2016 Bracketology

[Zubcut]

Better conference is not in and of itself meaningful.

SMU finished 12-7 in the 7th ranked conference.
WSU going 17-3 or 18-3 in the 13th ranked conference is at worst a wash.

Agreed. But at least SMU had chances for "good" wins and even "good" losses in their conference. The Shockers only have chances for "bad" losses. All SMU's top 25 wins were in conference. Those top 25 wins is what got SMU into the top 25. They were still in the top 25 after losing their last three games including the first round of the American conference tourney.

[Slalomshocker]

@Slalomshocker, if Texas beats KSU and OSU, loses to KU and OU, and then loses to the Big 12's 3 seed in the quarterfinals, their RPI will still be about 30 on selection sunday. They will still have a strong resume. Could WSU catch them on the S-Curve? Maybe, but doubtful.

Anything better than a 2-3 finish and Texas is ahead of WSU on selection sunday. 1-4 or 2-4 and WSU probably passes them.

Texas losing at K-State tonight would be a big help.

I did look at Baylor's resume...they would have to tank for WSU to catch them. I guess I'm not sold on Texas, though I do see your point. WSU has a weak resume to over take someone that does have quality wins. Its going to be very interesting how the rest of the season plays out nationally.

[KC Shox]

Jamar-

Is Texas really capable of holding the 6 line ahead of WSU if they go 2-2, losing the OU/KU games? The caveat is WSU winning out I guess. If WSU loses the 6 seed is not happening, and likely neither is the 7. I just see Texas and Baylor as the two 6 seeds most likely to lose, and there for be passable for WSU. Not to say someone below WSU doesn't jump ahead and keep WSU pretty much stagnant. I don't see Texas or Baylor going more than 2-2 to finish and I dont think either make the B12 Finals. At some point the total # of losses has to count right?

I would say yes. Texas has been missing their starting center, Cameron Ridley who was averaging 12.7 PPG, since late December. So if we expect the committee to take into consideration FVV missing for half of our non-con games, then the committee is probably going to do the same with Texas.

[Play Angry]

Would depend on whether Ridley returns, and if he is 100% in those return games, prior to the tournament.

They have been hoping for an "early March" reappearance from Ridley but no word lately on a more specific date. They are not leaving much room for error if the timetable gets pushed back.

[Shockers5150]

I had to laugh when doug G tweeted that usc is better than wsu. Based off a 3pt win without fred or connor?

[shoxlax]

I had to laugh when doug G tweeted that usc is better than wsu. Based off a 3pt win without fred or connor?

Or Landry

[HenryMuto]

Have ANY of these bracket experts EVER picked a perfect bracket, or even routinely 90%? I'd love evidence...

I'm no expert (not on the bracket matrix) but I have kept a spreadsheet since 2003 on my picks.

I picked all 68 teams in 2013 (sadly the only time I got every team right)
8 times I got all but 1 team right
4 times I missed 2 teams
Total 844/860 = 98.14%
At large 436/452 = 96.5% (True number of % of correct picks) since Auto bids are automatic

2015 - 66/68 (UCLA, Mississippi) I had Colorado State and Temple in
2014 - 67/68 (NC State) I had SMU in
2013 - 68/68 Bazinga all 68 correct
2012 - 67/68 (Iona) I had Drexel in
2011 - 66/68 (VCU, UAB) I had Colorado and Va Tech in
2010 - 64/65 (Florida) I had Va Tech in
2009 - 64/65 (Arizona) I had Saint Mary's in
2008 - 64/65 (Oregon) I had Illinois State in
2007 - 63/65 (Stanford, Arkansas) I had Syracuse and Drexel in
2006 - 63/65 (Utah State, Air Force) I had Cincinnati and Missouri State (RPI 21!) in
2005 - 64/65 (Northern Iowa) I had Buffalo in
2004 - 64/65 (UTEP) I had Utah State in
2003 - 64/65 (Boston College) I had Alabama in

[SHOCKvalue]

I'm no expert (not on the bracket matrix) but I have kept a spreadsheet since 2003 on my picks.

I picked all 68 teams in 2013 (sadly the only time I got every team right)
8 times I got all but 1 team right
4 times I missed 2 teams
Total 844/860 = 98.14%

2015 - 66/68 (UCLA, Mississippi) I had Colorado State and Temple in
2014 - 67/68 (NC State) I had SMU in
2013 - 68/68 Bazinga all 68 correct
2012 - 67/68 (Iona) I had Drexel in
2011 - 66/68 (VCU, UAB) I had Colorado and Va Tech in
2010 - 64/65 (Florida) I had Va Tech in
2009 - 64/65 (Arizona) I had Saint Mary's in
2008 - 64/65 (Oregon) I had Illinois State in
2007 - 63/65 (Stanford, Arkansas) I had Syracuse and Drexel in
2006 - 63/65 (Utah State, Air Force) I had Cincinnati and Missouri State (RPI 21!) in
2005 - 64/65 (Northern Iowa) I had Buffalo in
2004 - 64/65 (UTEP) I had Utah State in
2003 - 64/65 (Boston College) I had Alabama in

That's certainly impressive, but I think the context of the convo was not just a perfectly inclusive bracket, but a perfectly seeded bracket.

[WuShock16]

This forthcoming comment isn't picking on Henry as it appears that he has had a good run with his bracket prognostications. You have my respect! :good:

That said, I have skepticism on the art of bracketology. If someone picks a "perfect bracket" this year, they shouldn't take credit for going 68/68. 32 of those 68 teams are predictable auto bids. Thus, there is no skill involved with coming up with those. Also, if you follow college basketball at all, the first 20 at-large bids...maybe even 25...should be pretty easy to guess. The last couple of spots are where skill and knowledge come into play.

Now, this is to say nothing about those who not only are able to pick the field correctly but also have good accuracy with seeding.

If Joe Lunardi and the like really want to prove their genius, show us how well the bracket turned out compared to their very first bracket released. I am looking at his bracket from August and it looks a bit off. Gonzaga was a 3 but probably needs to win its conference tournament. Xavier will probably be better than a 9 seed.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/36

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

@WuShock16:, you are correct that it is more about getting seeding accurate than picking teams. Selecting the field usually comes down to picking 4 of 8 teams to take as your last 4 in, last 4 out. Beyond that, teams are either known to be in or known to be out without much question about it.

Regarding the accuracy of brackets from weeks/months prior to selection sunday, the problem is that more games are played and things change. Should a bracket from right after the WSU loss @ Seton Hall have looked the same as when WSU was 11-0 in the MVC 6 weeks later? What about 1 week after that when WSU had lost 2 of 3? It is often unfair to compare someone's outlook for a team back in December to the resume the committee looks at in March.

[molly jabali]

I'm no expert (not on the bracket matrix) but I have kept a spreadsheet since 2003 on my picks.

I picked all 68 teams in 2013 (sadly the only time I got every team right)
8 times I got all but 1 team right
4 times I missed 2 teams
Total 844/860 = 98.14%
At large 436/452 = 96.5% (True number of % of correct picks) since Auto bids are automatic

2015 - 66/68 (UCLA, Mississippi) I had Colorado State and Temple in
2014 - 67/68 (NC State) I had SMU in
2013 - 68/68 Bazinga all 68 correct
2012 - 67/68 (Iona) I had Drexel in
2011 - 66/68 (VCU, UAB) I had Colorado and Va Tech in
2010 - 64/65 (Florida) I had Va Tech in
2009 - 64/65 (Arizona) I had Saint Mary's in
2008 - 64/65 (Oregon) I had Illinois State in
2007 - 63/65 (Stanford, Arkansas) I had Syracuse and Drexel in
2006 - 63/65 (Utah State, Air Force) I had Cincinnati and Missouri State (RPI 21!) in
2005 - 64/65 (Northern Iowa) I had Buffalo in
2004 - 64/65 (UTEP) I had Utah State in
2003 - 64/65 (Boston College) I had Alabama in

Then YOU are in the wrong business!!!:)

[OregonShocker]

So, REALLY what we want to know is whether we'd be replaced by one of the current "last 4" if we don't get an automatic. It seems we are in, in that case. Perhaps a low seed, but at least in.

[Zubcut]

I heard an interview with Palm who says he never looks at analytical sites like KenPom because "I don't want that to cloud my thinking". When told that WSU was #12 in KenPom he's said that just proves those sites are meaningless because it's ridiculous to think WSU is anywhere close to the 12th best team in the country. He says this despite the fact that over the last several years KenPom and BPI rankings have been proven to be far, far better at predicting tournament success than RPI or seeding. In fact RPI rankings have proven to be the worst predictor of tournament success.
He also said the losses to UNI and Illinois St proved the early season losses to Alabama, USC, Tulsa, etc. weren't outliers but that WSU is an average team with several teams ahead of them on the bubble. He doesn't think WSU would even be that close to getting an automatic bid because "they just have beaten anybody ".

[Dave Stalwart]

I think WSU may be very close to the 12th best team in the country right now. He may think it's ridiculous to say that, but I think it's ridiculous to think otherwise.

WSU is 19-3 since getting back to full strength and they are pounding people right now. Trending in the right direction at the right time. They can look the other way I guess. Resistance is futile.

[XManCometh]

So, REALLY what we want to know is whether we'd be replaced by one of the current "last 4" if we don't get an automatic. It seems we are in, in that case. Perhaps a low seed, but at least in.

At this point if we lose one more game I'd be happy with a "First Four" game at the very least. Not saying we'd drop that far if we only lose one more and that was in the Valley title game, but I just want to get in the tournament. It'd be a disaster if Fred, Ron and Evan didn't make the NCAA tournament their senior seasons. But as much as I think Palm isn't very good at his job, he's right. We really haven't beaten anyone all season. We need to get to at least 25 wins to make us look like a tournament team. Luckily for us we're dismantling teams right now and don't really have anyone in our way for awhile. Going into Selection Sunday with 8 straight blowout wins is going to look really good.

We just need to win 5 more games so we don't have to worry about Selection Sunday. Only where to buy our tickets for the games.