2016 Bracketology

[ShockerFever]

no

Does no = yes?

[pinstripers]

Jesus, it's like playin cards with my brother's kids. Lunardi has us there because he is projecting us with the autobid. That's all. If we don't win the autobid his projections would change, might have us in, might not. Obviously we are one of the best 64 teams in the country, but that doesn't promise you a berth. Let's just run the table in St Louis. We lose there, in any round, and it's on us. Nobody else.

[ShockerFever]

Jesus, it's like playin cards with my brother's kids. Lunardi has us there because he is projecting us with the autobid. That's all. If we don't win the autobid his projections would change, might have us in, might not. Obviously we are one of the best 64 teams in the country, but that doesn't promise you a berth. Let's just run the table in St Louis. We lose there, in any round, and it's on us. Nobody else.

So you started an argument by stating the obvious? You made it seem like WSU is only in the field because of the autobid since there are no other Valley teams in the bracket. That's a moronic line of thinking when he has WSU as a 7 seed. Do you comprehend this? If WSU were to lose in St. Louis on Saturday or Sunday, do you really think they're gonna drop 5 seed lines?

The summary of this whole thing is that you worry too much.

[shoxlax]

So you started an argument by stating the obvious? You made it seem like WSU is only in the field because of the autobid since there are no other Valley teams in the bracket. That's a moronic line of thinking when he has WSU as a 7 seed. Do you comprehend this? If WSU were to lose in St. Louis on Saturday or Sunday, do you really think they're gonna drop 5 seed lines?

The summary of this whole thing is that you worry too much.

.....and imparts his worries on the rest of us.

[shockmonster]

.....and imparts his worries on the rest of us.

Or his is just trying to poke the Bear in a lot of Shockernetters.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

So you started an argument by stating the obvious? You made it seem like WSU is only in the field because of the autobid since there are no other Valley teams in the bracket. That's a moronic line of thinking when he has WSU as a 7 seed. Do you comprehend this? If WSU were to lose in St. Louis on Saturday or Sunday, do you really think they're gonna drop 5 seed lines?

The summary of this whole thing is that you worry too much.

This is beginning to freak me out. I log on and see ShockerFever making my arguments, with specificity and accuracy, for me.

What has this world come to?

[shoxlax]

This is beginning to freak me out. I log on and see ShockerFever making my arguments, with specificity and accuracy, for me.

What has this world come to?

I don't know, but when it gets right down to it, logic and facts are still the lowest common denominators between enemies-trumping conspiracy theories and fallacies.

[shoxlax]

http://www.ncaa.com/tickets/basketball-men/d1

Thought the prices etc, were interesting.

Jamar, could you put together an odds chart of where you think we will be-and for the naysayers include the NIT as one of the choices.

[pinstripers]

So you started an argument by stating the obvious? You made it seem like WSU is only in the field because of the autobid since there are no other Valley teams in the bracket. That's a moronic line of thinking when he has WSU as a 7 seed. Do you comprehend this? If WSU were to lose in St. Louis on Saturday or Sunday, do you really think they're gonna drop 5 seed lines?

The summary of this whole thing is that you worry too much.

..................

[Ricardo del Rio]

This is beginning to freak me out. I log on and see ShockerFever making my arguments, with specificity and accuracy, for me.

What has this world come to?

Fever loves thee.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

St. Bonaventure - possibly
George Washington - possibly
Alabama - possibly

For reference, WSU is KenPom #8, RPI #38 at the moment.

St. Bonaventure's KenPom rank is 82. Only 3 times in 14 years has anyone outside the KenPom top 70 received an atlarge bid, and all 3 were in the low 70s. 82 would blow away the old record. St. B's RPI is 34, almost identical to WSU's, and they will likely finish with no more top 100 wins than WSU. Their 2 bad losses are much worse than WSU's losses to UNI and ISU. Their average margin of victory has been terrible for any eye test that committee members might perform. In their last 5 games again teams outside the top 100, they have 4 single digit wins and a loss! The Shox are beating these types of teams by 20-30 a game! The Bonnies are a LONG way behind WSU at the moment.

George Washington's KenPom rank is 72 and their RPI is 61. They might finish with fewer top 100 wins than WSU and they have 2 absolutely horrid losses to #188 and #197 to go along with a 3rd loss outside the top 100. They are also far behind WSU's tier.

Alabama's KenPom rank is 81 and their RPI is 58. They too are about 10 spots worse than the all time worst KenPom rank to ever receive an atlarge. They are currently sitting on 6 top 100 wins, so there is no guarantee they finish with any more than the Shox do. Their 2 worst losses are worse than anything WSU has on its resume. At 8-8 in the SEC, they should be worried. The last time a .500 team in the 6th ranked conference went dancing was 2002!

Notice I didn't even mention WSU's early injuries in any of the above. Factor that in for whatever its worth and WSU has no need to worry about any of these teams knocking them into the NIT.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

http://www.ncaa.com/tickets/basketball-men/d1


Thought the prices etc, were interesting.

Jamar, could you put together an odds chart of where you think we will be-and for the naysayers include the NIT as one of the choices.

I put together a long post about where WSU might be headed a few weeks ago, back when a 4/5 seed seemed possible. Once you reach the 6-10 range, its a crapshoot for the most part. The only thing I can really say is that the Pac 12 is loaded with teams that could end up on the same line as WSU. That seems to help the odds that WSU doesn't get shipped out to Spokane, but really, you just can't predict much of anything for these mid level seeds. The committee has enough rules and guidelines about avoiding certain match ups, spreading around the various teams from the same conference, etc., that the final bracket often makes little sense as far as location for anyone outside of the protected seed lines.

I will say this... NIT odds are the same as the chances that there is any truth to Donald Trump's claim that he's been audited 12 years in a row because he is such a devout Christian.

[SHOCKvalue]

Jesus, it's like playin cards with my brother's kids. Lunardi has us there because he is projecting us with the autobid. That's all. If we don't win the autobid his projections would change, might have us in, might not. Obviously we are one of the best 64 teams in the country, but that doesn't promise you a berth. Let's just run the table in St Louis. We lose there, in any round, and it's on us. Nobody else.

By showing WSU as the MVC Tournament Champion as well as a seeded participant in the NCAA Tournament, Lunardi (and others) are simply making two assumptions. Those assumptions aren't necessarily inter-related.

[Shockers5150]

Shox will get in. They are a team with a good story. Committee will get them in. But wsu is going to win MVC tourney, so it's a moot point. :)

[HenryMuto]

So you started an argument by stating the obvious? You made it seem like WSU is only in the field because of the autobid since there are no other Valley teams in the bracket. That's a moronic line of thinking when he has WSU as a 7 seed. Do you comprehend this? If WSU were to lose in St. Louis on Saturday or Sunday, do you really think they're gonna drop 5 seed lines?

The summary of this whole thing is that you worry too much.

If Joey was the committee and you were for sure a 7 seed right now then you are correct you have nothing to worry about win or lose because you would not drop from a 7 to out with 1 more loss. Joey though is not the committee so there is no way to know if they will see you as a 7 right now or an 11 right now.

For what it's worth Palm had your seed exactly right last year (7 seed) and Joey had you as a 5 seed thinking you guys were much higher seed than you were.

So safe to say Joey might be wrong. Joey actually finished great last year too despite the miss on your team. He scored 343 pts and was 4th among the 136 bracket people.