2016 Bracketology

[GreatWhiteBuffalo]

Well when Fred and Ron play like ass, that's what happens.

Has happened far too often this year.

[GreatWhiteBuffalo]

This team just doesn't seem to be playing with any urgency in my opinion. At least I'd say the upperclassmen don't look invested in the outcome. Hope I'm wrong and the urgency becomes apparent.

Agreed. Play Angry is a distant memory

[shox526]

Agreed. Play Angry is a distant memory

As I recall the genesis of Play Angry was the Big Dog's speech to the team after a couple unexpected losses in the Valley in February. Time for that I again I think. And I'll take the results that followed that year again this year.

[molly jabali]

Agreed

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

This team just doesn't seem to be playing with any urgency in my opinion. At least I'd say the upperclassmen don't look invested in the outcome. Hope I'm wrong and the urgency becomes apparent.

The upperclassmen don't look invested in the outcome? Go away and take your insulting garbage with you. Fred, Ron, and Evan have given it their all ever since they got here. That includes days like today.

[proshox]

JH4P - I am curious if you standby your thoughts that KenPoms numbers can't be manipulated by playing bad teams or teams that are performing poorly. It is amazing to me how coming across one ok opponent has exposed a number of weaknesses in our offense.

Our Kenpom number would be worse in the Big East.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

JH4P - I am curious if you standby your thoughts that KenPoms numbers can't be manipulated by playing bad teams or teams that are performing poorly. It is amazing to me how coming across one ok opponent has exposed a number of weaknesses in our offense.

Our Kenpom number would be worse in the Big East.

Take a look at George Washington, who has played many "bad teams" just like the Shockers.

KP Ranks: WSU is #18. George Washington is #90
Their records are identical. Both are 18-7.
Their SOSs are nearly identical. 94 vs 105.

Why isn't GW getting the love? GW has 11 of 18 wins by 10 or less. WSU has 2.

GW has been regularly challenged by weak opponents. They've won most of them, but often just barely. WSU hasn't been challenged nearly as often. KenPom is a good ranking system because it differentiates between teams like WSU and GW.

Regarding the "coming across one ok opponent" and being "exposed", I disagree with your premise. Utah and Evansville are at the very least "ok". UNLV was playing well at the time WSU played them. WSU was neck and neck with a good USC team despite being short handed.

Sure, WSU has suffered 2 painful losses recently, but I don't expect a lot more 6/27 or 7/31 performances from 3. Don't get too down on this team. The season long metrics still look good. I never agreed with the sunshine pumpers that WSU was a significant title contender, but they are definitely a top 50, probably top 30 level team with veteran guards capable of helping them beat just about anyone on a given night.

[ShockerFever]

You know, I've talked to tons of fanbases. Other valley fanbases, KU fans, Chiefs and Royals and Cardinals fans, fans of Kentucky and Louisville. This is the ONLY fanbase where I've seen with such absolute hostility towards negativity. Are you afraid that the tent will collapse if we don't pump it full of sunshine? Wichita State will never go back to what it was in 90s, we don't have to be delusional and aggressive. We have sucked, hard, two out of the last three games. Negativity is the natural reaction to that, not assuming we will win 6 or 7 of our last 8 games. I want us to win 14 in a row, but I just came away from a game that was as poorly played as any we've had in the last half-decade. I'm not going to be positive and full of sunshine and hopeful about our chances when I see something like that. When we were winning Valley games by 20 points a game I was happy and hopeful because the product on the court was good. When we are losing every other game I'm going to be negative and pessimistic because the product I see is bad. If you can't handle other Wichita State fans, maybe you are the one that doesn't want to be a part of the fanbase.

No, you're just an idiot.

[KC Shox]

You know, I've talked to tons of fanbases. Other valley fanbases, KU fans, Chiefs and Royals and Cardinals fans, fans of Kentucky and Louisville. This is the ONLY fanbase where I've seen with such absolute hostility towards negativity. Are you afraid that the tent will collapse if we don't pump it full of sunshine? Wichita State will never go back to what it was in 90s, we don't have to be delusional and aggressive. We have sucked, hard, two out of the last three games. Negativity is the natural reaction to that, not assuming we will win 6 or 7 of our last 8 games. I want us to win 14 in a row, but I just came away from a game that was as poorly played as any we've had in the last half-decade. I'm not going to be positive and full of sunshine and hopeful about our chances when I see something like that. When we were winning Valley games by 20 points a game I was happy and hopeful because the product on the court was good. When we are losing every other game I'm going to be negative and pessimistic because the product I see is bad. If you can't handle other Wichita State fans, maybe you are the one that doesn't want to be a part of the fanbase.

"Never" is a strong word. I agree with you with the caveat, that while GM is still here, we will never fall back to 1990s level of basketball. Hopefully, GM will coach here until he is 70. Then we can start worrying about our next coach then :)

[proshox]

Take a look at George Washington, who has played many "bad teams" just like the Shockers.

KP Ranks: WSU is #18. George Washington is #90
Their records are identical. Both are 18-7.
Their SOSs are nearly identical. 94 vs 105.

Why isn't GW getting the love? GW has 11 of 18 wins by 10 or less. WSU has 2.

GW has been regularly challenged by weak opponents. They've won most of them, but often just barely. WSU hasn't been challenged nearly as often. KenPom is a good ranking system because it differentiates between teams like WSU and GW.

Regarding the "coming across one ok opponent" and being "exposed", I disagree with your premise. Utah and Evansville are at the very least "ok". UNLV was playing well at the time WSU played them. WSU was neck and neck with a good USC team despite being short handed.

Sure, WSU has suffered 2 painful losses recently, but I don't expect a lot more 6/27 or 7/31 performances from 3. Don't get too down on this team. The season long metrics still look good. I never agreed with the sunshine pumpers that WSU was a significant title contender, but they are definitely a top 50, probably top 30 level team with veteran guards capable of helping them beat just about anyone on a given night.

You are coming around to my original hypothesis:-) If WSU in your estimation is around a top 30 team, our bell curve of actual results would move towards more losses in a league like the Big East.

The most important criteria for WSU to stay elevated is to go to the tournament every year. I happen to think the easier the league is, the more likely it is that our standard distribution of wins (total number and streaks) keeps us in the tournament.

Going to the NCAA for WSU is priority number one. In Arch Madnes alone (We should get two easy games and one challenging one) is a huge advantage vs. a better league.

It has taking a lot of odd bounces for our window to close. Hopefully some of them can start going our way.

[CBB_Fan]

Take a look at George Washington, who has played many "bad teams" just like the Shockers.

KP Ranks: WSU is #18. George Washington is #90
Their records are identical. Both are 18-7.
Their SOSs are nearly identical. 94 vs 105.

Why isn't GW getting the love? GW has 11 of 18 wins by 10 or less. WSU has 2.

GW has been regularly challenged by weak opponents. They've won most of them, but often just barely. WSU hasn't been challenged nearly as often. KenPom is a good ranking system because it differentiates between teams like WSU and GW.

Regarding the "coming across one ok opponent" and being "exposed", I disagree with your premise. Utah and Evansville are at the very least "ok". UNLV was playing well at the time WSU played them. WSU was neck and neck with a good USC team despite being short handed.

Sure, WSU has suffered 2 painful losses recently, but I don't expect a lot more 6/27 or 7/31 performances from 3. Don't get too down on this team. The season long metrics still look good. I never agreed with the sunshine pumpers that WSU was a significant title contender, but they are definitely a top 50, probably top 30 level team with veteran guards capable of helping them beat just about anyone on a given night.

I do not disagree that we are better than GW, to start out with.

But I certainly do expect 6/27 performances from 3. Why? Because that is how this team loses. We've defaulted to it time and time again. @ Tulsa 8-26. vs USC 9-29. vs Alabama, 10-30. vs Iowa, 6-22. @ Seton Hall, 14-30. @ Illinois State, 6-27. vs UNI 7-31. Context for those numbers. We shoot 34%, making us the #207th best 3PT shooting team in country. The average team shoots a little more than twenty 3s a game. We shoot 30.7% in losses and take 27.9 3s per loss. We shoot 36.1% and take 19 3s per win.

In other words, our shooting is slightly below average. But when we lose, our shooting is bad and we suddenly start shooting a lot more. We've reverted to this play pattern too often to expect us to go through the rest of the season without 1 or 2 more awful nights. We don't do it every time we face an above average team, but when we do we are a strikingly mediocre basketball team.

Now I'll address the issue from the other side. Clemson is a mediocre basketball team. Most bracket-makers do not have them in their first 4 out. Clemson has an RPI and a KenPom below Wichita State's. They have 3 bad losses to our 2, but their 3 are considerably worse. However, Clemson is 6-6 against the top 50 and 7-7 against the top 100. We are 1-4 against the top 50, 3-5 against the top 100.

Statistically, we are without a doubt a stronger program. But Clemson has done far more to earn an NCAA bid, in terms of winning important games. How much value can the selection committee put into eye tests and stats when Clemson has literally won 6 times as many top 50 games, and twice as many top 100 games with a better winning percentage? I'm not arguing for Clemson over us, because there are other factors that screw them out of a slot (non-con SoS 339 for example), but Clemson was just an example to prove a point.

The committee has to value record at some level. We will still be 1-4 or 1-5 against the top 50 in March (if Seton Hall moves up). They might not take a Clemson over us, but there are definitely teams that have done more to "earn" an at-large bid than us that are closer in terms of KenPom, RPI, scoring margin, etc.

[ShockerFever]

I bet this nutjob was really fun to be around on December 21, 2012.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I certainly do expect 6/27 performances from 3. Why? Because that is how this team loses. We've defaulted to it time and time again. @ Tulsa 8-26. vs USC 9-29. vs Alabama, 10-30. vs Iowa, 6-22. @ Seton Hall, 14-30. @ Illinois State, 6-27. vs UNI 7-31.

So you expect more 22% performances, and as proof, you show other examples of WSU, mostly minus Fred and Conner, shooting 31%, 31%, 33%, 27%, and 47%? Your own stats of WSU's previous losses show how unlikely 22% is! The "time and time again" comment is silly.

[jdshock]

@ Seton Hall, 14-30

JH4P handled it better than I will... but I just want to add:

I would love to shoot 47% from 3 in the rest of our games. That's equivalent to 70% from 2.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Prone to rate WSU lower than most, goober Jerry Palm had WSU as a 10 seed yesterday morning. This morning, he updated and dropped WSU to a 12, but they are not on his last 4 in list, so apparently they are at least a few spots away from the exact cut off.

http://cbsprt.co/Bracketology

If WSU wins their last 5 and then loses in the semis or the finals, 6-1 or 7-1 will be at worst a net neutral for their resume. At that point, even nay sayers like Palm will likely have WSU in their field. I stand by my claim that WSU has 1 more loss to spare, either regular season or in St. Louis.