2016 Bracketology

[IdahoShocker]

Bob Lutz latest commentary on WSU and Arch Madness. http://www.kansas.com/sports/spt-col...e63816717.html

"...So, this could be a pins and needles weekend for Wichita State fans. And unless WSU wins the tournament championship, it’d probably be a good idea to pour yourself a vodka martini as you watch Selection Sunday on March 13.Because there’s just no telling..."

Read more here: http://www.kansas.com/sports/spt-col...#storylink=cpy

[wsushox1]

Not surprised.

1 Top-50 win..

[WuShock16]

1 Top-50 win..

4 Top 100 wins (currently).
Top 10-15 non-conf SoS (depending on the day)
9-3 road record
Worst loss was to a borderline Top 100 team. (South Carolina has three losses worse than our worst loss)

So yes, Jerry Palm is wrong.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

1 Top-50 win..

WSU got a 7 seed last year with only 2.

[WuShock16]

Bracket matrix...
South Carolina - Average seed = 8.72
Wichita State - Average seed = 8.90

Jerry Palm is an outlier. General consensus is that South Carolina and WSU are looking at very similar seeding.

True. I just want his explanation because we certainly wouldn't be safely in his bracket with those three bad losses, even if we had three extra good wins. The double standard aggravates me.

[WSUwatcher]

I cannot imagine a bigger waste of time than this thread.

If that's true, pin, you're just not trying very hard.

We've had many bigger wastes of time than this -- some would even say SN specializes in them. If nothing else, this thread has given Jamar a chance to show off his research and analytical chops and in the process brought him and Fever together, which is almost like making friends of Benjamin Netanyahu and Barack Obama; it's highlighted the incompetence of Jerry Palm; and it's challenged Henry Muto to be more attentive to his research instead of just blindly quoting lazy and cliche-ridden online "journalists."

That's darn near a public service.

[wsushox1]

The thing that worries me, is the tournament selection committee seems to be trending towards more of a 'who you've beaten' rather than how few bad losses you have.

It's good we've beat most everyone we were supposed to, but we have beat 1 tournament quality team. With losses to IlSU and UNI (at home no less) could you really fault Jerry Palm that much?

[AZ Shocker]

could you really fault Jerry Palm that much?

Yes...cause he's probably in that group that gets a check from Nike and Addias.

[kochHead]

1.) What two other games do we drop? Kinda hard to say when most of our wins are laughers.
2.) We aren't an Atlantic Sun level team. We would have to go 16-14 or something like that to garner a 14 seed. Now, how realistic is that line of thinking?

1) I said a game or two. So, Evansville would be one that we could of dropped, and at home no less.
2) You are correct in this regard, however a 12 seed as an at-large is not ridiculous.

[wsushox1]

Yes...cause he's probably in that group that gets a check from Nike and Addias.

He's an online journalist...he's not getting checks from either of those corporations.

[Heinro]

He keeps his job by getting clicks. CBS couldn't give 2 shits if he's any good at bracketology or not as long as he gets people to click on their site. In that regard, he's good at his job. He keeps the P5 honks clicking because even their bad teams are good in his eyes. He keeps the rest of us clicking to see what his piss poor excuse for a story will be this week.

My question on this, does WSU have an avid fan base that makes us a click machine and the one to pick on? Palm hasn't been the only one recently. Meaning, by saying we are NIT worthy do we drive more clicks than saying some other team is NIT bound?

[WSUwatcher]

WSU got a 7 seed last year with only 2.

... only one of which was non-conference, just like this year; and considering that Tulsa was exactly on the cut line (according to Warren Nolan, anyway) at #50, it was a pretty marginal top 50 compared to this season's thrashing of #8 Utah, which in turn was even better than last year's other top 50 win against the #11 UNIs. Last year's team had the advantage of playing in a stronger league, and of being healthier, and yet piled up exactly one more top 50 win. But there was never any doubt WSU would be in the tournament, and they promptly doubled their top 50 wins total once they were.

Anyone who hasn't already figured out by now that counting top X or top Y wins is mainly a statistical excuse to support whatever conclusion the person counting them wants to draw, probably is never going to figure it out.

Edit: And yes, wsushox, I can fault Jerry Palm for being inept, and I do. You may be suffering from too much exposure to the air in your hometown.

[AZ Shocker]

He's an online journalist...he's not getting checks from either of those corporations.

...then he's just a schmuck. But where there's politics there's a money trail. Only my opinion of course.

[KC Shox]

Unless we lose prior to the Valley Championship game, I am not worried. The committee always preaches about borderline teams not scheduling tough enough. We did that. They'll understand we didn't have FVV early on, so they'll excuse the losses. ISUR and NIU are not bad losses. Those two teams have a real possibility of becoming 20 game winners (if you include their non D1 wins, they have one each). They will not let FVV or RB finish their careers in the NIT given everything they have done at WSU and in the tourney. Just sayin'.

[Jhook89]

All of the analytics favor the Shockers, not just the KenPom.

1-4 against RPI top 50. 4-6 against the top 100, with 3 of the 4 wins being against finge top 100 teams that aren't even close to being bubble teams. Current ESPN RPI rank is 45 with losses to #94 and #105 teams. I don't know where you're getting all the analytics favor the shockers haha.

And just to clarify, my point was not that we won't make the tournament or that we are even in jeopardy of not making it. My point was that some people are talking 6 or 7 seed when it honestly wouldn't surprise me at all if we wound up with an 11 seed. We had a much stronger resume last year ( RPI #15, 2-2 against top 50, 7-4 against top 100, worst lost against #82 George Washington) and wound up with a 7 seed...