2016 Bracketology

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

That said, those who forcus on the "who've you beaten" side of the equation could easily take Oregon State ahead of us. #31 in RPi, 6-6 in top 50 RPI games, with two wins against the top 10 in RPI
Their Kenpom rating is 62, but that "who've you beaten" crowd doesn't know what advanced metrics are, in my opinion. (They'd also be likely to say that we lost to Alabama head to head, so there)

I'll give you (and @HenryMuto:) Oregon State as a maybe, possibly, could pass WSU. However, they are very likely to go 8-10 and finish 9th out of 12 in the Pac 12. I guess they are worth keeping an eye on (unlike the other teams on Joe Lunardi's list of first 8 out) but I just don't expect them to pass WSU on the S-Curve.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

For what it's worth Palm had your seed exactly right last year (7 seed) and Joey had you as a 5 seed thinking you guys were much higher seed than you were.

And skipping 2014 since everyone had WSU as a 1 seed, look at 2013. Palm had WSU as an 11, they received a 9. Palm has absolutely no special track record of projecting the Shox, other than he is consistently on the extreme negative end of the spectrum. In 2015, the consensus was 5 or 6. His 7 seed wasn't far from consensus. This year, the current consensus is 8 or 9 right now. Palm suggesting that 2-1 in St. Louis would knock WSU all the way out makes him quite an outlier. Don't listen to him.

[SHOCKvalue]

If Joey was the committee and you were for sure a 7 seed right now then you are correct you have nothing to worry about win or lose because you would not drop from a 7 to out with 1 more loss. Joey though is not the committee so there is no way to know if they will see you as a 7 right now or an 11 right now.

For what it's worth Palm had your seed exactly right last year (7 seed) and Joey had you as a 5 seed thinking you guys were much higher seed than you were.

So safe to say Joey might be wrong. Joey actually finished great last year too despite the miss on your team. He scored 343 pts and was 4th among the 136 bracket people.

I don't harbor any ill feelings towards you or anything, but I desperately wish you'd simply put your WSU Bracketology on mute. In your eyes WSU is an 11 or 12, even if they get in the tournament at all. Great. Fine. We get it. But please stop with making this thread your personal Groundhog Day movie, because I feel like the entire forum has collectively had this conversation with you more times than I can possibly count.

[pogo]

.....and imparts his worries on the rest of us.

I have no worries. Every day a holiday and every meal a feast....at least thats what they used to tell me going through OCS in the Marine Corps.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

How many bids will be stolen? Say you lose in the MVC tournament that means 1 bid will be stolen there so maybe you need to worry more about the teams that are already in and which ones would need to fall out from the last 4 in/last 8 to keep you in.

I already did a very detailed analysis showing that it is extremely likely that the final cut line will fall in the 45-48 range. This is inclusive of bid thieves.

http://shockernet.net/forum/showthread.php?21393-2016-Atlarge-Cut-Line

Lunardi has WSU at #28 on his S-Curve. 80% of the 20 brackets updated today on the bracket matrix have WSU as a 9 seed or better, meaning S-Curve rank #36 or better. Half have WSU as an 8 seed or better (#32 or better). The consensus is that WSU is currently 10-20 spots ahead of where the eventual cut will fall. How wildly wrong do you think the vast majority of bracketologists must be right now to suggest that WSU will fall all the way to the 45-49 range two weeks from today if they lose a single game in St. Louis?

[KC Shox]

Enjoy, then let's hear what you have to say

http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2016-02-18/march-madness-bracket-how-68-teams-are-selected-division-i

[kochHead]

I am willing to bet we play Loyola, UNI, and ISUr. UNI has an rpi of 93 and ISUr is at 106. ISUr, if we do end up playing them, will have beaten Eville (91 rpi), so they could move up a little. I think the best case for us would be to play and beat UNI and Eville for the rpi wins. That adds two more top 100 wins to our resume assuming they stay top 100.

[Capitol Shock II]

You'll know we're solidly in the field of 68 when nationally teams like Alabama, Oregon State and Colorado begin rooting for us to win our conference tournament.

[ShockerFever]

Fever loves thee.

Don't push it, Señor Ricardo.

[ShockerFever]

If Joey was the committee and you were for sure a 7 seed right now then you are correct you have nothing to worry about win or lose because you would not drop from a 7 to out with 1 more loss. Joey though is not the committee so there is no way to know if they will see you as a 7 right now or an 11 right now.

For what it's worth Palm had your seed exactly right last year (7 seed) and Joey had you as a 5 seed thinking you guys were much higher seed than you were.

So safe to say Joey might be wrong. Joey actually finished great last year too despite the miss on your team. He scored 343 pts and was 4th among the 136 bracket people.

So you think Lunardi is 20 teams off on his projections for WSU? Even though the consensus is much closer to his line of thinking than what Palm is putting out there? And yet in your argument you use Jerry Palm?

You're gonna have to do better than that, chief.

[fansince80s]

I've never liked that we play a week before the BS conf plays theirs. I always felt people forget and look for the surprise winners a day or 2 before selection Sunday.

[ShockerFever]

People need to also remember that when using all the metrics and what not, that Louisville and SMU will not be included in the field. So with RPI for example, you can automatically bump WSU up 2 spots. That's gonna be pretty significant.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I am willing to bet we play Loyola, UNI, and ISUr. UNI has an rpi of 93 and ISUr is at 106. ISUr, if we do end up playing them, will have beaten Eville (91 rpi), so they could move up a little. I think the best case for us would be to play and beat UNI and Eville for the rpi wins. That adds two more top 100 wins to our resume assuming they stay top 100.

Good post.

UNI will absolutely be a top 100 opponent if they make it past SIU on Friday and meet WSU in the semis. Even after losing to WSU, their final RPI would likely be in the 80s.
Evansville or ISUr would also both have secured top 100 status by the time they reached the finals.

If WSU wins the MVC Tourney, you can kiss goodbye all those stories about WSU lacking top 100 wins. (other than Palm, who will write one anyway and look dumb) At that point, there is a decent chance they have 8 top 100 wins on selection sunday and are looking at a 7 seed.

[Dave Stalwart]

Good post.

UNI will absolutely be a top 100 opponent if they make it past SIU on Friday and meet WSU in the semis. Even after losing to WSU, their final RPI would likely be in the 80s.
Evansville or ISUr would also both have secured top 100 status by the time they reached the finals.

If WSU wins the MVC Tourney, you can kiss goodbye all those stories about WSU lacking top 100 wins. (other than Palm, who will write one anyway and look dumb) At that point, there is a decent chance they have 8 top 100 wins on selection sunday and are looking at a 7 seed.

Pretty clutch by the valley, at the last possible moment squeezing three teams into the 90s to get us off the "bubble" :) I've always been a believer that Elgin is a mega genius mastermind...

[ShockdaWorld]

Pretty clutch by the valley, at the last possible moment squeezing three teams into the 90s to get us off the "bubble" :) I've always been a believer that Elgin is a mega genius mastermind...

^^^^^ I'll have some of what he's drinking. :)