2016 Bracketology

[ShockBand]

Preach it Fever! How awesome is this new alliance?!?!

You guys are kind of weirding me out...

[ShockerFever]

Preach it Fever! How awesome is this new alliance?!?!

I'm happy to find something in common with you for the first time in 2 1/2 years. I'm not sure what it all means but hopefully the sun doesn't explode in the next 24 hours.

[SHOXAAC]

I'm happy to find something in common with you for the first time in 2 1/2 years. I'm not sure what it all means but hopefully the sun doesn't explode in the next 24 hours.

This is how man crushes are born.

[ShockerPrez]

I'm happy to find something in common with you for the first time in 2 1/2 years. I'm not sure what it all means but hopefully the sun doesn't explode in the next 24 hours.

This is what FVV was talking about when he said the team was almost peaking!!

[Eric]

More DRAMA on this thread than a Women's Sewing Circle. lol

Firmalky known as "Stitch 'n' B*^•"

[molly jabali]

This is how man crushes are born.

Politics make strange bedfellows....:)

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

2011 Gonzaga - #11 Seed
KenPom - 35
RPI - 56
24-9
2-4 vs KP top 50
4-3 vs KP 51-100
18-2 vs KP 100+

Gonzaga received the auto-bid that year. Usually the last at large team receives a 12 seed, so as an 11, it appears that Gonzaga's resume would have been good enough for an at large bid if needed.


2016 WSU
KenPom - 12
RPI - 33
16-5
1-3 vs KP top 50
3-2 vs KP 51-100
12-0 vs KP 100+

If WSU finishes 10-2 down the stretch and 26-7 overall, they will have a better KenPom, better RPI, better overall W/L record, similar top 50 and top 100 numbers, and better 100+ numbers. All of that is without even looking at how shorthanded WSU was early in the year.

27-6 is absolutely not on the bubble, and 26-7 probably still gets in, BEFORE accounting for injuries.

Cheer up folks. WSU is safely in. Period.

@ Jamar Howard 4 President Research the Zags 2003 and 2008 seasons for me, they will tell us a lot. Remember this is after the Zags have built up "Street Cred", which is where we are now

2008 Gonzaga - #7 Seed
KenPom - 27
RPI - 34
25-7
5-5 vs KP top 50
2-1 vs KP 51-100
18-1 vs KP 100+

2003 Gonzaga - #9 Seed
KenPom - 34
RPI - 43
23-8
2-5 vs KP top 50
3-1 vs KP 51-100
18-2 vs KP 100+ (both losses in February to teams ranked 200+)


Hey guys. I'm not sure if you were aware or not, but the 2015-2016 Shockers are IN BY A MILE!

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

And this was my main point that is thanks to the Valley conference. Being in this conference we have to hit the ground running and win our non-conference games because in most years the Valley will not help us with resume building wins. In years that we have injuries or a team with a bunch of newcomers that take a while to coalesce and play at a winning level we are not going to be helped by our conference in most seasons.

So we have very little margin for error. Teams in better conferences can make up for slow starts with resume building wins over their conference foes. We don't have that luxury.

This year will directly disprove your theory that WSU "must hit the ground running in non-conf". Just wait. After a fairly miserable non-conf on paper, and now via a weak MVC, WSU is going to be a dancing with a quality seed.

You vastly underestimate the resume WSU is building by dominating night after night and putting together a LONG winning streak. The KenPom ranking recognizes this. The pollsters (who are a pretty dumb group) are recognizing this, as shown by WSU being the 3rd highest ranked team in the country with 5 losses, in February, when BCS schools have had time to rack up "quality losses". Indiana, Arizona, South Carolina, Michigan, and Pittsburgh were all behind the Shox this past Monday in the AP poll despite none of them having any more losses than the Shox. Freaking Kentucky was only 1 spot ahead of WSU with their 5 losses. Maybe they should "ask for their money back", so to speak, as their BCS conferences don't appear to be delivering the goods.

The committee, who isn't perfect, but is smarter than the pollsters, will recognize the Shockers' run. Building a resume through nightly whoopings looks different than building one via a tough SOS, but at the end of the day, WSU will be a strong team with a strong seed. Go Shox!

[WSUwatcher]

This year will directly disprove your theory that WSU "must hit the ground running in non-conf". Just wait. After a fairly miserable non-conf on paper, and now via a weak MVC, WSU is going to be a dancing with a quality seed.

You vastly underestimate the resume WSU is building by dominating night after night and putting together a LONG winning streak. The KenPom ranking recognizes this. The pollsters (who are a pretty dumb group) are recognizing this, as shown by WSU being the 3rd highest ranked team in the country with 5 losses, in February, when BCS schools have had time to rack up "quality losses". Indiana, Arizona, South Carolina, Michigan, and Pittsburgh were all behind the Shox this past Monday in the AP poll despite none of them having any more losses than the Shox. Freaking Kentucky was only 1 spot ahead of WSU with their 5 losses. Maybe they should "ask for their money back", so to speak, as their BCS conferences don't appear to be delivering the goods.

The committee, who isn't perfect, but is smarter than the pollsters, will recognize the Shockers' run. Building a resume through nightly whoopings looks different than building one via a tough SOS, but at the end of the day, WSU will be a strong team with a strong seed. Go Shox!

Amen, brother! Hallelujah!

[_kai_]

I'm happy to find something in common with you for the first time in 2 1/2 years. I'm not sure what it all means but hopefully the sun doesn't explode in the next 24 hours.

I like this a lot.

[WSUwatcher]

Nobody said that.

However, many are way overestimating the likelihood of it falling later this season.

Actually, JH, the guy who said it -- although admittedly not in those exact words -- is the same dizzle who asked the question. Here's his quote: "Not making the tournament (would be a disaster)...We need to win out." Considering that warren Nolan, whose numbers I checked because I can get into them easily, unlike the KenPom win probabilities, gives WSU less than a 20% chance of sweeping their remaining regular season games (presumably what dizzle is referring to, inasmuch as winning the three in St. Louis solves all problems, real or imagined), that sounds pretty much like the "sky is falling" to me. A 1-in-5 chance of doing something that has to be done isn't great.

I'll give dizzle this: He added, "Fortunately, I think we can." So he thinks the Shocks are at least capable of cashing that 20% ticket (as do I -- I've said more than once previously on here that I thought WSU had a chance to go all season without losing to a Valley opponenet, although I agree with you that they don't need to). But all that really means is that dizzle also believes WSU can dodge the chunks of sky as they're crashing down.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Considering that warren Nolan, whose numbers I checked because I can get into them easily, unlike the KenPom win probabilities, gives WSU less than a 20% chance of sweeping their remaining regular season games

I see WN has WSU as a 76% favorite tonight. That seems ridiculously low. Do the Shox really lose 1 out of 4, at home, to SIU? I doubt it. If he has WSU as 70-85% favorites each game instead of 85-95%, I can see why the overall chance of winning out would be low. I think WN has the Shox vastly underrated from a predictive standpoint. Using their RPI (32) isn't very accurate for predictive purposes when clearly they should be top 25, probably top 20, minimum.

KP has the Shox at #11 today overall and gives them a 44% chance of winning the final 9 games. Ken puts tonight at 93%.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Huge jump for WSU after dominating Evansville yesterday. Now up to 0.9123 and #12 overall.

WSU is #11 in KP this morning with a rating of 0.9148 after last night's 21 point win over SIU.

Chances of winning out until St. Louis now listed at 48%.

As an interesting side note, Iowa has overtaken OU as KP's #1.
Iowa - 0.9436
OU - 0.9424

KU one spot behind the Shox at #12, but a modest distance behind WSU in pure rating with a rating of 0.9082

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

How weird would it be if the 7th place game in Orlando (Iowa vs WSU) was actually a preview of a Final Four game in Houston to be played a mere 4-1/2 months later?!

[WSUwatcher]

WSU is #11 in KP this morning with a rating of 0.9148 after last night's 21 point win over SIU.

Chances of winning out until St. Louis now listed at 48%.

As an interesting side note, Iowa has overtaken OU as KP's #1.
Iowa - 0.9436
OU - 0.9424

KU one spot behind the Shox at #12, but a modest distance behind WSU in pure rating with a rating of 0.9082

Maryland is shown at .9169, so the top ten -- at least for KenPom -- is not that far out of reach. Illinois State will be an interesting roadblock. And you're right: that Iowa rematch in the tournament would be quite a turnabout.