ShockerFever]

You'll have to excuse Jhook. He can spell analytics (amazingly). He just doesn't know what it means.

[ShockerFever]

1 Top-50 win..

And?..

It's cool that you identified 1 metric of about 700 that are used to identify an at-large team.

Also, that Top 50 win also happens to be a Top 10 win. Not that it matters.

[WuShock Reaper]

Top 40 RPI
Since 1990-91, 956 (96.3%) out of a total 993 NCAA teams have been rated in the top 40 RPI on Selection Sunday and have made the NCAA Tournament.

This is why I think the RPI is a good indicator on who makes the Big Dance.


Top 50 RPI
Since 1990-91, 47 MVC teams have been rated in the top 50 RPI on Selection Sunday. Of those teams, 34 (72.3%) made the NCAA Tournament, while 13 (27.7%) participated in the NIT.

This is why I think our semi-okay RPI is making me nervous as of today.

Source: MVC Media Guide

[Stickboy46]

And?..

It's cool that you identified 1 metric of about 700 that are used to identify an at-large team.

Also, that Top 50 win also happens to be a Top 10 win. Not that it matters.

And a 17 point win at that

[OregonShocker]

So, IF we were to lose and drop to a 12 seed, where does the auto bid winner go? I'd think below 12, right? They wouldn't get seeded above us just because of the tourney win, right?

[pie n eye]

Is there a special category for fringe top 100 wins now?

Lol

[60Shock]

Anyone.

I fully admit I am at a total loss when it comes to Bracketology.

I simply don't understand this hang-up on our having just four top 100 wins.

We have three top 90-100 wins and one top TEN win, which in my, admittedly outdated book, is significantly better as a whole than having just four 90-100 wins.

Are not the quality of the wins like say: one top 10, one top 25, one top 50, and one top 100, factored in? Or is now just the total number of top 100 wins?

Wasn't too long ago it was top 50 wins, or so I thought?

[AndShock]

So, IF we were to lose and drop to a 12 seed, where does the auto bid winner go? I'd think below 12, right? They wouldn't get seeded above us just because of the tourney win, right?

If we drop to a 12 (or equal to a 12 on the S-curve) we aren't making the tournament.

[Heinro]

So, IF we were to lose and drop to a 12 seed, where does the auto bid winner go? I'd think below 12, right? They wouldn't get seeded above us just because of the tourney win, right?

If another team from the MVC makes the tournament, they are looking at a 14 seed most likely. Maybe Evansville could get a 13.

[HenryMuto]

It's a fascinating debate on Wichita State and how so many disagree on where they stand right now anywhere from between a 7 seed and safely in to needing the auto bid and out.

My gut tells me Wichita State is going to get a bid as long as they win their quarter finals game even a loss in the semis will not be enough to keep them out. I don't know where you will be seeded but I will take my guess after I see how everything plays out during championship week.

The RPI numbers are not in your favor (except non conf SOS) but the kenpom and others are off the charts in your favor. So what will the committee weigh more ? Who the heck knows. No one knows. Gut feeling your in if you win the quarters.

[wsushox1]

Anyone who hasn't already figured out by now that counting top X or top Y wins is mainly a statistical excuse to support whatever conclusion the person counting them wants to draw, probably is never going to figure it out.

Edit: And yes, wsushox, I can fault Jerry Palm for being inept, and I do. You may be suffering from too much exposure to the air in your hometown.

100% agree with you here on the first point. I'm not saying I think WSU is out, I'm pretty sure an at large bid is in store. But everyone saying Jerry Palm is an idiot for his opinion is interesting because he has a valid point.

And Lawrence is not my hometown. Far from it.